Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241139 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE TEMPORARILY LIFTED...BUT THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY HAVE A BIT OF ENERGY
LEFT IN IT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BUILT INTO THE TAFS FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANY REMAINING
RESIDUAL RAIN CHANCES. VFR TAFS OTHERWISE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TRUNDLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HAS PROMPTED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WEATHER CATEGORIZATION
FROM SPC. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...CONFIRMING THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING...BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT RADAR ALSO SHOWS MORE DEVELOPMENT TO
THE SOUTH...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SOME CONVECTION
WILL NOT KEEP COMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW SOME QPF
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD END THIS EVENING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR THE MARINE
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE INTRUSION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COMBINES WITH
DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH NO OTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGES OR SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO HIGH END MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. HIGH END
MODERATE WINDS WILL REPEAT ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE
AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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