Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 120240 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1040 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY. THE PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1040 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THUS...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 353 PM EDT FRIDAY...IF YOU LIKED THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY...THEN YOU SHOULD FIND NO FAULT IN SATURDAYS WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY. ANALYSIS OF KEY PARAMETERS CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION SHOWS THE WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO ENHANCE THE SPEED SHEAR OVER THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH THE SPEED SHEAR FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL NOT GET ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. PLUS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...SO FORCING WILL BE A BIT LIMITED. AGAIN WE WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST NOT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST INSTABILITY ACRS OUR REGION ON TUES. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BACK OFF SOME ON TUES...WITH BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA...WHILE DYNAMICS AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. THE BETTER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES OUR WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL VORT. THIS ENERGY INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. WL MENTION SCT/CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S. PROGGED 85H TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES BY TUESDAY...WITH SFC BOUNDARY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA...AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE SLV. AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF APPROACHES THE REGION...A RIBBON OF VERY STRONG 5H WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KNOTS DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LVL DRY SLOT...BUT PROGGED SFC INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. LOOKS LIKE A HIGHLY SHEARED/WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WINDS POTENTIAL...GIVEN SYSTEM DYNAMICS FOR TUES. MUCH COOLER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON WEDS/THURS OF NEXT WEEK. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER ON WEDS...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER VORT IN TROF AND SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HAVE CUT POPS BACK TO SCHC/CHC ON WEDS...AND NEAR 10% FOR THURS AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WL SLOWLY DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...AS SW FLW ALOFT WL PREVENT COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT FROM ADVECTING ACRS OUR REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED WHILE THE POPS ARE HIGH ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...DURATION OF RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY BE 1 TO 3 HOURS BUT PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN NATURE...DUE TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR KSLK/KMPV AND USUAL VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR CLR 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE SKC EVERYWHERE AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BUT STILL UNDER 10KT. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 5K FEET. OUTLOOK 00Z SSUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 00Z SUN - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NO CONCERNS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...NF/HANSON MARINE...EVENSON

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