Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 270900 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 400 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MORNING MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL TREND MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1215 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230 UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. LATE EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY ALL ABOUT MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE REGION IS SEEING CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS TIME, WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY 6000-10,000 FEET ABOVE GROUND. THESE THICKER CLOUDS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL, AND HELPED TO ARREST THE EARLIER QUICK FALLS TO THE TEMPERATURES. THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, AND THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 1AM AND 5AM (IN FACT, JUST WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER IS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS) AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. AS THAT CLEARING HAPPENS, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAPID FALL IN TEMPERATURES. STILL APPEARS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON TRACK -- GENERALLY 5 TO 15 *BELOW* FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VERMONT. ABOUT -5 TO +3 FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE REST OF VERMONT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST "DRY", BUT CANT RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY HERE OR THERE. NO CHANGES IN THE FRIDAY FORECAST. LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN, BUT WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING QUITE COLD (-16 TO -19C), HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS (SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN) ONCE AGAIN -- A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILL WORRIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 305 PM EST THURSDAY...STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE (1040-1044 MB) REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. AIR MASS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER TIME. DIDN/T SEE ANY REASON TO STRAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS ZERO TO -15F FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND THEN +5 TO -5F FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT INTO THE S-SW SATURDAY AROUND 10 MPH...AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS. POPS NIL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH...THEN SKIES TREND SKC AT MOST TERMINALS BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-06Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 06Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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