Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 270922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM OF CONSIDERATION
FOR THIS MORNING CONCERNS THE CONV LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SE
ACROSS CENTRAL TX HEADING TO THE TX COASTLINE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS SOME GOOD
CAPE VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE RGV BUT WITH A FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED
SOUNDING EVIDENT. LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2100 -
2500 J/KG ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS GENERALLY WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VALUES LOCATED OVER THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS. LAPS DATA ALSO SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CIN VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER
VALUES LOCATED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. SO EXPECT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE CONV LINE APPROACHING THE TX COASTLINE TO WEAKENAS IT APPROACHES
THE RGV WITH SOME OF THE CONV PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER TX
MARINE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO DEEP SOUTH TX POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
BRIEF SHIFT IN THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH. FURTHER NORTH...THE
500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
LATER TODAY. ANOTHER 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DIG SE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. PUSHING INTO DESERT SW ON THURS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A 500 MB RIDGE STEADILY BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEX.
MEAN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE
GULF. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH WED AND
THURS WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP NICELY. BOTH THE MAV AND ECMWF TEMP
GUIDANCE ARE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE SHORT TERM MODEL SETS WITH THE
MET SHOWING UP AS THE COOLEST. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER MODEL
SETS SINCE THE NAM GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER.

THE LATEST AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT HAZE AND
SMOKE FROM AG BURNING ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE VSBYS AND OVERALL
AIR QUALITY. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE HAZE/FOG THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND THURS WITH TCEQ GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING THE WORST AIR
QUALITY FOR THE RGV ON THURS. TCEQ ANTICIPATES THURSDAY AIR QUALTIY
TO FALL INTO THE "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF 500MB LOWS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. VERY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE SURGES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING NEAR
THE RGV LATER TODAY THE PGF OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY CALM
WINDS AND SEAS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM/W TX
WHICH WILL START STRENGTHENING THE PGF ON THURS POSSIBLY REACHING
SCEC CRITERIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  75  89  78 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          94  74  92  77 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            96  74  94  78 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              98  74  97  77 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  72 101  77 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  75  83  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58


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