Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231347 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 947 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heavy and wet snow, along with a wintry mix across southern portions of Vermont, will continue through much of the day before exiting from west to east. Behind the storm, another cold day is expected tomorrow but with tranquil weather. Dry and sunny conditions are expected to begin next week, followed by rising chances for precipitation by midweek. Temperatures will moderate through midweek then trend cooler late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 947 AM EDT Saturday...Based on current stronger fgen band of heavy snow across south central VT and latest reports, boosted overall snow totals down in Rutland/Windsor/Orange Counties up a bit. Also tightened the snowfall gradient in our far northern counties to show slightly less snowfall due to somewhat drier air in lower levels and a fairly narrow dendritic snow growth zone of only a few thousand feet way up around 600 mb. This is why flakes have been on the finer/smaller side in these areas. Have a great day! Previous Discussion... Overall our winter storm is on track as a plume of deep atmospheric moisture in excess of 200% of normal per satellite estimates continues to be funneled northward in advance of an area of low pressure rounding the base of an upper level trough in the southeastern US. Bands of snow will persist near and north of a low level thermal gradient that will be quasi- stationary over southern New England. So far the greatest snowfall has likely been across south central Vermont. Over time, the most intense 850 frontogenesis that is focus heavier precipitation rates will gradually shift northward, providing all of Vermont and far northeastern New York periods of snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour causing very difficult travel conditions today. That being said, the latest data did suggest perhaps a slight decrease in expected snowfall compared to the previous forecast in many areas, especially in western portions of the region, where the threat of heavy snow was already low. A zone of a more moderate snowfall/low end warning amounts still is expected in northwestern Adirondacks. Meanwhile, the snowfall should begin winding down as early as noon in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley after seeing only a few inches of snow. We have been watching the northward advancing mixed precipitation line make it into southern Vermont early this morning but has since retreated somewhat into far southwestern Vermont. Overall, the northward edge of this line still looks most likely to make it into much of Windsor and Rutland counties. Chances of the wintry mix is rather low and coverage limited farther north. So no significant changes were made from the previous forecast as to sleet and freezing rain. These areas also are most likely to see heavy and wet snow, so the risk of scattered to numerous power outages remains. Temperatures in some valley locations such as Danby and Pawlet should support a period of plain rain as well this afternoon before low level flow switches from southeasterly to northwesterly by this evening. That change will coincide with the coastal storm approaching Long Island, and it should quickly progress northeastward arriving in the Gulf of Maine by around 11 PM. After that time, the eastern flank of heavy snowfall should be departing our region. Post storm conditions look rather tranquil due to the storm pulling away rather than wrapping up nearby. As such, only a brief period of breezy conditions Saturday night will then give way to light winds on Sunday. Some flurries are possible if a shallow cloud layer remains in place given favorably cold temperatures. After temperatures peak in the upper 20s to low 30s today and slip back into the teens tonight, high temperatures will not be much different for Sunday. However, at least some sunshine will provide a nice scene atop our fresh snowpack.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...1040MB high pres wl be located just north of Maine by 12z Monday, with ridge axis toward the NEK. The combination of fresh snow pack and light winds, should result in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Have cut NBM by 5 to 7 degrees with lows ranging from single digits SLK/NEK to mid teens SLV/CPV. Mid/upper lvl ridge continues to build, while omega type block is progged btwn trof over the High Plains, ridge Ohio Valley into the NE CONUS and another closed trof off the East Coast. This wl result in additional period of dry wx on Monday into Monday night, with temps warming to near normal values by Monday. Progged 925mb temps btwn -2C and +1C should support highs in the mid 30s summits to mid 40s valleys with mostly sunny skies. Should be another beautiful day to enjoy the outdoors and all the fresh snow. Monday night is quiet with a sharp west to east temp gradient anticipated, based on winds and progged 925mb temps. Lows ranging from mid teens east of the Greens to near 30F SLV. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...A highly amplified pattern continues for mid to late week with growing spread amongst the guidance as to timing of the ridge breaking down. Have cutback pops for Weds into the chc range as ridge/dry air looks to hold firm, while best s/w energy passes to our north. Have highest chc pops acrs our western fa on Weds, with additional chc pops on Thurs into Friday, as moisture expands along the eastern seaboard. Pattern evolution and placement of sfc features are challenging in such an amplified pattern with limited run to run continuity noted. Have stayed on the conservative side of guidance for temps Tues thru Friday, but with progged 925mb temps btwn 3-5C, would not be surprised to see temps well into 50s for mid week, especially valleys. As sfc frnt pushes eastward a general cooling trend develops for Thurs into Friday with increasing chcs for precip, with some wet snow possible in the mtns. Have temps cooling back into the 30s and 40s by late week with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for now. We will fine tune fcst as spread in guidance decreases over the next 2 to 3 days. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Steady snow, with visibilities ranging from 1/2SM to 1SM, is prevailing areawide. This should continue through at least 18Z, and through 00Z in most if not all sites from the Champlain Valley eastward before snow exits to the east. In heaviest snow, which should generally shift northward through the day, ceilings will tend to lower into the 500 to 1000 foot range, with otherwise mainly MVFR ceilings expected. Aside from 11 to 15 knot northeast winds at KMSS, winds should be 10 knots or less. Southerly winds at RUT should turn northwesterly by 22Z, with all sites seeing northwesterly winds after 00Z 7 to 12 knots and gradually diminishing towards 12Z. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001>011- 016>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ026-027-087. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028>031. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...JMG/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Kutikoff

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