Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 060254 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 954 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
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AS OF 950 PM EST FRIDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT 0230Z. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BRIEFLY CRESTS OVER THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WEST- SOUTHWEST. THE WSW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE AND LAKE GENERATED STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT BACK INTO NRN NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEGINNING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONGOING PERIOD OF CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH JUST A DUSTING TO MAYBE 2 INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS MILD ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR YOUR SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 350 PM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOST NORTHERN ZONES. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BTV4 AND BTV12 BOTH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FADING AWAY QUICKLY. DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEVER MAKES IT QUITE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE NOT TOO COLD OF A DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SET UP FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WE ARE A BIT STUCK BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS WEAK AND NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO HELP WITH FORCING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL TROF BASE. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF THE WEEK A COLD TROF DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING US SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COASTAL STORM THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA AND NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. NORTHERN NY TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY KSLK TRENDING MVFR CIGS WITH SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT HANDLED WITH VCSH. VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT VARIABLE WIND CHANGING TO SOUTH BY MORNING AND SOME GUSTS KMSS/KBTV. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-18Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MON ONWARD...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...RJS/HANSON

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