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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 180520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 120 AM EDT TUESDAY...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS UPWARD TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON MORNING LOWS AND
HAVE TWEAKED UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THOUGH SOME CLOUDS LINGER WITH UPPER TROF
OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...DECENT CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST (THU/FRI) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK AND DYING SURFACE FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
ONLY A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TRAILING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO TREND AWAY
FROM CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
VARIABILITY AT NIGHT OWING TO NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE LOWER...THOUGH WITH EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST
INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT BY ANY MEANS...BUT DEFINITELY LOOKING MORE
LIKE SUMMER AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING
INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES DOES REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH HOWEVER...SO ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THESE LATER PERIODS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...VERY
DIFFICULT TO ATTEMPT TO TIME INDIVIDUAL COMPLEXES AND TOOK A MORE
PRAGMATIC APPROACH AT THIS POINT OFFERING ONLY LOWER CHC POPS (25
TO 35%) UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...QUIETER WEATHER NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS WITH SCT/BKN VFR CEILINGS DUE TO LEFTOVER DIURNAL
CUMULUS. THESE WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNSET YIELDING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. FOG WITH VLIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER
06Z AT RUT AND MPV THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SINCE BOTH LOCATIONS
DID SEE SOME RAINFALL TODAY. THINK SLK WILL ALSO STAND TO GET AT
LEAST IFR MIST...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY HELP KEEP MORE PERSISTENT FOG FROM SETTING IN.
NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AT RUT AND SLK AFTER
18Z TUESDAY WHERE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE INITIALLY BUT TENDING TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT OR
BELOW 10KTS...EXCEPT AT PBG DUE TO LAKE BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS END EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z
EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

06Z SATURDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR SCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OR TWO TO AFFECT THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO