Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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AXUS74 KBRO 221420 AAA
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TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-311500-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 AM SAT FEB 22 2014

...FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...

...LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

SYNOPSIS...

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF JANUARY
INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEMS KEPT
RAINFALL VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY LOW. FORTUNATELY...NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR JANUARY AND FEBRUARY SO
DEPARTURES FOR THE END OF JANUARY ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE END OF JANUARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS CLOSE
TO 4 INCHES. MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MUCH LESS OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN RANCH LANDS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...RECENT BENEFICIAL RAINS
EASED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS (D0) EXISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF CAMERON, MOST OF
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY (D1) TO MODERATE DROUGHT
EXTENDING TOWARDS NORTHERN COAST OF WILLACY TO KENEDY COUNTY AND
WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTY. IN ADDITION... MODERATE (D1)
DROUGHT EXTENDS ACROSS JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS...PUBLIC AND PRIVATE ENTITIES...ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND TEXAS
AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS...SOIL MOISTURE RANGED FROM 85
PERCENT ADEQUATE IN WILLACY COUNTY TO 80 PERCENT SHORT IN STARR
COUNTY. IN KENEDY COUNTY WINDY CONDITIONS DROPPED SOIL MOISTURE TO
VERY SHORT LEVELS. COLD WEATHER BROUGHT PLANTING TO A HALT IN
CAMERON...HIDALGO AND WILLACY COUNTIES. SPRING PLANTING PREPARATIONS
CONTINUED IN STARR COUNTY. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER...THE RISK
OF FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD IS LOW OVER CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES
AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. THE EXPECTED
DRYNESS OF VEGETATION OVER THE REST OF WINTER AND EARLY SPRING COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST KEETCH
BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KDBI) WERE 0 TO 200 IN HIDALGO...WILLACY AND
CAMERON...200 TO 300 WERE INDICATED IN STARR AND ZAPATA COUNTIES.
KBDI OF 300 TO 400 AND EVEN TO 500 WERE NOTED OVER JIM HOGG AND
BROOKS WITH BURN BANS CONTINUING TO BE IN EFFECT FOR STARR...JIM
HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS WHEN CONDUCTING ANY OUTSIDE BURNING...AND SHOULD CONTACT
COUNTY OFFICIALS FOR ANY SCHEDULED BURNING. RESIDENTS ARE ALSO
REMINDED THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER
AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES VARY.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

NO CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS REGARDING THE STATUS
OR NUMBER OF CITIES OR ENTITIES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY 32 CITIES OR WATER SUPPLY ENTITIES THAT CONTINUE VOLUNTARY
OR MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS COMMISSION
OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ)...THERE ARE CURRENTLY 7 PUBLIC WATER
SUPPLY ENTITIES IN CAMERON COUNTY...12 IN HIDALGO COUNTY...6 IN
STARR COUNTY...4 IN ZAPATA COUNTY AND 1 IN WILLACY COUNTY WITH WATER
RESTRICTIONS. CURRENTLY...SEVERE RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR EL
SAUZ DISTRICT IN STARR COUNTY AND CITY OF RAYMONDVILLE IS STILL
UNDER PRIORITY RESTRICTIONS. THESE TWO ENTITIES COULD BE OUT OF
WATER IN 90 TO 180 DAYS.

CLIMATE...

RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT BROWNSVILLE WAS 0.68 INCHES OR
0.59 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
HARLINGEN WAS 0.84 INCHES OR 0.22 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT MCALLEN MILLER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 0.66 INCHES OR 0.39 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT THE CAMERON COUNTY
AIRPORT/BAYVIEW WAS 1.22 INCHES OR 0.66 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...FEBRUARY 22ND THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH...A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL KEEP DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREMENT THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AREA
ALLOWING FOR NIGHTS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THIS MOISTURE INCREASES ENHANCING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. BY FEBRUARY 27TH TO
29TH...RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST LOWERING THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE END OF FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL THAT
OCCURS THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SHORT TERM DROUGHT RELIEF FOR THE AREA.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CAN EXPECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH.

THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH APRIL
2014...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
SPRING 2014 AND THAT THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL...NEAR
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL WIDESPREAD DROUGHT ENDING AND RESERVOIR
FILLING RAINFALL THROUGHOUT APRIL 2014 REMAINS LOW.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB) CURRENT TEXAS
WATER SHARE AT FALCON IMPROVE FROM JANUARY 29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY
15TH AT 38.4 PERCENT. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM PREVIOUS LEVEL OF
33.4 IN LATE NOVEMBER. TEXAS WATER SHARE AT FALCON LATE FEBRUARY
2013 WAS 33.0 PERCENT. TEXAS WATER SHARE AT AMISTAD ALSO REMAINED
NEAR STEADY AT 49.2 PERCENT. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM A PREVIOUS
LEVEL OF 48.3 PERCENT IN NOVEMBER. TEXAS WATER SHARE AT AMISTAD LATE
FEBRUARY 2013 WAS 43.9 PERCENT. FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIR PROVIDE
MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RESIDENTS...INCLUDING
GROWERS AND RANCHERS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE URGED TO
CONTINUE TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY STEPS TO CONSERVE WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT COMPLETE UPDATE FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL ISSUED AROUND FRIDAY,
FEBRUARY 28TH, 2014.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV. YOU
MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER
COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.GOV.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE
AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS INTER-AGENCY
COORDINATION CENTER, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, STATE AND FEDERAL
WILDLIFE DEPARTMENTS, TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
(TCEQ), TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB) AND IBWC.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD
BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521
PHONE: 956-504-1432
EMAIL: SR-BRO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

TORRES





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