National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221727 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND THIS MAY AID IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER A LITTLE THICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL KEEP MVFR
CIGS INTACT AT KHRL THROUGH 19Z AND THROUGH 20Z AT KBRO. DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD BASES TO RISE ABOVE MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DID OPT TO KEEP BKN AT KBRO AND KHRL. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING...STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 02Z KBRO...03Z KHRL AND 04Z KMFE. WITH CONTINUED
COOLING...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO IFR AROUND 07Z. LATE IN THE
PERIOD... CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT INTO MVFR AROUND 15Z. WE DID KEEP A
MENTION OF BR OVERNIGHT AND HZ TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. ON GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF IFR TO CONTINUE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING. LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIXING OUT/LIFT BETWEEN
14 AND 16Z. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO AROUND 4 MILES IN
SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNS
IN YUCATAN MEXICO. SOME OF THIS HAZE TO MIX WITH SOME VSBY TO
IMPROVE TODAY. SOUTHEAST WIND TO BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281. LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 3Z THURSDAY BUT COULD DEVELOP
CLOSER TO 06Z IN MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 90S WEST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AGRICULTURAL FIRES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF YUCATAN WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF SMOKE/HAZE
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...QUIET AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WAS INHERITED FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
AND THAT TREND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BROAD
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...PRODUCING THE ANTICIPATED DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR NORMAL VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS
AROUND 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

24/05