Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 272337
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see warm temperatures
with highs on the order of 10 to 20 degrees above normal. In
addition...higher dew points will lead to more humid conditions
and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will
exist...especially on Sunday and Memorial Day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...our first warm and muggy night of the
summer is expected tonight with current temperatures still in the
80s with dewpoints mainly in the 60s...have noted a few upper 60s
to near 70f dewpoints in the saint lawrence valley. this heat and
moisture has created surface based cape values between 1500 and
1800 j/kg across our region...but triggers are very weak. In
addition...rap soundings show deep dry layer between 850 to 500mb
with some warming around 600mb...indicating building hghts/ridge.
given these factors and latest radar trends have trimmed back pops
to slight chance through early this evening...with temps slowly
falling back into the 70s. all covered well in current forecast.
Warm temperatures continue into the overnight with isolated
showers/thunderstorms coming to an end shortly after sunset as mid
level drying continues to suppress convective development.
Temperatures will fall into the 60s with generally clearing skies
as 500mb ridge builds over the region throughout the weekend. Warm
air continues to filter in with increasing dewpoints. With
plentiful warming, instability will increase on Saturday. While
there is a lack of forcing, diurnal heating may be enough to
trigger a few convective showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and South Central Vermont during
the afternoon. Max temperatures expected to be similar to today,
80s to low 90s, but more clouds possible as we see an increase in
moisture with PWATS nearing 1.5 inches.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper ridge will be over the region
Saturday night with fair and dry weather expected, but with lows
mainly in the 60s. Sunday will start out dry, but with
temperatures climbing to the mid to upper 80s by Sunday afternoon.
Expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
Adirondacks by late Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms
developing across the remainder of the region during Sunday
afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue into
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 348 PM EDT Friday...An upper shortwave will approach from
the eastern Great Lakes on Monday, with more showers and
thunderstorms likely. Expecting any shower or thunderstorm
activity to diminish early Monday night as the shortwave moves
east of the region. High pressure to build into the region on
Tuesday and will remain through Thursday. Models also show the
upper ridge will reestablish itself across the north country
Tuesday night through Thursday, with fair and dry weather
expected, along with cooler temperatures. Models showing a cold
front will approach the region late Thursday night and Friday,
with some timing differences on when precipitation will begin.
Have stayed with super-blend pops for Thursday night and Friday,
and will have low chance pops in for showers.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --Through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF
period...with SCT mid-upr level clouds overnight. A few guidance
sources suggest BR/HZ at SLK/MSS during the pre-dawn hours, but
higher clouds may interfere with cooling enough to prevent much in
the way of vsby restrictions, and have left out of the TAFs for
now. South-SW winds 5-10kts will become light and variable
overnight...and then becoming light NW-N during the daylight hours
Saturday. An isold shower or t-storm is possible Saturday
afternoon, but limited coverage/probability precludes any mention
in the TAFs at this point. Areas with the greatest chance for any
showers or thunderstorm activity will be the Adirondacks, southern
Champlain Valley into South-Central Vermont.
Outlook 00z Sunday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with a daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday and Monday
time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.
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The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June
20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was
April 17, 2002.
Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows: 5/27 5/28
BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978
MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978
St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978