Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 170125 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&



.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 80 87 / 30 50 20 40
BROWNSVILLE         77 90 78 88 / 30 50 20 40
HARLINGEN           77 92 78 89 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN             77 93 78 91 / 30 40 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY     76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  80 87 81 85 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICAS/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ





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