Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 031953 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 353 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 351 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINING TO INCREASE OFF THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES. AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE OVERCAST SKIES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION. WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS FINAL ERODE BREAKING THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ONCE THAT INVERSION BREAKS EXPECT DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN AND LEAD TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY BREAK. GIVEN THE LOWERED CHANCE I KEPT MENTION OF VCSH OUT OF THE 18Z SUITE BUT EXPECT THEY WILL BE INTRODUCED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...DEAL/SISSON

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