Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231946
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast for
the next 36 hours as H5 ridge dominates South Texas. Drier air
continues to feed into midlevels, with dry air all the way down to
4000 feet...with deeper moisture trapped underneath. H7
temperatures remaining above 12C will also help to cap off the
atmosphere, keeping rain chances out of the picture. LLVL moisture
still able to bubble up under the cap, so skies will remain mostly
cloudy today and again tomorrow. Low pressure across the Permian
Basin will interact with high pressure across the eastern U.S. to
bring gusty SE winds during the day tomorrow. Forecast guidance
for temperatures looks good through the next 36 hours, so minimal
changes needed, with highs tomorrow in the mid 90s and lows
tonight and tomorrow in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): On Wednesday, the center
of upper level high pressure will migrate west to east just to
south of Brownsville that will bring one last day that is
precipitation-free to the Rio Grande Valley. On Wednesday night,
thunderstorms look to fire over the Sierra Madre in old Mexico and
drift east into the valley. On Thursday, the upper level high
pressure will begin to break down and move east into the western
Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a weak shortwave trough will move
across the forecast area from west to east and this will bring
increased chances of thunderstorms to the region Thursday
afternoon/evening. Weak low pressure will remain over deep south
Texas on Friday with continued chances of showers/thunderstorms.
Though temperatures will remain somewhat above normal in the Wed-
Fri time frame, additional cloud cover and lower
heights/thicknesses will cut a couple of degrees off of daytime
highs Thu-Fri. Hot days with humid conditions all hours will
persist.

On Saturday, the Rio Grande Valley will once again come under the
influence of a weak ridge of high pressure extending up from
central Mexico, and the ridge looks to hang around through Monday.
Temperatures will generally remain somewhat above normal across
the entire region for the three day period. Despite the developing
ridge of high pressure slight chances of showers/thunderstorms
will continue through the end of the long term forecast period.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Tuesday night): Considerable interaction
between low pressure across West Texas and high pressure across
the eastern U.S. will cause southeasterly winds to continue to be
gusty across the marine areas through the next 36 hours. The
southeasterly fetch extends across most of the western Gulf, so
this will continue to create longer period swells. Seas currently
around 5 feet will remain at this state through tomorrow night.

Wednesday through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and seas
will dominate through a majority of the period with high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting intensely with thermal low
pressure over northern Mexico and low pressure in the Central
Plains. Wind and sea conditions may improve in the Sun-Mon time
frame, but Small Craft Exercise Caution may still be needed.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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