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000
FXUS64 KBRO 141926
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS WEST
TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
DEEP SOUTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS FOR ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZAPATA AND SOUTHWEST STARR WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH AND WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BACK IN CONTROL BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BAJA CA
TO FLA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY
AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH SAGS ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE TO REESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. SCATTERED
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF SOUTH
TEXAS. WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON AND TUE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GFS IS STILL ADVERTISING A
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WED AND
THU. SYSTEM IS WEAKER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER RUNS
AND MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE SYSTEM COULD
STILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...SO
EXPANDED THE 10 PERCENT SILENT POPS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WITH DRIER MID LEVELS AND STRONGER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE EXPECTED
KEPT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF. HEAT INDICIES TO RUN FROM 105 TO NEAR 110 ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DRY FORECAST. NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AS WEAK
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DEVELOPS. SEAS TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  92  80  90 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  92 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            77  96  78  93 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78  98  79  96 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 100  78  98 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  90  81  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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