Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KBRO 281146 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LOW CLOUD DECKS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO AT
MFE FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME BREEZY LATER MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
01Z WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS 500 MB RIDGING NEAR THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH BROAD WEAKNESS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS STREAMER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-69E/HWY 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNRISE.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DRIER GFS/NAM AND THE
WETTER ECMWF MOS NUMBERS. SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY/...THE 500 MB
TROFFING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER
48 STATES WITH A LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN STATES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THEN
RIDE UP OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENING IT DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE
BROAD PATTERN OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WITH A SERIES OF PULSES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE
POPS THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ALSO HINTS OF A
BROAD 500 MB CLOSED LOW FORMING UP OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WED
THROUGH FRI WITH THE MODEL TAKING THIS FEATURE SLOWLY WEST. THE
GFS ALSO REFLECTS A BROAD 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT IS PRETTY GOOD
AT THIS TIME.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONV POTENTIAL VERSUS
THE GFS DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE GUIDANCE COMES
INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INCREASING THE RAIN CHCS ANY
MORE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
AND POPS ARE GENERALLY PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
RUNS. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST REASONING
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF MEX THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING FAIRLY ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS. BRIEF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.