Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221927 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF 900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP 850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...
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A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM OR SO TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...HANSON MARINE...MUCCILLI

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