Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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567 FXUS61 KBTV 150915 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 415 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the North Country will continue to provide the region with clear skies and very cold temperatures today. An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region will bring a chance for snow showers for Friday night through Saturday, with the weekend ending cool and dry on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM EST Friday...Another dry and cold day is in store for today, with increasing clouds through the day. A weak low pressure system and upper level trough will approach from the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Surface high pressure will shift eastward as these feature approach. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today than yesterday, about 5 degrees, as south southwesterly flow develops. This flow will also bring chance for lake effect snow showers to the Southern Saint Lawrence valley and parts of the Northern Adirondacks. Heaviest lake effect snow will remain south of our region across the tug hill plateau. Upper level trough swings across our forecast area tonight and brings a better chance for light snow showers, especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals overnight with clouds and snow, as well as winds. Best chance at some accumulations will be along the Saint Lawrence river with lake effect bands, then in the northwest upslope regions of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains tonight into Saturday, generally 1-3". The rest of the area should only have an inch or less of snow with the widespread scattered light snow showers. Slow warming trend will begin Saturday and temperatures will be in the 20s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 343 AM EST Friday...Quiet weather is expected through Saturday night and Sunday as a 1030mb high drifts to the east over southern Quebec. The flow aloft will remain northwest as weak ridging occurs aloft. There`s a slight chance of some western slope snow potential as the hires models are keying on some 10-15dbz`s in along the western slopes of the Greens. The safe bet is we`ll see some flurries but very little in the way of accumulation. Temps should be on the chilly side over the weekend with lows Saturday evening in the single digits, and highs on Sunday only warming to the teens, to lower 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 410 AM EST Friday....Coming out of the weekend we still anticipate a fairly active pattern. The medium ranged guidance still offers different ideas for how Monday shapes up. The GFS is still the outlier with a dry forecast so I continued the trend towards the CMC/EC with a weak warm advection shortwave that brings some light snow to the region Monday afternoon. By Tuesday the general consensus from the global models is that we`ll have trough of low pressure swing through the North Country. We`ll be under strong warm air advection in the morning and we`ll see temps warm enough to see rain at elevations below 2000ft with some rain/snow mix in the 2000-3000ft range. The higher peaks will most likely stay as snow. Of course timing differences in when the precip arrives will have fairly large consequences on p-type so well just need to monitor and update as a single solution emerges. Regardless of the timing, a cold front will swing through which leads to colder temps on Wednesday. We`ll be looking at northwest flow aloft with westerly flow at the surface, so we should see mainly orographic snow showers along with some lake effect snow developing. The temps should be in the upper 20s to around 30 on Wednesday falling to the single digits to low teens overnight. Based on the current guidance and trends, Thursday should be fairly quiet as high pressure sits to our south. While we wont see much in the way of precip, we`ll still be fairly cloudy as moisture rides along the northern edge of that high pressure system. Highs will be in the 20s with lows Thursday night slightly warmer than Wednesday in the upper teens to low 20s.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will largely continue through the period. MVFR possible for KSLK and KMSS aft 18z. Clear skies through midnight will give way to increasing mid/high clouds from the west/southwest with a gradual lowering aft 12z to 040-080 by 18z. Snow showers in the vicinity of Lake Ontario and St.Lawrence valley during Friday, gradually shifting into Adirondacks after 00z Sat. WNW winds 5-8 kts this evening, becoming light and variable by midnight then eventually SSW around 5 kts by 12z. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Neiles

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