Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 062315 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 715 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE NORTH AND EAST OF MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FILAMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RICHER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT NNEWD FROM S-CENTRAL NY AND PA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 63-68F RANGE...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH...5-10 MPH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL...AS IT APPEARS LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES AND MEAN WIND SPEEDS SFC-3KFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT MIXED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING CLOUDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1300 J/KG BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY...WITH WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 12000 TO 13000 FEET...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SPC ONLY HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE GONE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...AS FEEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COMING TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE REGION BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 321 PM EDT MONDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF DRY SUMMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THURSDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC MOVING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEEP MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BTV CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD ALLOWING MORE TROUGHINESS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, DEEPENING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ERODING AFTER SUNSET LEAVING JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER 06Z, SKY COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CIGS UNDER THE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT KSLK/KMSS TOWARDS SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 040-060 WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AREA-WIDE AFTER 15Z. VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5KTS GO CALM OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASE AFTER 12Z FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUE - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. 18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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