Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 061441 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1041 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1041 AM EDT MONDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 709 AM EDT MONDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE CRNT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS AND CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND 06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW 1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM TROFINESS AGAIN. SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI- CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS (<10 KTS). SMOKE FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN CANADIAN FIRES WILL BRING ABOUT A HAZE BUT SHOULDN/T REDUCE SURFACE VSBY BLO 7 MILES. GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BUT STILL VFR. MPV/SLK WILL LIKELY WITNESS SOME FOG BUT LIKELY ONLY TO MVFR VS. THE LIFR EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW OVERNIGHTS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. 00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.