Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221745 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to move east as an upper trough brings a slight chance of rain showers to the North Country today. A ridge of high pressure will build east from the Great Lakes on Sunday and will remain over the region through early Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 1044 AM EDT Saturday...Isolated to scattered showers remain over the North Country with persistent cloudy skies as mid-upper level trough pushes across the region today. A ridge of surface high pressure will build into our region overnight. Maximum temperatures today will be cool, upper 40s to lower 50s. Minimum temperatures overnight will be in the 30s across the area, pretty close to seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather during the short term period. East-west oriented surface ridge of high pressure for Sunday with zonal west to east flow at 500 mb and northern stream trough passing across northern Quebec. Plenty of sunshine Sunday with seasonable temperatures, highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s. Late Sunday into Monday a surface front sags south with wind shift out of the north. Cooler temperatures Monday mainly in the north, primarily due to cloud cover associated with the front rather than cold air advection. No precip forecast with it as moisture is limited to the lower levels and no synoptic forcing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 426 AM EDT Saturday...Weather becomes more active from mid-week onward with periodic chances for showers. The northern stream low moves east into the Canadian maritimes through Tuesday to no effect on our forecast, and meanwhile a southern stream weather becomes more active from mid-week onward with periodic chances for showers. The northern stream low moves east into the Canadian maritimes through Tuesday to no effect on our forecast, and meanwhile a southern stream trough moving across the southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday night and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement with surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast over the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves up the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic, with more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont, especially east and south, warming to the west into the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low brushes the area, with better chances in southeast portion of the forecast area tapering off to northwest. Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near 70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and temperatures back to near normal.rough moving across the southern tier states makes a left turn at the coast Monday night and moves north. GFS and ECMWF in good enough agreement with surface low moving up the Atlantic coast and then northeast over the benchmark 40N/70W mid day Wednesday. As the low moves up the coast low level flow turns easterly off the Atlantic, with more moisture and cooler temperatures in Vermont, especially east and south, warming to the west into the St Lawrence Valley. Chances for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low brushes the area, with better chances in southeast portion of the forecast area tapering off to northwest. Brief ridge of high pressure late Wednesday, then a cold front renews precip chances mainly Thursday. Warm southerly flow ahead of this front with forecast highs Thursday in the 60s to near 70 in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. Added slgt chance of thunder thinking better instability and shear with warm surface temperatures and approaching trough aloft. Friday ends up with west to northwest post frontal winds and temperatures back to near normal. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...Champlain valley seeing VFR conditions with MVFR at KMSS/KSLK and IFR at KMPV. Expect VFR to persist in the Champlain Valley through Sunday evening. Back edge of MVFR cigs is gradually shifting eastward and expect KMSS to see breaks in overcast late this afternoon. However, VFR not expected til after 00Z at KMSS. MVFR cigs expected to persist at KSLK longer in generally upslope flow. Brief break in MVFR cigs after 02Z will result in potential for MVFR BR/FG development and MVFR cigs. Expect conditions to improve to VFR after sunrise Sunday. IFR at KMPV will improve to MVFR this afternoon and eventually become VFR early Sunday morning. Scattered rain showers this afternoon will diminish this evening. Winds generally out of the W to NW at 5-10kts this afternoon and evening. With high pressure building overnight, lgt and vrb winds expected through late morning Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 426 AM EDT Friday...Lake Champlain has settled down with loss of strong winds, and gages around the lake showing around 99.7 feet, still just 3 tenths below flood stage. Dry weather through Monday and little wind to cause surge and wave action will allow the lake to remain quiet, with a very slow drop in lake level through the start of next week. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/Neiles NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Hanson LONG TERM...Hanson AVIATION...KGM HYDROLOGY...Hanson

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