Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 011834 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER THE MORNING LOW CLDS AND FOG DISSIPATED SOME
FAIR WX CU FORMED UP DURING THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKED UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE FAIR WX CU TO LINGER ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING EXPECT A SOMEWHAT SATURATED
LOW LEVEL LAYER TO FORM UP OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.
THE NAM HAS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS VERSUS THE GFS. ANY OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS THAT FORM WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM GUIDANCE VERSUS
THE GFS AS THE NAM BRINGS IN LOWER CEILINGS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION ANY IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 1/4SM WITH FOG AT KHBV TO NEAR 5SM WITH FOG
AT KPIL AND KEBG. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 15Z AS THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF
WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL LIKELY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS
TEXAS...WITH UPPER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT...ARRIVING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ONLY MODEL OUTLIER IS THE NAM...WHICH IS LAGGING BEHIND A FULL 18
TO 24 HOURS INTO SATURDAY...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION. DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME EARLY
FRIDAY TO GET DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES WITH CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT TEMPS. SATURDAY MORNING THE DRY
AIR RETURNS FROM THE NW...LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND FUEL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO KICK SOME OF THE
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OUT...SO A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND RANCHLANDS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS
TO AROUND 90.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO
NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A RESULT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX THURS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP SQUALL
LINE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NE
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH SEAS SUSTAINED AT 4
TO 5 FEET. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  90  79  87 /  10  20  30  50
BROWNSVILLE          79  91  78  88 /  10  20  30  50
HARLINGEN            79  93  77  89 /  10  20  30  50
MCALLEN              79  94  77  89 /  10  10  30  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  96  77  89 /  10  10  30  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  88  80  85 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...58
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ




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