Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 212025 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 425 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet weather tonight under a mild humid southwest flow with high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Very warm temperatures continue on Tuesday, but an approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening tapering off Tuesday night. Cooler weather is e with showers lingering into Wednesday. The remainder of the week is shaping up to be cooler and drier with below normal temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 425 PM EDT Monday...High pressure at the surface and upper-level ridge off the mid-Atlantic coast combine to bring fair weather and a warm humid west southwest flow over the north country tonight. There may be a few hours of patchy fog in the usual fog-prone valleys in the Adirondacks and eastern VT, but there should be enough boundary layer flow to prevent widespread fog. Low tonight mainly in the 60s except around 70 near Lake Champlain. More active weather is expected beginning Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system will deepens as it moves northward across the western Great Lakes into Canada as strong 500 mb trof approaches from the west. A strengthening southwest flow will advect deep moisture with precipitable water to near 2" and instability of 1000-2000 J/k CAPE. Increasing shear profiles are expected ahead of a surface cold front with 500 mb jet of 50 kts resulting in 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kts with 0-1km shear of 20-30 kt resulting in strong to severe organized storms as mentioned in SPC slight risk outlook for the area. Highest threat of severe storms will be 18-00z centered over VT around 21z or time of max heating. Heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are possible with these storms, but storm motions should be fast enough to avoid flash flooding. Temperatures will warm to almost 85 to near 90 across the area as 850 temps near 17C. The cold front will move across the region Tuesday night and be east of Vermont by 12z Wednesday morning. Still some chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as the front passes. Lows mid 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 425 PM EDT Monday...On Wed a broad cyclonic west southwest flow aloft with the upper trof axis over the Great Lakes will bring partly sunny skies along with with cold advection will bring a possibility of isolated shower or sprinkle, mainly across the far north right through Wednesday night. 850 temps fall to 8-10C and will bring high temps mainly in the 70s with lows Wed night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 425 PM EDT Monday...The upper level trough will be swinging across the region early in the time period. Dry high surface pressure will have already moved into the area behind a cold front so any lingering showers will be light. An extension of the upper level low will continue to rotate over the canadian maritimes through the weekend swinging periodic vort maxes across the region. This will lead to mainly slight chances for showers over the Northeast Kingdom where orographic affects will aid in development. Temperatures will be slightly lower than normal throughout the period.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR in westerly flow under high pressure except lcl IFR in intermittent patchy fog SLK/MPV 07-11Z as boundary layer winds will decouple but enough to preclude prolonged fog. Winds S-SW around 10kts, with gusts around 20kts at KMSS and KSLK. Winds will subside this evening, decreasing to around 5 kts or less. On Tuesday, continued VFR through 18z but shower and thunderstorm threat increases ahead of a cold front at the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Occasional TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE...
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A storm system will approach the region tonight into tomorrow. Ahead of the system, south winds will increase to 20 to 25 kts over the lake by tomorrow afternoon with waves building to 2 to 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms. Winds will begin to diminish by late evening.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...Sisson

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