Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051408 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1008 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. TODAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 1008 AM EDT THURSDAY...ASIDE FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, MANY AREAS REMAIN UNDER A STUBBORN OVC. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS BUILDING A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD IN THE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. AGAIN, AGREE THAT TEMPS WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANTLY ON DEGREE OF SUNSHINE TODAY. I REALLY THINK AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREENS ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY SUN AT ALL TODAY AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STAY LOCKED IN ON THE NORTHEAST WINDS. MORE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OR EVEN SOME BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS, WHILE WEAK/RELATIVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MORE CLEAR. THESE SKY TRENDS ALREADY WELL-DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SO DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES THERE. I DID START TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TODAY USING A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED FIELDS TO THE CURRENT, WHICH IN TURN LOWERS HIGHS FOR EASTERN VT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, MID/UPPER 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND THE LOW/MID 60S ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WELL, WE`VE GOT ONE MORE DAY TO GET THROUGH BEFORE WE SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUN, I PROMISE! TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH AND WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL, BUT NOT BY MUCH. LIKE YESTERDAY, WE`LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST, WITH A MID-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME CLEARING LATE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES ONCE AGAIN SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR AT 500M COMING FROM WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS FAR EAST AS NEW BRUNSWICK TO BE EXACT, WHERE HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. FORECAST 925MB TEMPS AROUND +8-10C WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S IF WE HAD SUN, BUT SINCE WE WON`T I THINK WE`LL TOP OUT JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE LOW/MID 50S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 50S VALLEYS. FOR TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WE`LL SEE SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO FOR MOST OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 40S. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE FROM THE DACKS NORTHWESTWARD WHERE MORE CLEARING OCCURS, WITH TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC PIVOTS, THEN SHEARS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOME DISPARITY REMAINS AMONG THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FEEL ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER FEATURE. BY SATURDAY A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT AGAIN DYNAMICS AREN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO 20-40 POPS LOOK IN ORDER WITH LARGE STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME INDICATION THAT LOWER END MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AS WELL, WITH LATEST SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PROGS IN THE 5-10 PCT RANGE. GIVEN THESE VALUES ARE QUITE LOW WILL OPT TO OMIT ANY REFERENCE TO THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE SIGNAL REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS TOMORROW WE MAY CONSIDER INCLUDING THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 70 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FILTERED SUN EXIST. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOST ACTIVE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN OCCURS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SHARPLY SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THUS A CONTINUATION OF HIGH POPS (60-70 PCT) WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER, SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY OF MIDWEST ORIGIN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER 18-21Z. STILL HAVE SOME SUNRISE SURPRISE IFR FLOATING AROUND KSLK AND KBTV, BUT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. MVFR WILL THEN GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z, TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS RETURNING TO LIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT: MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS. 00Z SAT - 06Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. 06Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR. 06Z MON - 00Z TUE: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...LAHIFF

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