Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 201947 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong high pressure across Quebec and northern New England will result in a chilly and mostly clear night, and continued fair weather for much of the day Sunday. With clear skies and diminishing wind, expecting some areas of frost after midnight across the Northern Adirondack region, as well as portions of north-central into northeastern Vermont. Will see a gradual increase in clouds later Sunday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This warm front will bring overcast skies and periods of rain during Sunday night into Monday morning. Rainfall amounts between one- third and one-half inch are generally expected across the North Country. Tuesday will see a brief return of surface high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Relatively quiet conditions over the next 24 hrs, with areas of frost tonight in the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern VT the only concern for agricultural interests. Strong (1035mb) surface anticyclone centered across western Quebec resulting in clear skies for the North Country, though winds have been a bit brisk from the N-NE at 10-20 mph. PBL will quickly stabilize this evening resulting in diminishing winds, generally NE at 5 mph or less in most locations. With sfc dewpoints in the mid-upr 20s this aftn, should set up good radiative cooling conditions overnight. Looking for lows early Sunday morning ranging from the upr 30s to lower 40s in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys, and generally low-mid 30s east of the Green Mtns and in the northern Adirondacks. There will be some normally colder spots - such as Saranac Lake (KSLK) and Island Pond - that will likely see lows dip into the 20s tonight. Added srn St. Lawrence County and western Clinton County to the frost advisory, while keeping n-central/nern VT as is in the frost advisory...which runs thru 11Z Sunday. PoPs NIL tonight. Will see temperatures rise quickly on Sunday, as winds turn into the south around 10 mph. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the past couple of days, generally ranging from the upr 60s to lower 70s. Anticipate filtered sunshine as upr- mid level clouds spread ewd from the Great Lakes with increasing mid- level WAA regime moving in. That said, there is good amplification of a shortwave ridge across NY/New England 700-500mb layer during the daylight hrs...and a lack of low-level convergence. Thus, kept conditions dry Sunday, with just a slight chance of a rain shower moving into St. Lawrence/Franklin Co toward 23Z (7pm) Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...Will see an unsettled period of weather, with well-defined region of 850-700mb WAA and isentropic lift moving enewd across our region during Sunday night thru Monday morning. Rain showers should overspread the region from W-E during Sunday night, per consensus of mesoscale and global model suite. We have increased PoPs to near 80 percent for the pre- dawn hrs Monday based on latest trends in NWP guidance. Should see shower activity gradually move out from west to east Monday morning with decreased forcing for ascent and drier deep-layer RH values into Monday aftn. All in all, looking for 0.33-0.50" precipitation, likely highest in the nrn Adirondacks with S-SW flow regime setting up. Lows on Sunday night generally 45-52F, with Monday`s highs in the low- mid 60s from the Champlain Valley wwd, and in the low-mid 50s with lingering low overcast expected for ern VT. Winds will increase from the south during Sunday night, generally 10-15 mph. We may briefly see Lake Wind Advisory criteria on Lake Champlain from 07Z-14Z Monday, with south winds across the broad lake of 15-25 kt. Generally quiet Monday night with variably cloudy conditions. Additionally, SW flow regime will keep temps on the mild side, generally in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be a quiet start to the long term period after the passage of a cold front. Winds remain southwesterly behind the front so little change in temperatures lead to an rebound back into the 70`s for the day. From here the models disagree but overall show a more unsettled period into the weekend. The ECMWF shows a coastal low moving northeast into New England bringing precipitation all the way into the counties east of the Green Mountains, while the GFS keeps the low further out to sea and keeping a precip far to the east of the CWA. Meanwhile, both show a positively tilted upper trough associated surface low over the midwest with the GFS quickly closing off the upper low by Wednesday morning. This slows the progression of the system while the ECMWF doesn`t show the low closing until closer to Thursday. In both cases, this leads to an extended period of potential showers for Wednesday through early Saturday morning as tracks northeast past through the region and east out of the area. Both models have very different solutions but come to the same conclusion with chance to likely PoPs each day. Either way, it should be a wet end to the week. High temperatures in the long term will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s, while lows will be in the 40s to 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR. No vsby restrictions expected. Skies generally clear through tonight, becoming SCT-BKN150-250 during Sunday AM as mid-upper level clouds filter in from the west. Winds generally N 10-15kts at RUT/BTV/MPV, and locally NE around 10-12kts at MSS/PBG/SLK thru 23z. Winds becoming light and variable areawide tonight with stable boundary layer conditions, then winds developing S-SE 5-10kts during the morning hrs on Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. Monday: MVFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ029>031-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...MV AVIATION...Banacos

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