Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 230502 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1202 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Expect above normal temperatures...on the order of 15 to 25 degrees warmer...to continue right through Saturday. Saturday will be the warmest day with highs in the 50s to around 60 and these temperatures could set new record highs. The above normal temperatures will lead to increased snowmelt and runoff and increase the potential for ice jams and river flooding. Widespread rain later Saturday into Saturday night could further enhance the potential for flooding across parts of the North Country. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1128 PM EST Wednesday... Temps will be the forecast challenge through the evening hours as the cloud cover is playing a large role in the amount of cooling. We started clear just after sunset in many locations and cooled radiatively rapidly into the mid 30s however as the mid level cloud ceiling rolls in many locations have stayed the same or increased by a degree or so. The issue is that if the temps stay warmer then the dewpoint depressions will be around 3-4 instead of the originally thought 1-2 overnight. So even with calm winds we may not saturate enough to see widespread patchy fog. Based on the latest hires guidance, I still think we will see some fog across the North Country but I`m not confident on how long it will persist or the areal coverage. Enjoy your evening. Previous discussion...The diurnal cumulus clouds have started to dissipate based on latest obs and satellite imagery so I lowered our sky cover forecast for the next couple of hours but there upstream obs do show that some low and mid level clouds will build back into the region overnight so the updates were largely cosmetic. Upstream locations are also seeing some fog and low stratus resulting from the warm air over a moist snow pack. With the melting that occurred already and temps not likely to drop below freezing the idea of patchy fog looks like it should play out well. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Any precipitation overnight will be rather spotty and generally confined to parts of northern New York. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Forecast remains on track for above normal temperatures...both daytime and nighttime temperatures. This will lead to ice breakup in the rivers...especially northeast New York and areas along and north of Route 2 in Vermont where river ice still prevails. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s...but mid 40s to lower 50s on Friday. Either way both days are still above normal. Upper trough passing north of the area will keep main forcing north of the border...but we could still see some light rain showers. Looking at rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch on Thursday. Warm front will be to our southwest on Friday and will eventually push up into the region late Friday into Friday and lift north of the border by early Saturday. Could be some showers with this front...but again not a lot of precipitation...generally less than two tenths of an inch. These temperatures should still promote snowmelt/runoff and we should begin to see 1 to 3 foot rises on rivers late Thursday into Thursday night...but most of the mainstem rivers are starting off low and should be able to handle the increase. Further rises are expected on Friday...but the greatest concern will come on Saturday when even warmer temperatures and widespread rain eventually moves in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...On Saturday we will be in the warm sector ahead of approaching cold front. Strong southwesterly return flow will be in place as low pressure system moves from the Great Lakes region north of our CWA later Saturday and Saturday night. 850 temps will reach about 10 C on Saturday, max temps will be in the mid 50s to around 60. Strong cold front pushes west to east across our forecast area Saturday night. Have high pops mentioned from 18z Saturday through 06z Sunday. Moderate rain is expected area wide. Storm total QPF will range from about half an inch to around an inch. See hydrology section for ice jam concerns. Strong cold air advection behind cold front will keep temperatures on Sunday closer to seasonal normals, mainly 30s across the area. Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon will feature quieter and more seasonable weather with a ridge of surface high pressure briefly over the area. By Monday evening a weaker low pressure system will pass to our south and bring just a chance for some rain and snow showers. Towards the middle of the week temperatures will warm back above seasonal normals and a quieter weather pattern develops. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate a large scale system for the second half of the work week to impact the north country, looks very similar to Saturday`s system with rain and then snow. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Satellite loop showing some low clouds across the region at this time. expecting ceilings to lower overnight, as suggested by forecast Bufkit soundings. RAP model sugeesting mainly low clouds over the region overnight and not much in the way of fog. Thus, have opted to go more with a lower cloud deck than fog overnight at the TAF sites. Guidance hinting at some southerly surface wind gusts at or above 20 knots during the day on Thursday, so have some developing between 13Z to 15Z on Thursday and continuing to around 22Z on Thursday. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday... og/BR possible Thursday Night into Friday...as weak backdoor front results in a wind shift to the north. Very gusty southerly winds develop...along with a line of showers with embedded heavier rainfall for Sat. Localized areas of turbulence and shear likely...along with MVFR conditions in the heavier showers. Rain transitions to mountain snow showers with lingering IFR vis possible at SLK/MPV Sat night into Sunday. MVFR possible again on Monday with more showers in the area.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 326 PM EST Wednesday...Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal...both during the day and into the night. This will continue to support the breakup of river ice and increase the potential for ice jams. Rivers with ice still in them are mainly over northeast New York and the northern third of Vermont...generally north of Route 2. We will see some light showers Thursday and Friday...but amounts should not have much of an impact. The above normal temperatures will contribute to snowmelt/runoff and we should see noticeable rises Thursday and Friday...1 to 3 foot rises on Thursday...but rivers are starting off low and should be able to handle these initial rises. Main concern will likely be on Saturday and into Saturday night when record/near record high temperatures further increase snowmelt/runoff and widespread rain moves in with at least a half to one inch of rain expected. Sharp rises will likely occur during this period and greatest ice jam/river flooding potential should be during this time period. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...WGH/Neiles HYDROLOGY...Evenson

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