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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160829
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly dry and pleasant day is expected with temperatures
warming into the 50s to near 60 degrees. A spot sprinkle or
light shower is possible this afternoon into the evening hours
across northern Vermont. As a ridge of high pressure at all
levels builds into the North Country on Wednesday, a mostly
sunny and warm day is anticipated, before clouds and a few
showers are possible for Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...Crnt sfc obs show some patchy ground
fog has developed at SLK with some light mist being reported at
MSS due to earlier rainfall and cooling temps under clearing
skies. Any fog should dissipate quick this morning as bl mixing
increases around sunrise.

For today, mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the fa with weak
embedded s/w energy. This energy has limited moisture to work
with, but weak instability develops during peak heating,
combined with upslope flow may produce a few light sprinkles or
rain showers acrs northern VT this aftn/evening. Any rainfall wl
be light and mainly confined to the higher trrn. Temps wl range
from near 60F lower CT River Valley/CPV to mid/upper 40s NEK
and higher trrn. Tonight is quiet with any lingering showers
dissipating quickly and mostly clear skies developing. Fog
should be limited as northwest flow results in drier bl
conditions. Temps drop back into the mid 20s NEK/SLK to l/m 30s
CPV/SLV. On Weds mid/upper lvl ridge builds acrs our fa with sfc
high pres nosing into the North Country. This results in deep
dry layer overhead with plenty of sunshine and mild temps. Given
the drying aloft, have trended toward the lower sfc dwpts to
capture min rh values near critical low levels better. Temps
warm are a few degrees warmer in several locations given plenty
of sunshine and drier bl conditions. Highs mid 50s to lower 60s
most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...After a period of pleasant and dry
weather, an approaching front will bring increasing clouds and the
next chances of precipitation to the region Wednesday night into
Thursday. This occluded front will bring light rain showers to the
region, although there is a question of how far eastward it is able
to progress before it falls apart Thursday night into Friday
morning. The greatest confidence for measurable precipitation will
be across northern New York, with greater uncertainty as you head
towards eastern Vermont. Precipitation amounts remain light, with
less than 0.5 inches across the region. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees warmer than climatological normals with the increased cloud
cover, with temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Daytime high
temperatures will also be near normal, generally in the 50s,
although precipitation and cloud cover may influence these
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 416 AM EDT Tuesday...Unsettled weather will continue through
the end of week as a sharp cold front passes across the region
Friday night, bringing additional chances for precipitation. While
precipitation will likely be more widespread in comparison to
Thursday, precipitation amounts should remain on the lighter side.
Some light scattered showers may continue during the day on Saturday
with weak shortwave forcing, although lingering low-level moisture
will be limited, keeping the showers isolated in nature. Saturday
will also feature some brisk westerly winds behind the frontal
passage, with gusts near 25 mph possible and even breezier across
the high terrain. As we head into the end of the weekend and early
next week, high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing
another period of mostly dry weather. Temperatures over the weekend
will be fairly seasonable, with highs in the 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions anticipated the
next 12 to 24 hours, however shallow fog has developed at SLK
early this morning associated with brief rain shower earlier.
Feel intervals of IFR are possible thru 10z, but confidence is
rather low given bl winds around 5 knots and some mid lvl
clouds. Therefore have utilized tempo group from 06z to 10z for
IFR in fog/br. Elsewhere expect VFR conditions with some
intervals of mid/upper lvl clouds and mostly light and variable
winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber