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000
FXUS64 KBRO 141757 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 2200FT AT KAPY TO NEAR 3500FT KMFE.
500MB LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS MIXING DECREASES WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST MAY EDGE SOME
ISOLD TO SCT CELLS INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS TODAY.
HOWEVER MORNING LOW CLDS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE VALUES RESULTING IN SOME IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PUSH THE CEILINGS
BACK UP TO VFR LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE CONV FROM YESTERDAY
EVENING AND LAST NIGHT HAS DIMINISHED OVER SOUTH TX WHILE FURTHER
WEST OVER CENTRAL MEX A LARGE CONV COMPLEX PERSISTS. THE 500 MB
CLOSED WHICH HELPED FIRE OFF THIS CONV IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SLOWLY
NORTHWARDS TODAY AND SAT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER 500 MB
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AWAY FROM DEEP SOUTH TX MORE
TOWARDS WEST AND CENTRAL TX. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THIS IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS THAT THE
PWAT LOCALLY HAS DIPPED BELOW 2 INCHES WITH A CAPE AROUND 2725 J/KG.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLOW BUT STEADY
DRYING OF THE ATMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TODAY AND SAT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV TRENDS. BOTH THE MAV AND MET POPS
HAVE TREND POPS DOWN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MFE AREA WHERE THE
NAM GUIDANCE STILL MAINTAINS AROUND 60 % POPS TODAY. THE ECMWF POPS
LEAN CLOSER TO THE DRIER MAV NUMBERS AND HAVE THROWN OUT THE MET
NUMBERS AS TOO OVERDONE.

SO WILL LEAVE THE BEST CHC POPS OUT WEST WITH SLGT CHC POPS EAST DUE
TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEING CLOSER TO THE 500 MB LOW AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY.

THE OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM  /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A TROPICAL FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OR BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 100 OVER THE FAR WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS A SE
WIND AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 3 FEET WHILE MTRPIL REPORTS
A SE WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. AS MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX FAIRLY STATUS QUO CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS MARINE
AREA.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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61/51/MARTINEZ