Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210858 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 342 PM EST SATURDAY...GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A WET AND RAINY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT. AS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN. BEGINNING TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CONTINUING TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AS THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER OF STRATUS UNDER THE INVERSION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES AT 500MB ON WEDNESDAY MORNING RIDGE WILL BEGIN PUSHING OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BURSTS OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION. THAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW STRONG THE JET IS. THE ECMWF BRINGS AT 50-60KT JET IN AT 850MB WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 10-15 KTS SLOWER. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT JET MAX IS THAT ITS OCCURRING NEAR THE SAME TIME AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SO THE THREAT OF SOME OF THOSE WINDS MIXING DOWN DOES EXIST. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL QPF TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES. WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SNOWMELT. THAT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH THE 1-2 INCHES COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER GUAGES ARE SHOWING THE RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW SO WHILE SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DONT EXPECT AT THE MOMENT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. CHRISTMAS DAY THE DRY AIR FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE IN AND THE REGION SHOULD GET DRY SLOTTED ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER TEMPS THAT WILL BE COMING FROM THE SOUTH WEST TO MOVE IN. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY BR. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. 12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO

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