Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 311925 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE JUST SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. SATELLITE AND LATEST NAM/RAP MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION/RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED NEAR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO/SERN ONTARIO TO JUST NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE CARRIED 20-30 POPS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. NELY WINDS FROM NEAR MONTREAL DOWN THE VALLEY RESULTING IN SOME DRY ADVECTION AT LOW- LEVELS IN THIS AREA...SO ANY QPF POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT (JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS). ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT N-NE. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 40S...WITH EARLY AM LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT OTHERWISE WE/LL ONLY EXPERIENCE FRINGE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT...AND MOSTLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT AND ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL (OR A DUSTING OF SNOW AT THE SUMMITS) THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND 32-34F AT THE SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED NORTH WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH THRU THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION MOST OVER LOCATIONS. IF LOW TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER WEST (SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS)...A DUSTING TO 1" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VT VALLEYS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM GIVEN CLOUDY/WINDY ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NERN VT AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH 00Z RUNS AND AMONG THE GFS/EURO MEMBERS -- AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. DEVIATIONS GET LARGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FORECAST HASN`T CHANGED MUCH. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET MONDAY & TUESDAY AND THEN GETTING UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW... MONDAY: THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE FAR TO THE EAST, WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWLY RELAXING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR A SEMI-BREEZY DAY -- PERHAPS SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20MPH. GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR, SO A BLEND LOOKS THE BEST WAY TO GO. SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF ANY THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW (SO 0% POP IS GOOD). 925MB TEMPERATURES START OFF CHILLY (-5C OR SO) BUT SLOWLY WARM TOWARD -1C BY THE AFTERNOON. WHAT THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE ARE TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS). MONDAY NIGHT: FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AND EAST OF HERE. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TRICKY PART. THINK COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH LOW/MID 20S EXPECTED WITH MORE TIME WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IF THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CLOUDS IS A FEW HOURS DIFFERENT, IT COULD MEAN LOWS COULD BE COLDER OR WARMER. BOTTOM LINE, WENT A BIT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT THINGS ARE UNCERTAIN. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S UNDER PERFECT CONDITIONS, BUT CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. 50S (THOUGH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL) WILL DO IT. DURING THE DAY A FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT ULTIMATELY THE FRONT WILL PULL UP STATIONARY AND START TO DISSIPATE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO LOW CHANCES IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE DAY, BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH SO CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTION WITH POPS AROUND 60% THERE BUT TRENDING DOWN TO <30% IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF VERMONT. GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE MODELS FOR THIS SORT OF ORIENTATION OF RAIN CHANCES THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT JUST NORTH/WEST OF HERE. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOTS OF 40S AND A FEW UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT DREAY COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES IS IN PLACE. WITH THE STALLED FRONT, WE`LL SEE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON`T VARY MUCH. STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND, BUT EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY AND TOO COOL AT NIGHT. BASICALLY LOW 50S IN THE DAY, 40S AT NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: MODELS DIVERGE MORE BY THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SAY WE WILL HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFY SOME AND CAUSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. DIFFERENCES ARE WITH WHERE THIS ALL HAPPENS. GFS IS FARTHER WEST WITH TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS AND SLOWER WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. IT WOULD KEEP US IN A WARMER ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR COMES IN. 12Z ECMWF HAS ALL OF THIS HAPPENING QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT COLDER AIR IS MOVING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A MORE CHANCE OF WHITE STUFF, EVEN AT LOW ELEVATIONS. AS A COMPARISON, GFS HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0C AS OF 12Z FRIDAY -- MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AT THAT SAME TIME. THIS FAR OUT, JUST STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND WHICH RESULTS IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2000FT AND RAIN SHOWERS BELOW THAT AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 40S. I`M SURE THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE SEVERAL MORE TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. THAT`S JUST THE WAY THINGS WORK....
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PRETTY MUCH VFR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING. LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING MORE TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO AND POINTS WEST FROM THERE, AND THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR TO THE EAST THE RAIN WILL GET AND HOW FAST THAT WILL HAPPEN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ANSWERS ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH AND NOT ALL THAT FAST, AS THE ORGANIZING STORM WILL TAKE A PATH KEEPING IT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION. DO THINK SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING (PROBABLY AFTER 03Z). LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AS WELL AT MSS AND SLK. WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW, WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL. HAVE JUST INCLUDED "VCSH" IN MOST TAFS FOR THAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOME ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SAT-00Z MON: VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 25-35KT RANGE ON SUNDAY. 00Z MON-12Z TUE: VFR 12Z TUE ONWARD: MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE KCXX-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN COLCHESTER VERMONT IS OUT OF SERVICE AT THIS TIME. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE CHECKED THE RADAR AND FOUND A PROBLEM WITH HIGH VOLTAGE ARCING. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS ARE AT THE RADAR SITE THIS MORNING ATTEMPTING REPAIRS. OWING TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE PROBLEM...IT APPEARS THE EARLIEST RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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