Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231123 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
623 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The main concern during this portion of the total forecast will
be wind. An intensifying surface pressure gradient will occur on
Sunday along the Lower Texas Coast and the western Gulf of Mexico.
Model guidance strongly suggests that a Wind Advisory will likely
be needed for a few hours Sunday afternoon for the three
immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy) of the BRO
CWFA.

Otherwise, a nearly zonal mid-level flow overhead will produce dry
weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the
entire forecast period. Temperature-wise, warming daytime highs and
overnight lows will occur as an onshore flow gradually redevelops
and intensifies.

Finally, a High Risk of rip currents is expected at the local
beaches on Sunday due to the anticipated stronger winds and building
seas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The ongoing windy to breezy southerly winds will continue Sunday
evening before decreasing somewhat overnight. However, breezy
conditions will likely continue through the overnight hours along
the coast. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 60s across the
Rio Grande Plains to the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across the
the Valley.

A dry cold front will move into Deep South Texas on Monday, but
ahead of the frontal boundary, temperatures will be very warm. A
heat spike will be possible as 925 mb winds turn to the west or
southwest. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Winds will shift to the north Monday night with the
passage of the cold front. Lows Monday night will range from the
mid 50s across the northern ranchlands, upper 50s to the lower 60s
across the Rio Grande Valley and the mid 60s at the beaches.
Surface high pressure builds into the region Monday night into
Tuesday. Near normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday with
highs in the generally in the lower 80s, except for the 70s along
the coast.

Another mid-level trough swings over the area by midweek and brings
a brief re-enforcing surge of high pressure into the region.
Southeast flow returns on Thursday with breezy conditions possible
Friday as the pressure gradient strengthens. Otherwise, dry and
quiet weather is expected to prevail through period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR will continue at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours with
clear skies and veering winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Today through Sunday: The main concern during this portion of the
marine forecast will be wind. The surface pressure gradient is
expected to intensify along the Lower Texas Coast on Sunday.
Strong winds and rough seas will result at that time, and Small
Craft Advisory is likely to be needed for the Laguna Madre and
Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore. Until
that time, generally moderate winds and seas are expected with
surface high pressure in control.

Sunday night through Friday...Adverse marine conditions with ongoing
Small Craft Advisories will likely prevail along the Lower Texas
Coast Sunday night into Monday. Conditions slightly improve Monday
night and Tuesday with moderate winds and elevated seas. However,
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will likely be needed for
the Gulf Waters. More favorable conditions return Wednesday into
Friday as high pressure builds across the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  64  80  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               79  60  83  67 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 82  63  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         82  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      71  66  74  69 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  63  79  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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