Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 291144 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
644 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms southeast of
Brownsville over the Gulf are moving northwest and north along
the coast. The convection should generally stay out of reach of
the local aerodromes this morning, but won`t rule out a stray
cell moving overhead. The current VFR conditions should continue
today with a mix of clouds and sun, along with light to moderate
southeast winds as high pressure centered over the Gulf remains
in control on the large scale. A sea breeze moving inland from
the coast will be possible today, with sct to bkn skies along the
sea breeze front, but still VFR conditions overall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500 mb high pressure will be
centered both over the Desert Southwest and off the Eastern Seaboard
during the forecast period, with a weakness in between these two
systems along the Texas coastline and over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Meanwhile, two individual pulses of deep tropical moisture
will move into the BRO CWFA today and Saturday when daytime heating
will be in effect. The result of this pattern will be isolated
showers and thunderstorms for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley today and tomorrow, with streamer activity not anticipated
over the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight due to a brief drop in
available tropical moisture. Well above normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures are likely due to limited cloud cover,
limited rain chances, and ongoing dry soils.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): 500 mb ridging will
build over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday into early
next week. The mid-level ridge is expected to move to the north by
Thursday as an inverted mid-level trough approaches from the east.
Subsidence at the surface and aloft will result in hot and
generally rain- free conditions across Deep South Texas through
the period. No changes were made to the inherited highs and lows
which are already near to above seasonal normals.

MARINE (Today through Saturday): Buoy 42020 reported south-
southeast winds around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas
of 3 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. Light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas will prevail for the Lower
Texas coastal waters during the forecast period with surface high
pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be
needed.

Saturday night through Tuesday night: Broad surface high pressure
will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through midweek. Light to
moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected
along lower Texas coast through Tuesday night. Exercise caution
cautions possible on the Laguna Madre each afternoon due to
slightly stronger winds.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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