Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260752 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 352 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. WHILE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AN ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND FOR THE SUMMITS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS QUICKLY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER BUT CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT TUESDAY...INTERESTING SETUP FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HRS WITH VIGOROUS AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY CENTERED ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN/NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AT 06Z. STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE EAST OF THE VORT MAX AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A CONSIDERABLE AMT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FOR THIS PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS SERN MICHIGAN/LAKE ERIE/SERN ONTARIO AREAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG SFC-850MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING W-E ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FORCING 09-18Z IMPACTING ESPECIALLY THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...WITH LIGHT N-NE FLOW IN FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING LOW PBL DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THAT SAID...STRONG SYNOPTIC AND FRONTAL-SCALE DYNAMICS WILL RAPIDLY SATURATE THE COLUMN AND WILL HAVE EXCELLENT WET BULB COOLING AS PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. ALREADY GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT SLK/MPV WITH INITIAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE SRN CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS AT 0745Z. ONE SECTION OF THE CWA THAT MAY NOT SEE PCPN IS ALONG THE INTL BORDER...FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING AND IN DRIER AIR MASS. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE WET SNOW AND LOWER VALLEY RAIN DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK AS DIABATIC COOLING FORCES TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S. WET SNOWFLAKES BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN/CT RIVER VALLEYS (PERHAPS A SLUSHY COATING IN GRASSY AREAS). HOWEVER...STRONG ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENCE EXPECTED IN SNOWFALL WITH POTL FOR 1-3" ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GREEN MTNS ABOVE 1000`. SHOULD SEE A FEW 4" SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR GREEN MTN SUMMITS FROM WAITSFIELD DOWN TO KILLINGTON BY THE TIME THINGS WIND DOWN AT 18Z. GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR POPULATED SECTIONS...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SPS TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR SOME MINOR TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS...INCLUDING SOME SLUSHY ACCUM POSSIBLE ON I-89 BROOKFIELD AREA. QPF AMTS 0.35-0.45" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN 6-9 HR PERIOD WITH GOOD UVV AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SRN VT MID MORNING HRS. QPF AROUND 0.25" FOR BTV AND 0.10" OR LESS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER WITH STRONG PRECIP GRADIENT EXPECTED ON NRN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD. 2-M TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 30S...BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S MID-LATE AFTN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. QUIET AND MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SEWD FROM NRN ONTARIO. CHILLY AIR MASS FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY LOW-MID 20S NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND UPR 20S FOR S-CENTRAL VT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CONTINUED SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE POINTING TO THE RAPIDLY ENDING OF PRECIP I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THAT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 40S. THE PERTINENT WEATHER CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND JUST HOW DRY WE GET. LOW DAYTIME RH`S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MINIMUM RH`S IN THE 20-25% RANGE HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW FIRE WEATHER CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT MONDAY...THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST PIVOTS AROUND BUT REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH CONTINUES NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. THATS EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS AND EVENINGS HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A MODERATING TREND TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK WITH TEMPS FINALLY CRACKING INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SO I OPTED TO JUST KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPING MVFR TO IFR IN WET SNOW MAINLY 09-18Z WITH HIR TRRN OBSCD. LESSER POTL FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTL BORDER...SO MSS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR. SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT MPV...AND 1-2" SNOWFALL AT SLK CAUSING SOME IMPACT FOR GROUND OPERATIONS THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES...BUT MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO WET SNOW THRU 17-18Z...MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES AT ONSET AND AGAIN LATE MORNING. IMPROVING BACK TO VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES MID AND LATE AFTN AND GENERALLY SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY N-NE AT 10KTS OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT NW TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...BANACOS/SLW

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