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000
FXUS64 KBRO 130847
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
347 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LOW OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN RETROGRADE A
LITTLE MORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE ENTERS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND
THE UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WINDS TODAY AND WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

EVEN THOUGH THERE IS BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW OUT
WEST...IT APPEARS THAT DIFFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
PWATS WILL DECREASE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AS COMPARED TO LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE BIT
WITH THE HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER FROM RIO GRANDE CITY TO
BROWNSVILLE AND EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COMPARABLE TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

PWATS BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POPS WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE WITH DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS COMING ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY ALONG THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE 500MB TROUGH TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW TO MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING
TO OUR WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHWRS/TSTMS
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OR THE MEXICAN SIERRAS WITH THE UPPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTING THE STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. POP FORECAST
TRENDS ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAPPERS
OFF WEST TO EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY REMAINING FORCING AND
DIVERGENT FLOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY BUT
THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MID
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENDING THE
RAIN CHANCES. GFS IS QUICKER TO PUSH THE RAIN TO THE EAST WITH
THE ECMWF MAINTAINING CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GFS HAS
BEEN HANDLING THE POPS WELL AS OF LATE SO WILL TREND WITH THE
QUICKER ENDING TO OUR NICE WET PERIOD.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY TRENDING TOWARDS SUMMER NORMALS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SHOW A STEADILY DAILY INCREASE ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEING THE NORM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND STEADY STATE MODERATE SEAS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UNIFORM CONDITIONS
ARE DUE TO BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRES NORTHEAST
MEXICO EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES INCREASE
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK STRONGER WINDS MAY
RESULT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY FURTHER STRENGTHEN OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD RESULTS IN WINDS AND SEAS EXCEEDING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  72  82  73 /  30  30  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          83  70  83  72 /  30  30  30  40
HARLINGEN            84  69  84  72 /  30  30  30  40
MCALLEN              84  70  85  72 /  30  30  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  70  87  71 /  30  30  50  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  71  79  74 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM