Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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584 FXUS61 KBTV 092323 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 623 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue across the North Country this afternoon and evening before surface high pressure builds into the region on Saturday. While drier conditions are expected to begin the weekend, skies will remain fairly cloudy with scattered flurries and temperatures running well below normal. A warm front approaching the area Sunday night will bring snow back into the region early Monday morning, likely making for a messy morning commute. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 620 PM EST Friday...For the evening update, very little change. Just some small updates to the cloud cover over the St Lawrence Valley as the small window of clearing is not materializing. Beyond that, forecast remains on track with scattered snow showers continuing, most persistent across the higher terrain, and temperatures holding steady in the 20s for most locations under cloudy skies. Winds remain gusty up towards 25 mph making it feel like it`s in the teens. A nice wintry feeling to end the work week. For tonight, will mainly be offering a persistence forecast as mid/upper level flow remains out of the west/northwest combining with ample low level moisture to continue to produce widely broken to overcast skies. Should see snow shower activity start to diminish though as surface high pressure currently moving into the Ohio Valley approaches, but don`t be surprised to see some isolated to scattered flurries around, especially along the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. With mostly cloudy skies in the forecast, strong cold air advection ahead of the approaching high will be hampered some, limiting temperatures from plummeting too far below seasonal normals. Should be one of the coldest nights of the season thus far though with widespread teens in the deeper valleys, and single digit values elsewhere. Aforementioned surface high pressure builds into the region tomorrow with generally partly sunny skies and scattered flurries around. Temps rebound from chilly morning lows, but will still top out well below normal only in the upper teens to mid 20s. Across the higher summits, temps won`t budge out of the single digits, so if you`re heading to the hills for some fresh powder make sure to bundle up!
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 218 PM EST Friday...By Saturday night into Sunday generally quiet conditions are expected with surface high pressure being the dominant driver of sensible weather. A moderately moist, light westerly flow pattern argues for persistence in this period with partly cloudy skies and perhaps a few flurries or snow showers, especially across the higher terrain and to the lee of Lake Ontario across the southern SLV/western Dacks. Temperatures remain seasonably cold with lows more or less in the 5 to 15 above range and subsequent highs on Sunday in the 20s. By Sunday night our next system is progged to arrive over time as occluding cyclone across the upper Great Lakes drives strong moisture and warm occlusion northeast into our region. Thermal profiles solidly cold enough for all snow, which should arrive in steady fashion from southwest to northeast over time as robust isentropic lift in mid-levels interacts with the prime dendritic snow growth layer. South to southeasterly 925-850 mb flow also increases sharply during this time (30 to 50 knots) so valley shadowing effects will be possible at least to some extent with possible upslope enhancement along eastern facing slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. As we draw closer to the event finer scale detail offered by the higher-resolution models should provide some additional value. However, a general accumulation of 2-4 inches by the Monday morning commute seems plausible at this point as temperatures hold steady, or slowly climb through the 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 218 PM EST Friday...Best forcing for precipitation then swings through and north/east of the area Monday morning through early afternoon with best moisture advection/isentropic lift associated with the occlusion. Precipitation will taper off to very light snow/drizzle and/or freezing drizzle by afternoon as a pronounced dry slot works in aloft. Some light icing will be possible across portions of the area during the later part of the day, mainly across the eastern portions of the Dacks and eastern VT where sheltered sub-freezing air will be tough to scour out. Snow totals for the event fairly typical for a strong warm advective event - generally 3-7 inches with local variation. Highs on Monday mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Dacks and eastern Vermont, with lower to mid 30s in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. The remainder of the forecast from Tuesday onward generally features broad west to northwesterly flow with periodic chances of snow showers as a large, modified arctic airmass persists across nearly the entire northern tier of the lower 48. There remains some disparity among solutions in regard to additional energy ejecting from the plains states east/northeast along the polar front by mid to late week and additional chances for steadier snows in our area. The eventual solution seems to hinge on the degree this energy can phase with a rather potent polar gyre dropping through central and eastern Canada, and the extent to which moisture can be drawn back north atop the polar boundary. Given the current uncertainty will maintain persistence here capping pops in the chance category as temperatures start seasonably cold and trend quite chilly by later next week as modified arctic air continues to bleed south and east from central Canada. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Through 18Z Saturday...Conditions will be largely VFR through the period under BKN-OVC cigs. Scattered snow showers mainly affecting KSLK and KMPV will continue to provide brief periods of MVFR cigs and IFR vsby, mainly through 00z before dissipating. Gusty winds this afternoon up towards 25kts gradually abate tonight, returning to 5-10kts on Saturday. Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday... 18Z Saturday through 06Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 06z Monday through 00z Tuesday...Widespread MVFR cigs and IFR vsby in light snow. 00Z Tuesday through 00z Thursday...Mix of MVFR/VFR cigs with scattered snow showers locally reducing vsby to IFR at times, mainly at KSLK/KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/MV SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff/MV

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