Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281954 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 354 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY MITIGATE RADIATIVE COOLING SOMEWHAT. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPR 20S (LOCALLY NEAR 20F SLK/NERN VT) WITH MAINLY PERIODS OF THIN CIRRUS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME PERIOD AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE FEATURES OF NOTE THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT NW FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SHORTWAVE AT 500MB WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A FEW CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO USHER IN MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT. 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE NORTHEAST FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING RAIN SUNDAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY WITH THE PROSPECT OF RAIN SPREADING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 332 PM EDT THURSDAY...GUIDANCE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES THE DETAILS AND IS BELOW...WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPPER ENERGY WITHIN A SLOWLY MOVING MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A COASTAL SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING PAST CAPE COD AREA LATE MONDAY. EXPECT LOW TO DEPART NORTH AND EAST, ENDING PRECIP OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAY EMBEDDED IN 500MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S AND MINS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND LIGHT WINDS. SKC DAYTIME WITH SCT250 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MAYBE TRENDING TOWARD BKN250 BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AROUND KSLK AND KRUT. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THRU SATURDAY WITH NO SIG WX. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ENEWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH POTENTIAL RAINFALL SUN INTO MON. MVFR W/ INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE SUN-MON.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/ALY NEAR TERM...BANACOS/ALY SHORT TERM...KGM/ALY LONG TERM...KGM/ALY AVIATION...BANACOS/ALY

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