Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 082306 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 606 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK...BUT WILL DROP WAY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 534 PM EST MONDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF VERMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO SLOW THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN SPRINGFIELD VERMONT NOW. ONLY TWEAKS AT THIS TIME WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS VERMONT AND DELAY THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT PICKING UP AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW BY THE TUESDAY MORNING WORK COMMUTE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE CONUS...BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT AREA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ON TUESDAY WITH A SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS RANGE FROM -7C SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE TO -14C NORTHEAST KINGDOM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WARMEST VALUES IN THE WEST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE MID 20S...WHILE POTSDAM/CANTON SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 30S. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...PW VALUES ARE ONLY BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.25. THIS SUPPORTS ONLY LIGHT QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARRIVES AROUND 12Z WEDS...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. WILL MENTION CHC POPS VALLEYS TO LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDS...BUT SLOWLY FALL BY WEDS NIGHT UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WEDS NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE PROFILES ARE VERY LIMITED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 317 PM EST MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH MAY ALLOW FOR A STEADIER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEP UPPER LOW. ECMWF INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD KEEP CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO SATURDAY...BUT GFS SHOWS ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST SPOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONTINUED WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BIG STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE ARCTIC CHILL...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON TO THIS POINT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW IN MOST AREAS...BUT WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND -30C. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO. COLDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 BELOW...WITH LOWER READINGS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY 5 TO 10 ABOVE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBZERO TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A MODERATION BEGINS ON MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY VFR, EVENTUALLY DETERIORATING TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS FROM THE EAST, BUILDING BACK WESTWARD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR WITH INTERVALS IFR IN LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. VERY DRY AIR HAS KEPT LIGHT SNOW FROM FALLING DESPITE RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. RECENT INDICATIONS PER VSF METAR INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVELS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE SATURATED ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO DROP FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST, SOONEST AT RUT/MPV AND LATER AT MSS, WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS. WINDS LIGHT EASTERLY. PRECIPITATION CHARACTER BECOMES MORE INTERMITTENT/SHOWERY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CEILING HEIGHTS TUESDAY. HOWEVER VIS MAY BE AS LOW AS IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH MAY BE THE MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED-00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. 00Z FRI-ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...EVENSON/TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.