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000
FXUS64 KBRO 170627 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED LOW LEVEL SC DECKS
FORMING UP MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WITH SOME PATCHY CI MOVING
OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM THE LOWER RGV INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY
MAINTAINING IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER SUNRISE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MIXING WILL ERODE AWAY THE CEILINGS ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. THE NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL THEN REFORM AGAIN
LATE FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME MORE PATCHY LOW SC FROM 06
TO 12Z SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CU FIELD LIMITED TO AREAS AROUND KBRO THIS
EVENING...WHILE BREEZES OF 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 STILL
NOTED. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT. EVENING
BALLOON SOUNDING SHOWED INVERSION STILL IN PLACE AT 2000 FEET...SO
CIGS OVERNIGHT SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 700 TO 1000. WITH CIGS THIS
LOW...SOME HAZY BR IS EXPECTED...BUT ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP BR FROM GETTING ANY THICKER. SKY COVER WILL THIN OUT EARLY
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25KTS GUSTING TO 30.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LACK OF
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID/UPPER RIDING WILL
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LIMITED LOW MOISTURE AND THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE INCREASES BY LATE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES REACHING 1.80 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN/MENTION 10 POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BUILD
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND ALLOW SCA
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN
STATES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  75  87  76 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  74  89  76 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            92  75  92  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              94  77  97  75 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  75  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  75  83  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...68