Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291812 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS. THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S RIGHT NOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY SAMPLED BY UA DATA. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT. ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25". && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK. A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROF TOMORROW. SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...SISSON

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