Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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AXUS74 KBRO 202122
DGTBRO

TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-222130
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
430 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Drought conditions have ended across Hidalgo and Zapata
Counties...
...Moderate drought conditions linger across portions of Jim Hogg
County...

.SYNOPSIS...

Rainfall was below normal across most of deep South Texas during the
month of September. Rainfall was above normal across northern
portions of Zapata county...as well as across portions of Brooks and
Hidalgo counties and extreme southwest portions of Kenedy county.
During the last 90 days...deep South Texas has received anywhere
from 50 to 100 percent of their normal rainfall except across
northern portions of Zapata county...southeast portions of Hidalgo
county and southwest portions of Kenedy county...where 100 to 150
percent of normal rainfall fell.

According to the latest United States Drought Monitor...moderate
(D1) drought conditions were across most of Jim Hogg county.
Abnormally dry conditions (D0) were across most of Starr county as
well as across the coastal sections of Cameron...Willacy and Kenedy
counties and the remainder of Jim Hogg county. Drought conditions
across deep South Texas are affecting mainly agricultural interests
and grasslands.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the potential for
significant wildland fires is normal.  The latest Fire Danger Map
from the Texas Inter-Agency Coordination Center (TICC) on October
19th indicates a moderate fire danger over most of the area except
for low across most of Hidalgo county...extreme western portions of
Willacy county...extreme southwest portions of Kenedy county and
extreme southeast portions of Brooks county. The latest Keetch-Byram
Drought Indices (KBDI) were 300 to 400 over over most of deep South
Texas except across Starr and Jim Hogg counties where indices were
500 to 600. County burn bans are currently in effect for Zapata, Jim
Hogg, Brooks, Starr and Willacy counties. Residents are urged to
take extra precautions when conducting any outside burning, and
should contact county officials for any scheduled burning. Residents
are also reminded that fire danger can change quickly from one day
to another as winds and relative humidity values vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture and Texas
Agrilife Extension Service Agents...areas that have not received
recent rainfall maintained good soil moisture from past rainfall.
Cotton harvest has wrapped up in some areas. Pasture and rangeland
conditions continue to improve due to recent rainfall and adequate
soil moisture. Body condition scores on cattle continue to improve.
Watermelons, cantaloupes and other vegetables are almost finished.
Livestock is doing well and the live cattle market is more aggressive
with buyers paying above-average prices.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

According to the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality
(TCEQ)...there are currently 32 cities or water supply entities that
are under voluntary or mandatory water restrictions. There are 7
Public Water Supply entities in Cameron county, 13 in Hidalgo
county, 6 in Starr county, 4 in Zapata county and 2 in Willacy
county. All water users are urged to conserve water.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Overall, September 2017 brought near normal to above normal
temperatures and below normal rainfall across most of deep South
Texas except across northern portions of Zapata county...as well as
across portions of Brooks and Hidalgo counties and extreme southwest
portions of Kenedy county where above normal rainfall fell.

Current rainfall to date for the month of October at Brownsville is
3.00 inches or 0.44 inches above normal. Year to date rainfall is
20.68 inches or 2.61 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of October at Harlingen is
3.50 inches or 1.72 inches above normal. Year to date rainfall is
17.61 inches or 3.60 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of October at McAllen is 6.00
inches or 4.62 inches above normal. Year to date rainfall is 15.23
inches or 4.19 inches below normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

Meteorological outlook...October 21st through October 27th...An
upper level trough of low pressure across the western and central
United States will continue to bring moisture across portions of
South Texas the 21st before a cold front moves through on the
22nd. This will provide showers and thunderstorms mainly across the
coastal sections of deep South Texas on the 22nd. Surface high
pressure will build into South Texas the 23rd and not much in the
way of rain chances are expected through the 26th before another
cold front approaches South Texas on the 27th. Temperatures will be
above normal the 21st and 22nd becoming near normal the 23rd and
24th. Temperatures will then be below normal the 25th before
returning to near normal on the 26th and 27th. Overall average
temperatures will be below normal from October 26th through October
30th for late October.

Rainfall totals will generally be less than a tenth of an inch to a
tenth of an inch across portions of deep South Texas through October
27th. Overall average rainfall will be below normal from October
26th through October 30th. Any rainfall that occurs in Jim Hogg
county through the rest of October will provide some drought relief
for the area.

The long range climate outlook for deep South Texas through January
2018...derived from guidance from the National Weather Service and
the Climate Prediction Center...indicates that generally above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will be expected for
deep South Texas through the rest of the Fall of 2017 into the
Winter of 2018. At this time...the potential for drought conditions
ending through January 2018 is low.

Any rainfall that affects deep south Texas through January 2018 will
provide some drought relief from the current drought conditions.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

According to the Texas Water Development Board (TDWB)...the current
Texas water share at Falcon Reservoir has increased during the past
four weeks to 52.0 percent. This is an increase from a previous
level of 25.4 percent three months ago. The Texas water share at
Falcon at this time last year was at 35.2 percent. The current Texas
water share at Amistad Reservoir has decreased during the past four
weeks to 75.2 percent. This is a lowering from a previous level of
76.8 percent three months ago. The Texas water share at Amistad at
this time last year was at 83.2 percent. The reservoirs at Falcon
and Amistad provide much of the water for the Rio Grande valley.
Residents, including growers and ranchers of the lower Rio Grande
valley are urged to take all necessary steps to conserve water.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued around
Friday, November 17th, 2017.

RELATED WEB SITES...

For additional information...and the latest weather forecast for
deep South Texas...visit our website at www.weather.gov/rgv. You may
also visit the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
website at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and get the latest information on
reservoir levels from the International Boundary and Water
Commission (IBWC) at www.ibwc.gov.

Additional web sites:

NWS BROWNSVILLE DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.weather.gov/bro/drought

NWS BROWNSVILLE Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS):
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bro

U.S. Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center:
http://drought.unl.edu

Texas Water Development Board Reservoir Website:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TICC):
http://ticc.tamu.edu

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (water restrictions):
www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/location.html

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information...the USDA...state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites...the
USDA...state Agrilife Extension Service District agents, Texas Inter-
agency Coordination Center, Texas Forest Service, state and federal
wildlife departments Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
(TCEQ), Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the International
Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information
statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
20 South Vermillion Road
Brownsville, TX
Phone: 956-504-1432
Email: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Castillo



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