000
FXUS64 KBRO 151050 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS AT 1500 FEET HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS MOVING
OVERHEAD...THEREFORE THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. VFR IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
COURTESY OF BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP AND
DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
..CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
IS REPLACED BY 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO NORTH MEXICO
..DRY WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN INLAND AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT
OVER THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FLAT 500 MB
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...OVERHEAD AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERACTS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS EXTENDING
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE 500 MB RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MID WEEK AND BUILDS INTO TEXAS BY LATE
WEEK.

THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE A TROPICAL WAVE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE WEEK BUT DIFFER ON THE MOSITURE
IMPACTS FOR THE AREA. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH
PWATS OF 1.8 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS/ECMWF MOS
POP VALUES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER.
WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS FOR LATE WEEK DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND WILL MAINTAIN 10 PERCENT...SILENT POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE GFS MOS VALUES/CLOSE TO ECMWF MOS VALUES DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RIDGING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND WETTER. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 105 TO 110 ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
MARINE WATERS. SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MAY BUILD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY DUE TO SWELLS FROM A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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