Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 012250 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND SNOW OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING SINGLE DIGITS. SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL

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