Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 021431 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1031 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1024 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14Z INDICATES THAT LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES TO HOLD. SUBSIDENCE/INVERSION LAYER AROUND 850MB PER NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS AND WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWING THE RATE OF PBL DEEPENING/MIXING...AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF CLEARING THRU EARLY AFTN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TODAY. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 17-18C THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS. A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS REST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT DUE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT 15-30 POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWARD DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED 40-50 POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY...BUT ONLY AROUND 20 POP FOR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND SPREADS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REALLY NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WHICH WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR SATURDAY, BUMPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN HAVE A COUPLE SHOTS AT A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS IN THE VALLEYS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT STARTING OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S, BUT BECOME MILDER THEREAFTER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR WILL PERSIST AT KMSS/KSLK/KMPV UNTIL 14Z WHEN THEREAFTER CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 00Z, AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO WILL ALLOW NEXT TAF CYCLE TO ADDRESS. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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