Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200730 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THE FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS VERMONT. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 116 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THOSE TWO FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS OFFERED BY MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THESE FEATURES ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE WARM FRONT TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HRS WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PWS OF 1-1.5"...BUT THAT AIR MASS WILL PRIMARILY ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN NY TAKE ITS TIME TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO VT. SOURCES OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ARE MODEST /PRIMARILY FROM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION/...BUT SURFACE-BASED CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY. I`VE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FURTHER INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ENTERING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VT. SIMILAR AREAL COVERAGE TO POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH GENERAL DECREASING TREND INTO THE EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH AMOUNTS .5"-.75" WITH AMOUNTS IN VT A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NY /DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER/ TO THE LOWER/MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER-MID 60S. FOR THURSDAY EXPECTING HIGHS TO RUN IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BUILDING HGHT RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA WL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS INTO OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C. THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACRS OUR REGION WITH THIS COOLER MARITIME AIR WL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON EASTERN VT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW. SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT. THIS WL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB...WITH BEST THERMAL RIDGE AND WARMEST LLVL TEMPS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS VERY WARM AIR MASS...HAS DIFFICULTIES ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA...GIVEN PLACEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AND NW FLW ALOFT...BUT SHOULD BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WL WARM BTWN 12-14C BY NEXT WEDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L80S WARMER VALLEYS. WL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY AS BEST ULVL SUPPORT AND MID LVL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CHCS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS NORTHERN NY. CRNT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRES ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH A SFC WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ATTM. THIS FEATURE HAS PRODUCE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACRS NNY. THIS FACTORS WL LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK...WL USE A TEMPO FOR IFR AT SLK BTWN 07-10Z. OTHERWISE...STILL THINKING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MPV BY 07Z THRU 12Z THIS MORNING IN FOG. FOG WL LIFT BY 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES TODAY. CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM SW TO NE TODAY ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ACRS THE DACKS BY 21Z TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS TWD 00Z THIS EVENING. LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT EAST AT MSS. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. FOG/BR WL BE LIMITED BY THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRES ACRS NORTHERN MAINE WL BUILD INTO OUR TAF SITES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WL RESULT IN FOG/BR AT SLK/MPV BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNINGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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