000
FXUS64 KBRO 210001 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
701 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP BELOW THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 154 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE MOST PART
HOT...HUMID...BREEZY WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. WEST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW
COULD ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ARE THE POPS. AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY ANOTHER CLUSTER
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW MORE REACHING
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES.
NOT ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE MID OR
LOWER VALLEY WITH A STRONGER CAP IN PLACE. THE MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT HOSTEL FOR ANY STORM TO SURVIVE.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER.
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FORECAST HERE. WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY
ON TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH
TEXAS TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLOW OF THE
TROUGH WILL PUSH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PROVIDED FROM THE
GULF WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT IT MAY DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE CWA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE OF RECEIVING ANY RAINFALL WITH A 20 PERCENT BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST OR
THE UPPER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY LOWERING
TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHEAST GULF MOISTURE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW
REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A DISTINCT
DRY LINE ENHANCING SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE. EXPECT
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND INCREMENT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LOWER SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. WITH NO CHANGES IN THIS SE PATTERN THE LOW TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG IMPULSE TO ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL DEEPEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ATTACHED TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GRADIENT TO RELAX A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS THE IMPULSE
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL TUESDAY
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ACTUAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT SURFACE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
WEEK WITH WINDS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SST WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE BREEZE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME NO SCA OR SCEC WILL
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
DOMINATE AND KEEP LOW SEAS IN THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

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