Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252326 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 626 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD AIR. FORTUNATELY...A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 158 PM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND MAINLY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS AS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC FRONT THEN BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME MID/HI MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDINESS...ESP SOUTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL CHILL DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS BY THU MORNING...CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD AND WIDESPREAD FOR SUB-ZERO. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 158 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE..SOME BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY BUT IT WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FRI-SAT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MORE ARCTIC AIR BUT MODIFIED COMPARED TO RECENT BOUTS. MAX T MAINLY 8-18 IN THE VALLEYS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS THU-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS LAST ARCTIC OUTBREAK...YET STILL SUB-ZERO FOR THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...THUS THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS NOT LIKELY TO REQUIRE ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES. AGAIN...MODERATING TREND BEGINS JUST AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 258 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE SATURDAY...LIMITING MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT, SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. S-SW FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY SPREADING WEST TO EAST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NW FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE M20S-L30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EMERGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE DUE TO FETCH FROM GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES NORTHEAST. ANOTHER BOUT OF WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE BIT OF MIXED PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MASSENA TAF SITE AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE FAN FAIR. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND INTO VERMONT THIS EVENING...WITH MAYBE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. I HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO INDICATE POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VIS AROUND 3SM AND CEILINGS OF 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE RACING IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL STREAK ACROSS OUR TAF SITES AFTER 04Z WITH DEVELOPING CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRIDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY ONWARD...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO DEVELOP. VIS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3SM AND CIGS BROKEN TO OVERCAST AT 1500 TO 3000 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM/TABER

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