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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 200819
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH MEAN 925MB TEMPS OF +14-18C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER.
SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN NY WHERE POPS
ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT FURTHER REMOVED
FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO NH/MAINE. 00Z
GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO CARRIED A PERIOD OF
LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT
INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW
LOWER 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH VALLEY
HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT
DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX CONDITIONS THRU
NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS VT AT 05Z
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT.
ANTICIPATE THAT BULK OF THE REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE TAF SITES NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND ONLY CARRIED PREVAILING
-SHRA IN THE TAF AT MPV. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT
MPV/SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF FOG AT
MSS...THOUGH RECENT TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVING VSBY AS LIGHT SW
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.

THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 14Z WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING...AND HAVE ALL SITES TRENDING VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z
MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY S-SW EARLY THIS AM. A WEAK NWLY WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AFTN...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10
KTS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LOOKING AT BKN060-100 WITH LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE PERIODS
OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. VERY WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME FRAME
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS