Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201916 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 103 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST STILL ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK. BETTER MIXING IN AREAS OF CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER GUSTS - UP TO 41 MPH AT BTV. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED PNSBTV FOR A LISTING OF GUSTS. ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY - WITH DIURNAL HEATING DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN THAT TEMPERATURE VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS PRIOR FORECAST INDICATED...STILL THINK THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS STAND TO SEE THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPS /UPPER 60S-MID 70S/. UNDER PERSISTENT OVERCAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BURLINGTON COUNTY WARNING AREA...LIKELY REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING! PRECIPITATION SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV COUNTY WARNING AREA SUBSEQUENTLY ENDING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW- MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMSS BY 10Z AND REACH KPBG AND KBTV BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST DESPITE THE RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS/EVENSON MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

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