Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281147 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 747 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 747 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY THIS MORNING AND THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING A RATHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAIN. ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES POSSIBLE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SHOWERS CONT TO LIFT NE ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE NOTED SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IF CRNT TRENDS CONT VCTS COULD OCCUR AT MSS BTWN 12-14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIFTING NE OF OUR TAF SITES BY 15Z. ALSO...LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP AFT 00Z WEDS...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRNT. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ON WEDS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY BY SAT MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK...WITH DEVELOPING IFR POSSIBLE AT BTV/RUT BY SAT MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING CIGS/VIS FROM UPSLOPE FLW. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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