Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 081727
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
1227 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
Some rain and snow showers will be over the north country today
and tonight. Much colder air will move south from Canada tonight
with high temperatures from Friday through Sunday only in the
20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on
Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be
chance for snow showers across the north country from Sunday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM Friday MORNING/...
As of 1020 AM EST Thursday...Composite radar loop showing well
established lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario extending
northeast across southeast Saint Lawrence, southern Frankin and
northern Essex counties in New York. Only changes were to lower
POPs over far northern NY as band is slightly further south on
radar. Band forecast to continue moving south today, but another
area of snow/snow showers will likely develop across the remainder
of the region today as a secondary cold front drops south. BTV 4
KM model shows a band of precipitation moving south from late this
afternoon through this evening. Continued with mainly chance pops
across the remainder of the region for today/tonight, except
likely pops over portions of northern Vermont this afternoon. As
colder and drier air filters into the region tonight, snow showers
should gradually diminish but will continue with chance pops for
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EST Thursday... 500mb trough with embedded
vorticity will see continued chance for snow showers Friday,
followed by slight ridging Friday night/early Saturday morning.
Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic
snow showers. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday,
bringing an end to snow showers across the regions.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Thursday...Active pattern continues in the
long term with multiple shortwave energy moving through the
North Country. The first arrives Sunday with snow showers. This
looks to be followed by a more significant system Monday.
Currently 00Z guidance showers surface low moving from the Ohio
River valley to the coast, mainly on Sunday night into Monday.
Complicated forecast as surface high pressure resides over
eastern Canada, keeping cooler air over the region in ESE/SE
flow. Model guidance continues to diverge on solutions for the
middle of next week with regard to large mid level low. Slightly
below temperatures continue throughout the period.
.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --As an upper level trough moves into the region, the combination of
cyclonic flow, upslope and lake-effect activity will allow for
snow showers over the region for this afternoon into tonight. The
most persistent snow showers will be near SLK/MPV, which will
allow for IFR conditions for much of the the time by late this
afternoon and through tonight. Some improvement back to MVFR
conditions looks to occur at some point later on Friday morning.
Cannot rule out some brief periods of IFR/MVFR conditions at
MSS/BTV/PBG/RUT through this afternoon and into early this evening within
passing snow showers and/or lower stratocu clouds, but flying
conditions generally will be VFR for much of the time with just
ovc cigs at 3500-6000 ft. It looks mainly VFR tonight into
tomorrow, although a few passing light snow showers or flurries
are certainly possible.
Winds will continue to be W-NW at 10-15 kts. A few higher gusts
will be possible from time to time, especially for the higher
terrain terminals. Winds will diminish slightly overnight, but
will increase back to near 15 kts on Friday.
Outlook 18Z Friday through Monday...
Mvfr cigs linger at slk/mpv on Friday afternoon with vfr
developing Friday night into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday
afternoon with another widespread light snow event. This system
will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z
-- End Changed Discussion --
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for