National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions: 1 2

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AXUS74 KBRO 011938
DGTBRO
TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-012300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
140 PM CDT FRI JAN 01 2010

...CLASSIC EL NINO CONDITIONS PROVIDE RECORD BREAKING RAINFALL
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS TAKEN DOWN
ANOTHER NOTCH...

SYNOPSIS...

AS NOVEMBER TURNED TO DECEMBER, THE FORCE OF A LATE AUTUMN AND EARLY
WINTER EL NINO BEGAN IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN OF EL NINO FEATURES A PRONOUNCED LOW
LATITUDE OR SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WELL ABOVE THE EARTH SURFACE,
LEADING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WHICH
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL AND MORE FREQUENT COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH INCLUDING THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WAS MUCH THE CASE
DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER AS COOL (BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES) AND
DAMP (ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL) PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
TOTALS DURING THE MONTH INDICATED WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6 INCH TOTALS,
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES
DROUGHT MONITOR, "BENEFICIAL RAINS HAVE GIVEN THE AREA A
PRECIPITATION SURPLUS FOR RECENT MONTHS AND SOIL MOISTURE HAS
RECOVERED. THIS SUPPORTS THE REMOVAL OF SEVERE (D2) OVER PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) INDICATED
ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG AND NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTY." DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING
PASTURES AND RANGELAND.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

WILDFIRE DANGER IS CONSIDER LOW ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDICES ARE 200 (KBDI) OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH
300 TO 400 (KBDI) OVER JIM HOGG COUNTY, AND 500 TO 600 (KBDI) OVER
ZAPATA COUNTY. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, COUNTY BURN
BANS ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING OUTSIDE BURNING
ACTIVITIES AND CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY OFFICIALS FOR LATEST
INFORMATION CONCERNING BURN BANS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS FAVORABLY TO ABNORMALLY
MOIST. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS...RANGELAND AND PASTURE
CONDITIONS WERE POOR DUE TO AN EARLIER FREEZE. COLD TEMPERATURES
HAVE KEPT PERENNIAL GRASSES DORMANT. SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE GOOD
TO ABOVE NORMAL. FIELD ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT A STANDSTILL IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO CONTINUED RAINS AND WET FIELDS. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS
HAVE INCREASE SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING. GROWERS CONTINUED HARVESTING
CABBAGE, SPINACH, CITRUS AND TOMATOES.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
(TCEQ)...THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO
COUNTY, 2 IN STARR COUNTY AND ONE IN ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A "WATER
SHORTAGE WATCH".

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

DECEMBER 2009 RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GO INTO THE RECORD BOOKS FOR SOME
SITES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MCALLEN RECORDED 5.01 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FOR THE MONTH, THIS IS THE WETTEST DECEMBER EVER FOR MCALLEN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1941. THE PREVIOUS WETTEST DECEMBER WAS 3.70
INCHES SET BACK IN 1986. AT BROWNSVILLE 5.64 INCHES WAS RECORDED
DURING THE MONTH. THIS WAS THE 4TH WETTEST DECEMBER EVER AT
BROWNSVILLE SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1878. THIS WAS ALSO THE WETTEST
DECEMBER SINCE 1940. HARLINGEN RECORDED 4.01 INCHES, OR 2.64 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL. MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE MAJOR
AIRPORTS WERE BROWNSVILLE 57.6 DEGREES OR 3.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
HARLINGEN 56.2 DEGREES OR 4.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MCALLEN 58.6
DEGREES OR 3.0 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 15TH...

A STEADY SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS
WILL AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JANUARY 15TH MAINTAINING A COOL
AND WET PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
CAN BE EXPECTED ON JANUARY 3RD AND 4TH THEN AGAIN FROM JANUARY 6TH
THROUGH JANUARY 9TH. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED FROM JANUARY 12TH THROUGH
JANUARY 15TH.  THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS DURING THIS UPCOMING TWO
WEEK PERIOD WILL PROVIDE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM
RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FROM JANUARY 2ND THROUGH JANUARY 6TH. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM JANUARY 7TH THROUGH JANUARY 9TH. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FROM JANUARY 10TH
THROUGH JANUARY 13TH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
JANUARY 14TH AND 15TH. AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
UPCOMING PERIOD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. AVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR THIS SAME PERIOD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF
JANUARY THROUGH MARCH OF 2010...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
INDICATES THAT THE PACIFIC EL NINO EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE WINTER OF 2009/2010 INTO THE SPRING OF 2010. THE PRESENCE OF THE
PACIFIC EL NINO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WINTER MONTHS OF 2009/2010 AS WELL AS THE EARLY SPRING FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGH MARCH 2010
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED STEADY IMPROVEMENT FROM THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MARCH OF 2010.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORAGE AT FALCON RESERVOIR REMAINS STEADY
AND IS CURRENTLY AT 64 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT
AMISTAD RESERVOIR IS ALSO HOLDING STEADY AT 96 PERCENT OF NORMAL
CONSERVATION LEVEL.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT UNTIL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OF D2 (SEVERE) OR HIGHER IS INITIATED OVER PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU
MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER
COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE
AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE,
STATE AND FEDERAL WILDLIFE DEPARTMENTS, TEXAS COMMISSION ON
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ) AND IBWC.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521
PHONE: 956-504-1432
EMAIL: SR-BRO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

VEGA/SPEECE/GOLDSMITH/CASTILLO
National Weather Service National Headquarters
