Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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844 FXUS61 KBTV 110914 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 414 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB- 850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1 POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...NEILES

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