Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231429 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1029 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1029 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF 1015 AM. DID OPT TO TWEAK WINDS/SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OUT OF THE REGION. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE NRN MTNS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH READINGS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... MEAN 500-300MB TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 09Z RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING UPSTREAM 80-90KT JET ACROSS SERN ONTARIO WITH LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS FAR NRN NY AND VT. THE UPSTREAM JET IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT AND AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS ONTARIO AND OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM KCXX AND CANADIAN RADARS INDICATES A REGION OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AT 1030Z...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION THRU 15Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FROM PREVAILING STRATUS DECK. ELSEWHERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. DESPITE LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVERED MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SPRINGFIELD VERMONT WITH MORE INSOLATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGHS NEAR 67F. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SW-W AT 5-10 MPH THRU THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 326 AM EDT TUESDAY...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...BUT WILL SEE NOCTURNAL FOG EACH NIGHT IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CUT- OFF UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW PROGGED BY 00Z GFS/NAM TO MOVE FROM THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST A BIT FURTHER UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW-MID 70S FOR THURSDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER IN S-CENTRAL VT DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CENTER OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S TONIGHT...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC RIDGE PREVAILS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. ALL MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECTING A LARGE SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPS...GIVEN THE DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE ACRS OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON SAT/SUNDAY...WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SUPER-BLEND VALUES. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV...WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT A BACK DOOR FRNT APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH STRONGEST LLVL CAA OCCURRING ACRS NORTHERN MAINE...WHERE BEST HGHT FALLS HAPPEN ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC WORDING IN THE GRIDS ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA...BUT QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 9-11C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE U60S NORTHERN MTNS TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK TODAY...AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW CONTS ACRS OUR TAF SITES. LATEST IR SATL PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...SOME ANTICIPATED A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK TODAY BTWN 3500 AND 5000 FEET...WITH SOME CIGS AROUND 2500 FEET AT SLK. ALSO...CRNT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER...BUT OVERALL IMPACT ON TAF SITES WL BE MINIMAL. GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING >90% BTWN 925MB AND 800MB THRU 03Z THIS EVENING...EXPECT PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH A SLOW CLRING TREND AFT 03Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS < 6 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AT MSS TODAY WITH THE ALIGNED SW TO NE FLW OF WIND ACRS THE SLV. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/SLK ON WEDS AND THURS MORNINGS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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