Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 251121 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 721 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND HIGHER SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 721 AM EDT SATURDAY...MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND RAP 850 MB RH PROGS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NY WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN HOWEVER. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS DEFAULT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS QUICKLY THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THUS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 925 MB THERMAL PROFILES AT 18 UTC AVERAGE 7 TO 10C OR SO...SO ADDING THE TYPICAL 7-8C FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AUTUMNAL (OR VERNAL) SEASONAL PERIOD SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO 60 ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING RATHER VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THUS RUNNING IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN VT. THREAT OF SHOWERS LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN VT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...BY TONIGHT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE REGION...ESP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH. AS FLOW TRENDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT LATER TONIGHT...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FT OR SO WITH PCPN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AT THE SUMMIT LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BELOW THE 2000 FT LEVEL. BEING OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...SYSTEM WILL HAVE ONLY MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HOWEVER SO NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING PARTICULARLY HEAVY. BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH CYCLONIC WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER TIME SUCH THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MTNS WHERE SOME LIGHT ADDL SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ABOVE 2500 FT OR SO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...OR GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. BY MONDAY STILL GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL SOLUTIONS IN SHOWING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGING TO BEGIN PUSHING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW. STILL SOME LINGERING/VRB CLOUDS...ESP NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE A BRIEF SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF THE DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS A BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...OR WITHIN 2 DEG OF LATE OCTOBER SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 403 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL IDEA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 565DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +11C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT INTENSIFIES AND A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY WITH ECMWF STILL A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BELIEVE THE ECMWF IS ON THE RIGHT PATH SO HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTIONS OFFERING A FROPA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY DRY WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE`LL RETURN TO MORE FALL- LIKE TEMPS WITH THE 540DM THICKNESS LINE WELL SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP PROBS FOR HALLOWEEN AT THIS TIME AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE SAID TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE TRENDED DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER SOME FEW-SCT CIRRUS WITH IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK THROUGH 11-12Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM...MVFR CIGS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AFTER 14Z...BUT BREAK UP COMING INTO VERMONT WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. A SHORT 3-HR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA...BUT EXPECT VSBY TO REMAIN VFR MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR. CIGS WILL LOWER AREA-WIDE TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY - 12Z MONDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND ROUND OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT ON NORTHWEST FLOW. 12Z MONDAY - 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF

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