Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 022220 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 620 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT BEFORE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH DURING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 613 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE ESE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OTTAWA. BASED ON LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS THE AREA STILL IS QUITE PRIMED FOR INSTABILITY AS THE RIDGE BRIEFING BREAKS DOWN THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION AND ISN`T EXPECTED UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SHOWERS COVERED WITH MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE VERMONT CANADA BORDER. EXPECT AS THE SHOWERS FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL DECREASE OUR OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SO ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 331 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF HAZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH RELATIVELY LOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE (AROUND 850MB). WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN QUEBEC...WELL NORTH AND WEST OF MONTREAL. AS UPR RIDGE BRIEFLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BNDRY WILL SHIFT SWD REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND SHIFTING ACROSS NRN VT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PASSAGE OF THE BNDRY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS OCCURRING DURING DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE...AND CARRIED JUST A 20-30 POP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN NY INTO FAR NRN VT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. ARRIVAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG FORMATION EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST TO THOSE FAVORED AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT. NW-N WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL VORT GRADUALLY PUSH SWD ACROSS VT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXPANSION IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REACHES S-CENTRAL VT...AND ULTIMATELY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF 30-40 POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE MID-DAY PERIOD THURSDAY BEFORE FRONT EXITS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FOR THE AFTN HRS...ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG DROP IN PW VALUES LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGHS WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY SEEING 80-85F MOST SECTIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 331 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NIL POPS. VERY QUIET PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL FOG 06-12Z BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT A FEW MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WITHIN THE VALLEYS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVERHEAD SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FORECAST 80-85 SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 83-88 ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 85-90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES (15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). TUESDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WARMTH PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE STRONGER SYSTEM LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS STILL 80-85. LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS. TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL JUST SHOW VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN CANADA EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR AT SLK) STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING. FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY INCREASING CLOUDS BUT SOME STILL LIKELY TO FORM AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK. WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY 5-7 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SE AT PBG WITH LAKE BREEZE)...BECOME LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT RUT WITH DRAINAGE WIND)...BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. CHANCE TSRA THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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