Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 250736 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 336 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S 00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT - PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV AND/OR SLK. 00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO

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