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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 171728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 118 PM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY
TWEAKS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BY ANOTHER DEGREE PER TREND IN LAV DATA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUDY
PERIODS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. RETURN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST. FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT FRIDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING FAIRLY DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY THOUGH...RIDGE BREAKS DOWN INTO FAST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTL BORDER. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...THIS WILL SET UP A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH MID-LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TEMP
AND POP FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR TEMPS WHICH HIGHLIGHTS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LOOK TO BE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THOUGH AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BTV CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z SATURDAY WL PREVAIL
AT OUR TAF SITES. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE AXIS ACRS WESTERN NY
WITH MOVEMENT TWD OUR REGION. SOME SFC HEATING CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACRS THE MTNS...WHICH WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN TONIGHT. SLK WL REACH 2 TO 3 DEGREES BLW CROSS OVER TEMP
TONIGHT...BUT LLVLS ARE VERY DRY...THEREFORE NOT THINKING ANY
FOG/BR ATTM. SATURDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TWD AFTN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR FROM 18Z THRU TUESDAY...WITH CHCS INCREASING FOR SHOWERS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY ON TUES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION...A SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRNT WL BE POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...TABER