Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221516 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1116 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As a weak cold front moves southward from Quebec and through the North Country this afternoon, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible across central and southern areas, otherwise dry conditions are expected through the weekend as high pressure settles overhead. An upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes will bring our next chance for widespread precipitation, with periods of showers expected Sunday night through Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1114 AM EDT Saturday...Its a calm quiet and beautiful North Country Day. With the quiet weather there really isn`t anything to change to the forecast. Current forecast is in good shape with temps warming to the low 80s this afternoon. Hope you get to enjoy it! Previous Discussion...Mainly dry conditions are expected across the North Country for the next 36 hours. A weak cold front currently draped across southern Ontario and Quebec will be dropping through the region today, and may provide enough support for a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms across central and southern areas this afternoon, but coverage will be very limited such as we`ve seen the past 2 days so don`t plan on canceling any outdoor plans on that account. Highs will be slightly cooler than the past few days, but still top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Behind the front, high pressure will settle over the region for tonight with afternoon cumulus clouds dissipating to clear skies and a seasonally chilly night on tap as 925-850mb temps fall into the +10-15C range. Lows will fall into the 50s areawide, with a few upper 40s likely in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Fog will also be a good bet in the climo favored river valleys. Sunday appears to remain dry as well as our next system looks delayed enough to keep precipitation out of the area through the daylight hours. We`ve offered some chance PoPs in the late afternoon and evening, but overall expect precip to hold off with clouds increasing through the day and temps slightly below normal in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 339 AM EDT Saturday...A seasonably cool and rather showery/wet period remains in the cards during the Sunday night and Monday time frame. This morning`s model output continues to advertise a digging shortwave trough will track east-southeast into our area from southern Canada. This feature will separate a much cooler continental airmass to our northeast from more summery/humid weather to our south. Good QG forcing combined with a PWAT bubble of near 1.5 inches supports widespread showers arriving by Sunday evening across our western counties and across the remainder of the area into the overnight hours into Monday. Fairly decent lapse rates aloft also support the idea of embedded non-severe thunderstorms, a few of which could produce locally heavy downpours. The associated rain shield may also tend to pivot across our area per the mean track of the system which may act to focus heavier pockets of rainfall. Given these factors WPC has included our area in a marginal risk for flash flooding Sunday night/Monday morning. However, signals remain too mixed in this forecaster`s opinion to feel overly confident about the threat at this point so we`ll continue to monitor over the next 48 hours. With the showers and an abundance of clouds temperatures will trend on the cool side by late July standards, with lows in the 50s to around 60 Sunday night and corresponding highs on Monday mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 339 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread showers then continue Monday night with pockets of embedded thunder possible early before tapering off during Tuesday as the shortwave energy bundle exits east. Again, a few heavier downpours will be possible, but the flash flood threat, at least at this point remains on the lower side. After a brief break on Wednesday with fair weather a weak high pressure, a more distinct surface front will sweep into the region Wednesday night into Thursday with a renewed shower and thunder threat. A few of the storms could trend strong on Thursday, but plenty of time to assess that threat over the course of the next 5 days. After continued seasonably cool weather Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures trend warmer toward the middle and later portions of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. SCT-BKN cirrus deck around 20kft will continue to stream over the area today with some diurnal 060-090 cumulus developing from mid-day onward. Weak frontal boundary dropping through the area may provide an isolated shower or storm across central/southern Vermont through the evening, but too difficult to pinpoint hitting a terminal at this time. After 00Z, skies trend back to FEW-SKC with the potential for IFR fog at KMPV and KSLK after 06Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff

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