Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180556 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 156 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH. FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY. ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK. OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY. HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO MUCH. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK. 12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH G25 KTS MIDDAY. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...SISSON

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