077
FXUS64 KBRO 041139 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
639 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The main event in the short term continues to be the above normal
temperatures. Highs today and Sunday will generally range from the
low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. Low temperatures
tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 70s. Additionally, deep
low level moisture and light winds may support patchy light fog,
mainly across the Northern Ranchlands and near/over marine areas
around daybreak. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies this morning may
become partly sunny during the afternoon before clouds return again
this evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms could potentially drift southward
into Northern Ranchlands on Sunday and SPC has the aforementioned
areas in a general thunderstorm outlook.

Moderate seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the
local beaches today through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Building and sustained intense heat continues to be the main
concern during this portion of the total forecast. Steadily rising
daytime highs will occur throughout the period, with well above
normal values likely in the Tuesday through Friday time frame.
Temperatures will near, and possibly even meet, established HEAT
ADVISORY criteria on Tuesday, and may well surpass the threshold
on Wednesday and Thursday as a dryline nudges into the BRO CWFA
from the west.

Additionally, an enhanced pressure gradient will produce a breezy
to windy onshore flow, providing some measure of relief from the
heat, especially in shaded areas. However, the strength of the
wind will not near or exceed established WIND ADVISORY criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that
low MVFR cloud decks have pushed farther westward. Short term
model guidance suggests that VFR ceilings should continue through
the morning. Therefore, generally VFR conditions are expected
this morning into the afternoon with moderate to gusty southeast
winds. MVFR ceilings return this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Moderate southeast winds and moderate to sometimes higher seas
will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should
exercise caution conditions may occur at times.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
An enhanced pressure gradient continues to be anticipated over
the western Gulf of Mexico throughout the period. Breezy to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail along the Lower
Texas Coast, with both Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small
Craft Advisory likely to be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  77  89  77 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               91  75  92  74 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 93  77  94  77 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  75  94  76 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  77  82  77 /   0  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     86  75  87  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC