Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270516 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1216 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TREND MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. LATE EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY ALL ABOUT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE REGION IS SEEING CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME, WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY 6000-10,000 FEET ABOVE GROUND. THESE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL, AND HELPED TO ARREST THE EARLIER QUICK FALLS TO THE TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, AND THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1AM AND 5AM (IN FACT, JUST WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS) AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. AS THAT CLEARING HAPPENS, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAPID FALL IN TEMPERATURES. STILL APPEARS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK -- GENERALLY 5 TO 15 *BELOW* FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VERMONT. ABOUT -5 TO +3 FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE REST OF VERMONT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST "DRY", BUT CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY HERE OR THERE. NO CHANGES IN THE FRIDAY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING QUITE COLD (-16 TO -19C), HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN) ONCE AGAIN -- A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILL WORRIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE (1040-1044 MB) REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER TIME. DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS ZERO TO -15F FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND THEN +5 TO -5F FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT INTO THE S-SW SATURDAY AROUND 10 MPH...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 309 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE WESTERN/UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW IS ILL-DEFINED BUT COME LATE SUNDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING SW TO NE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW AND ALLOWING RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. WHAT MAY POSSIBLY BE A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS STORM ARE AS FOLLOWS: WITH FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO, GFS SHOWING PWATS HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAVY PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG S-SW JET OF 40-55KTS AT 850MB TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PRECIP ENHANCEMENT ON SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD FACING SLOPES AND SHADOWING ON EASTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS, AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS SHOW TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, FURTHER SUPPORTING STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WARMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIXED PRECIP, BUT TIMING AND JUST HOW WARM IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ECMWF LAGGING BEHIND GFS IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARMING WHICH WILL AFFECT POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PTYPES. THESE MODELS HAVE ALSO NOT SHOWED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YET. THIS FAR OUT, HAVE MENTIONED SNOW MIX WITH/TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN VALLEYS, MIXING BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACR0SS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...KEEPING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SOME AREAS REACHING THE M30S WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT 850MB SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WARMING AHEAD OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH, THEN TREND SKC AT MOST TERMINALS BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS. OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR LATE TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG/KGM

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