Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A HOT AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING
30 TO 35 MPH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT AROUND 105 OUT WEST AND 98
TO 100 CLOSER TO THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
HOLD STEADY OVER THE GULF WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST
KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A RESIDUAL BREEZE CONTINUING ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 TO 82 THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW OVER LAND BUT A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE A REASONABLE PROSPECT AND LEFT
THOSE IN THE FORECAST.

MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL PROBABLY BE JUST A BIT WEAKER TOMORROW WITH GULF
RIDGING SLIGHTLY STRONGER...SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH NET CHANGE
IN WIND SPEED FROM SUNDAY WITH GUSTS PUSHING INTO THE 30 TO
OCCASIONALLY 40 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INLAND WILL BE ABOUT 5 MPH LOWER THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH MAX VALUES AROUND
98 TO 100 COASTAL COUNTIES 100 TO 105 INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE CONTINUES IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PRD AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ENTERS
THE PAC NW. PRESSURE G WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SURGE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
ENHANCE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREES WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOR THE
WEEKEND...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS NOT IMPACTING THE CWA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL
HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR
MORE MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH BRIEF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NW.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL
REMAIN STRONG WITH SE WINDS PREVAILING. EXPECT BREEZE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER WEDNESDAY AS THE
PG RELAXES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY
SATURDAY RETURNING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DESPITE GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  96  82  96 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  97  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81 100  79  99 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              81 102  80 102 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 102  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  90  82  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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