Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271920 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 320 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 132 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW/N WINDS REACHING THE CPV. DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO NRN CPV ARE IN THE 60S...WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CPV AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN VT...DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED 70F. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE MORE HUMID AREAS ARE HELPING TO KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT-LOW CHC. OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 451 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COOLING TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES OF NORTHERN VERMONT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...MOSTLY IN THE 50S. WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL DURING THURSDAY TO 6 TO 8 C...IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...I`LL START WITH THE BOTTOM LINE: THE BIG "END OF SUMMER" LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED AT BEST. WON`T BE A TOTAL RAINOUT EACH DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AROUND. LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG. THE DAILY SPECIFICS... SATURDAY: 12Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PRIOR RUNS. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. STILL WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND NO STRONG DYNAMICS, SO FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRIMARILY SOME DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE BORDER, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR T-STORM THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM <20% DOWN IN RUTLAND-SPRINGFIELD AREA TO 30% IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO ABOUT 40% CLOSEST TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 15C WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S, BUT WITH CLOUDS, LOWER 80S SHOULD BE WHAT WE END UP WITH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GETTING INTO THE 60S. THAT MEANS A MUGGY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE 60S. SUNDAY: COULD BE A BIT INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THAT DAY WITH CAPES PUSHING 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES <0. 850MB/700MB WINDS ARE IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WHICH INDICATES SOME SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION. ALSO ON THE PRO SIDE OF SUPPORTING STRONGER CONVECTION IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE JUICED, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.9". THUS THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS RATHER HIGH. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL WE SEE AMONG ALL THE CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT, THAT DETAIL IS STILL A BIT FUZZY. WILL BE A HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F (GIVE OR TAKE DEPENDING ON SUN) AND DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S. AGAIN, DON`T THINK A TOTAL RAINOUT, BUT WORTHY OF POPS IN THE 50-60%, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD HAVE THE INDOOR BACKUP PLAN ALL WORKED OUT. MONDAY: STILL UNSETTLED, BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT OF SUNDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY AND SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS. STILL FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WITH PROBABLY MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWING 30-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE EAST AS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH. STILL QUITE WARM ALOFT -- ABOUT 15C AT 850MB, BUT HOW MUCH SUN WE GET WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE CAN GET. STILL LOOKS LIKE LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS IS ACHIEVABLE. TUESDAY: WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK TROF SWINGING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WE WILL SEE THE MIX OF SUN & CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A T-STORM OR TWO. STILL WARM ALOFT THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, SO HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY: 12Z GFS AND EURO ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING FLOW ALOFT TURNING MORE WESTERLY AND A BIT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER. HOWEVER, THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN PRIOR RUNS WHICH INDICATED A MORE POTENT TROUGH COMING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS, SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. STUCK TO OUR INTERNAL "SUPERBLEND" OF MODELS, SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOOKING LIKE VFR PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE HAVE SOME BUBBLING DAYTIME CUMULUS WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT, BUT FROM A TAF PERSPECTIVE ALL THE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, THOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MID- CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY PATCHY FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT. SO THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS MPV AND SLK ONCE AGAIN FALLING TO 1/2SM IN FOG, FEEL THAT WON`T HAPPEN. COULD SEE THE FOG INSTEAD BE TURNED INTO A BRIEF MVFR STRATUS DECK. WITH THE SMALL LAKES ADJACENT TO SLK, I COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO DEVELOPING THERE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH WITH WHAT WILL PLAY OUT WITH REGARD TO FOG AT THOSE LOCATIONS. IT`S ALWAYS A TOUGH FORECAST. OTHERWISE, AFTER 13Z OR SO, IF THERE IS ANY FOG IT WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20KTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU-12Z SAT: PRIMARILY VFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT-00Z TUE: MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR/BRIEF IFR && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...NASH

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