Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 230755 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40" ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE. WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS) AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES. && .MARINE... AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE. STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...NASH MARINE...NASH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.