Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300735 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 335 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North Country. Locally heavy downpours remain possible. Expect additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler high temperatures. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower humidity levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 117 AM EDT Monday...Moist plume (precipitable water values of 1.5" to 1.6") will remain over the North Country overnight in advance of sfc cold front moving ewd across Southeastern Ontario and Lake Erie at 02Z. Instability has waned across the region, a combination of loss of daytime heating and broad region of shower and thunderstorm activity that has affected the region this afternoon and evening, and associated rain cooled low-level air now in place. We did see a few areas of damaging winds earlier today around St. Albans/Sheldon VT and also Essex County NY near Lake Champlain with separate thunderstorms. Also, radar estimated rainfall in excess of 4" indicated along the nrn slopes of the Adirondacks (central Franklin County NY) with training thunderstorm activity mid-late aftn. This occurred largely in a wilderness area, with no reports of flooding thus far. Please refer to our local storm reports for specific details on storm damage and any future flooding reports that we may acquire. 500mb ridge continues to break down overnight in response to shortwave trough crossing the Eastern Great Lakes. Moderately high PW values, mid-level height falls, and increasingly cyclonic flow will maintain chances for shower activity overnight, though overall coverage of rainfall should decrease. An additional 0.2-0.3" rainfall is possible through the remainder of the overnight period. Will see low temperatures mainly in the low to mid 60s, with cooler temps across Eastern VT with some marine modified air working into Eastern VT on light E-SE flow (lows in the Upper 50s in this region). Given today`s rainfall, will see patchy fog overnight, especially in the valleys within the nrn Adirondack region where rainfall was locally heaviest. For Memorial Day, anticipate another day of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as today so instability will be limited however through will be enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Best threat central into s-central VT. Expected max temps tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts to push through the North Country. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period with little airmass change expected. Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts. Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the degree to which it digs south and east over time and what interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 55 range.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm BR at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period. Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday. Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal/Neiles SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Banacos/Neiles

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