Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281118 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 718 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... As a weak cold front slowly crosses the region, scattered to numerous rain showers will continue over portions of eastern and southern Vermont today, and taper off tonight. Dry weather is expected for Friday along with gusty northwesterly winds. Tranquil conditions follow for the weekend into early next week, with rain and snow showers likely Tuesday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 718 AM EDT Thursday...Minor updated made to the forecast for the next few hours, mainly to lower PoPs through mid-morning as steady rain has shifted east of the Connecticut River. Upstream though, another wave of precipitation is on track to move back into south and eastern Vermont by noon, which the previous forecast has covered. Areas of fog will likely continue across eastern Vermont as well until rain arrives reducing visibility below 1 mile in some areas. Previous Discussion...Vertically stacked low pressure over central Ontario moving ever so slowly northeast continues to also every so slowly push a weak cold front through the region this morning. Over the past 12 hours the front has moved from the Ottawa Valley to its current location over the Adirondacks, and over the next 12 hours it will finally shift east of the Connecticut River Valley. Current radar imagery shows showers are once again blossoming across southeastern Vermont, and precipitation is expected to continue to shift northeastward through portions of eastern Vermont through the day before finally tapering off this evening towards midnight. Additional QPF is expected to range from a tenth to a third of an inch, and when combined with the 0.1-.3" that fell yesterday across the same area, we should see rises begin today across area waterways. Flooding is still not currently expected on any mainstem rivers, but some southern rivers such as Otter Creek may approach bankfull. For tonight, showers taper off by midnight with guidance coming into consensus that the aforementioned front will be east of the region keeping a coastal low and associated precip away. Colder temps filter back into the region behind the front, though min temps will still be slightly warmer than normal in the mid 20s west to low 30s east. Finally for Friday, dry conditions are expected, along with increasing breaks of sun from west to east through the day, but winds are expected to increase markedly from late-morning through the remainder of the day as a modest 25-45kt 925-850mb jet develops over the region, and forecast soundings show steepening low level lapse rates and good mixing. The potential exists for gusts of 30-40 mph across the region. Highs Friday will be seasonal in the 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 413 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night will be mainly dry, though will have some clouds associated with shortwave energy passing overhead. Have held onto slight chance for snow showers in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Greens. Temperatures will cool into the 20s overnight with some 30 degree readings in the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys. Winds will remain brisk out of the northwest. Even drier weather is expected for Saturday as highs will reach the 40s areawide with upper level ridging and weak surfacing ridging building into our forecast area. Will also have increasing sunshine as some drier air moves into the area. Winds will remain out of the northwest but not as strong as Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 413 AM EDT Thursday...Chance for light rain or snow showers will return for Saturday night into Sunday as a weak area of shortwave energy clips by to the north. Sunday night through Monday night will be quiet overall with seasonable temperatures. The rest of the week`s weather will be dominated by a large scale low pressure system moving from the Great Lakes region eastward. Still a lot of uncertainty associated with this system as far as the track of the low and whether or not a secondary low forms off the New England coast. This all will have an impact on what type of precipitation we will be seeing and also how much. Based on 00z model guidance, it looks like precipitation will start by Tuesday afternoon with warm air advection across our area. Precipitation will continue through at least Thursday as low very slowly makes it`s way across New England. Too early to mention mixed precipitation, but we`ll have to monitor for that potential as we get closer to the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 12Z Friday...Variable conditions will be seen across the region through mid-morning with LIFR fog and stratus persisting at KEFK/KMPV/KRUT, while MVFR continues at KSLK, and VFR at KBTV/KPBG/KMSS. Conditions slowly improve through the day with LIFR lifting to IFR/MVFR at KEFK/KMPV/KRUT and MVFR lifting to VFR by late afternoon at KSLK. Winds will be light and variable through mid-morning, turning WSW this afternoon and increasing to 4-8kts. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Lahiff

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