Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190755 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO MIN TEMPS. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS WITH THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 354 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. PARENT UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THOUGH...DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST ENERGY/DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND LOW/MID LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MEAN 500-1000MB THICKNESS NOW PROGGED ABOVE 540DM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C SO STILL THINK THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY AT THE SUMMIT PEAKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A NICE STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE PRETTY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 50S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...60S THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...STILL SOME LINGERING FEW-SCT VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT EXPECT SKIES TO CONTINUE TO TREND TO SKC BY 09Z AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM KMPV OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TURN 5-10KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS MONDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TRENDING TO VFR TUESDAY WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F 1979 RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F 1990 MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F 1959 ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F 1943 MASSENA (MSS)..........30F 2008 BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F 1959 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-016>018. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ002-005-009- 011-012-019. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-027- 029>031-034-087. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF CLIMATE...NASH

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