Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 261828 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...Morning low cloud deck has dissipated and lifted,
generally established around 6000 feet this afternoon. A band of
light showers is moving westward across the region, and will
likely impact KMFE within the next hour or so. Upstream obs have
shown minimal changes in the showers, with tempo lower cigs, but
not much in the way of vis reductions. Ran chances otherwise will
remain minimal at the remaining locations. Cloud cover will
remain overnight, with some brief lowering of cigs to 1500 at
inland locations. Models are also showing some light fog
formation, so have added tempo grouping for those events. Sunday
will be breezier, with winds around 15 knots during the day.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Showers are in the immediate vicinity of MFE, while
BRO and HRL remain dry. VFR will prevail today as winds gradually
veer with higher cloudiness in place. Isolated to scattered
convection currently over the Lower Texas coastal waters will
need to be monitored, and may need to be included in amended TAFs
before the next official issuance. Tonight, surface winds will
continue to veer with mostly cloudy skies remaining.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A stationary front within Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and weak inverted surface
troughiness along the Lower Texas Coast will produce isolated
showers within the BRO CWFA today. As these two features fade and a
weak 500 mb ridge becomes positioned directly over the region, drier
weather will prevail tonight and Sunday. Warming and well above
normal temperatures are expected through the next 36 hours due to a
redeveloping and intensifying onshore flow.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Surface high pressure
across the Gulf will interact with lower pressure over the Plains
Sunday night and Monday. This will result in moderate southeast
winds with mild overnight low temperatures Sunday night. A cold
front will approach Deep South Texas from the north on Monday.
Breezy to windy south winds can be expected on Monday with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s, which will be well
above normal and may be close to records for this time of year.
Winds will gradually weaken and become northwesterly late in the day
with the approach of the cold front. Some convective is possible
along the front but most of the activity should remain north of the
CWA. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday night
into Tuesday with the front, but should be mainly across the Gulf
waters. Low temperatures Monday night will fall into the 50s and 60s
with high temperatures on Tuesday in the low to mid 80s.
Reinforcing high pressure will arrive Tuesday night with a secondary
and stronger cold front Wednesday morning. This boundary will
generate a better chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the
area. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s with clearing
skies and breezy north winds.
Low temperatures will fall into the 40s across the Ranchlands to the
lower 50s near the coast as mostly clear skies prevail. High
temperatures Thursday will be in the 70s as high pressure settles
across region. Surface high pressure moves east by Thursday night
resulting in the return of onshore flow and increasing moisture.
MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported northeast winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over
4.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 02 CST/08 UTC. Moderate winds
and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast today and tonight
as surface high pressure prevails and moderate swells approach from
roughly the east-southeast. A strengthening of the surface pressure
gradient on Sunday will lead to stronger winds and possibly higher
seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are
likely for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters during
the forecast period.
Sunday Night through Wednesday: Ongoing adverse marine conditions
will likely continue through late Monday due strong winds and
building seas ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift
to the northeast and become moderate in the wake the cold front
late Monday night. Strong north winds will develop early Wednesday
as reinforcing surface high pressure arrives. Seas will build to
between 8 and 10 feet across the Lower Texas Gulf waters Sunday
night into Monday. Seas subside briefly Monday night into Tuesday
before seas build again Wednesday with reinforcing high pressure.
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