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000
FXUS64 KBRO 182307 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
607 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO DEVELOP WITH
AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 77 AND 281 BEING THE MOST AFFECTED. VERY
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO SATURATED A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
DEVELOPING A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS BETWEEN 15-25K FEET. DRIER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX THROUGH THIS LAYER WITH FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD STEADILY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD MAINTAINING A PRETTY DRY ATMS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS BRING A VORT LOBE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE TX COASTLINE TOMORROW. NORMALLY THIS MAY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE CONV TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ABSENT OVER THE REGION. WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LEFT OF T.D.
TWO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH TOWARDS THE RGV AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
POOLED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX AWAY FROM TX. SO WILL GO NIL POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH FAIRLY SPARSE CLD COVER EXPECTED.

THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOW PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS HERE. THE NAM AND
ECMWF HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE GFS FOR TOMORROWS HIGH. THE NAM
AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND WILL GO CLOSER
TO THIS OVERALL TREND VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS HIGH TEMPS FOR
WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RIDGING ACROSS TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL GO WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES EACH
DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN THAT THE SEABREEZE SPURS SOME PRECIPITATION STARTING
SUNDAY. MODELS TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL DRAW FURTHER
NORTH...WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL FINALLY GO UNDERNEATH IT
INTO TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SETUP HAS BEEN
SHOWN DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND IS CONDUCIVE FOR SEABREEZE
FORMATION...HAVE OPTED TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN THE US77 AND US281 CORRIDORS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE S-SE
FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO PUSH UP INTO SCEC TERRITORY BRIEFLY OVER THE
SHORT TERM. THE T.D. TWO OR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.
NHC DOES EXPECTS THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN A T.D. AS IT LIMPS ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THIS GENERAL LACK OF ORGANIZATION
EXPECTED THE OVERALL SWELL IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE VERY
MINIMAL OR NON-EXISTENT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WILL KEEP THE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN MARINE THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHER LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS EMANATING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THESE WILL FADE OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING SEAS
GENERALLY 4 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
68...LONG TERM