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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231931
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather will continue this evening before rain moves back into
the region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday, and a brief
period of snow is possible as precipitation tapers off. Only minor
accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal for
the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes place
Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return later Saturday into
early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Dry conditions persist across the region
this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed well into the 60s under
bright sunshine and ample mixing. Mixing has been deeper than
anticipated, which has also allowed dewpoints to lower into the
low/mid 20s to around 30F. The result is relative humidity values in
the 20 to 30% range in many spots. The deep mixing has also made for
gusty south winds, particularly in the Champlain Valley and the
northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley,
where gusts of 30-35 mph have been recorded. These conditions will
continue into the late afternoon/early evening, though moisture will
gradually be increasing ahead of our next system. Winds will abate
as the sunsets, though will still remain gusty to 20-25 mph or so.
See the Fire Weather section below or our Special Weather Statement
issued earlier today for additional details.

After today`s fire weather concerns, the focus turns toward a strong
cold front which will cross the region on Wednesday. Showers
associated with moisture streaming out ahead of this front are
already approaching our region from the west, and will overspread
the region overnight tonight. It will take a little while for lower
levels to saturate, so radar may look a little more threatening than
what is actually occurring early in the evening. However, expect
just about everyone to get in on the rain by daybreak Wednesday,
with the bulk falling from the Champlain Valley westward.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s overnight, with some upper 30s
sneaking into the St Lawrence Valley as the front starts to move
into the region.

The front will push through quickly during the day on Wednesday,
ushering in a cold and dry airmass. Temperatures will likely fall
quite sharply as the front moves through, perhaps as much as 5-10
degrees in just an hour or two. Hence rain will at least mix with
snow as temperatures plummet into the mid/upper 30s, with higher
elevations likely seeing at least a brief period of all snow. Ground
surfaces will be warm, so while snow could come down hard enough to
accumulate briefly, it will likely quickly melt, especially paved
surfaces. Drier air will rapidly follow the frontal passage, which
quickly ending precipitation from west to east as temperatures cool.
So any period of snow should be fairly short-lived as well, as
precipitation should end by sunset or so. So the period of snow or
rain/snow mix will be short, and this with warm surface temperatures
will keep any accumulation that does occur minimal, with most spots
seeing only a half inch or less, if they get any real accumulation
at all. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest behind the
front as well, and could see some gusts of 30+ mph with or just
behind the front.

Skies will clear quickly Wednesday evening as much drier air works
into the region. Dewpoints will drop into the teens and even single
digits overnight, and winds will become light as ridging builds into
the region. So looking at a good radiational cooling night, with
lows anticipated to range from the upper teens in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom to the mid 20s in the Champlain and St
Lawrence Valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Another seasonably cool day can be
expected Thursday, with highs only in the upper 40s to around 50.
Despite the cold temperatures however, we`ll see plenty of sun as
the center of a surface anticyclone shifts nearer. Winds will be
generally 5-10 mph from the northwest, becoming light and variable
overnight once the center of the high crests overhead. Have hedged
towards the lower side of guidance for overnight lows for Thursday
night with light winds and clear skies...ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Lows will be in the 20s for most of the area, which is a
good 10 degrees below normal values for this time of year. Given
that the growing season has not yet begun anywhere in our forecast
area, no frost/freeze headlines needed, but early gardeners
with vulnerable outdoor plants should take precautions to
protect against a potential frost/freeze Thursday night.
Temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 20s for the
northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, and drop to the upper
20s to around 30 in the valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 328 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday will be a beautiful day with
noticeably warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Temperatures will
start off quite chilly in the morning, but will quickly climb into
the 50s/low 60s for afternoon highs. Minimum relative humidities
will drop to around 30 to 40 percent by Friday afternoon, but light
winds will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

The warming trend will continue into the weekend as return southerly
flow develops and increases. At this point, Saturday morning looks
dry with an upper-level ridge cresting overhead. Southerly winds
will begin to increase during the day Saturday along with increasing
cloud cover as the ridge shifts east and shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Expect chances for showers to increase
as we head into the evening as the ridge flattens and upper-
level shortwaves roll overtop the ridge. It`s too early to get
too specific with the timing of the shortwaves and the
associated rainfall going into early next week, but at least
some showers can be expected Sunday through Wednesday. Have
stayed close to NBM for precipitation forecast. Given the
showery conditions early next week, fire weather concerns are
low from Sunday onward. As temperatures climb into the low 70s
early next week, will see the development of some instability
during the afternoons, and can`t rule out some isolated rumbles
of thunder.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions to prevail into this
evening, then conditions deteriorate overnight and Wednesday as
a strong cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast. Skies remain mostly clear this afternoon, with some
SCT-BKN ceilings seen along the international border of northern
NY. Clouds increase, especially after 00z Wednesday, and
precipitation will begin to spread eastward as well. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR at all terminals by 08z-12z, and
reduced visibility 4-6sm in rain expected. Rain will transition
to a quick burst of snow after 12z Wednesday as temperatures
drop behind the front. IFR conditions likely in snow, especially
at KSLK/KEFK/KMSS. Gusty south winds will persist through 02z
Wednesday, abating a bit overnight. Winds then turn sharply to
the northwest behind the front, from 12z onward through the
period.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather will continue through
this afternoon, with relative humidity values improving
gradually toward evening. Abundant sunshine has warmed us well
into 60s with large dewpoint depressions, and relative humidity
values are generally 25 to 30 percent in most areas, with the
exception of the southern St Lawrence Valley where moisture is
increasing ahead of our next system. Winds have been gusty out
of the south, with gusts of 30 to 35 being reported in portions
of the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley. We have hit red flag
conditions in many spots this afternoon based on our local
criteria (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%), and while conditions
will gradually improve this evening, the Special Weather
Statement for heightened fire weather concerns remains valid for
much of the region through 8 pm. Please visit or contact your
local forestry or environmental protection services for
additional information. Remember, the state of New York has a
burn ban in place through May 14th.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Hastings
FIRE WEATHER...Hastings