Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290847 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 447 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER NAM MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. BTV 4KM AND ECMWF SHOWING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. MODELS A BIT SLOW IN BRINGING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO VERMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT 18Z SATURDAY IS ONLY 20-30 KNOTS...AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 11000 FEET...SO ANY HAIL THAT DEVELOPS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM EDT FRIDAY...A STRONG 1039MB AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES EXPECT A LARGE SWING FROM COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTN. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND NEK ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST MEX FOR SLK SHOWING A 30F. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH NORTH WINDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. GFS KEEPS OUR CWA DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WAY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPS. THINKING THE ECMWF IS A BIT AGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES...GIVEN POSITION OF HIGH...SO WILL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO A DAY...AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M/U 70S MTNS TO L 80S WARMER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...1028MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG/BR TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RECENTLY...LIKE SLK. HAVE MENTION VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND VIS AROUND 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FOG AT MPV...WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING...BUT GIVEN DRYING ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR...THINKING FOG/BR WILL DEVELOP BTWN 07-08Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MSS WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR IN FOG/BR AT PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 07-11Z. OTHERWISE...FOG/BR WILL LIFT BTWN 11Z-13Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV BTWN 07-11Z SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTN...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTN. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO LOWER VIS BTWN 1-3SM IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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AS OF 447 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (1V4) IS NOT CURRENTLY REPORTING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE 1V4 ASOS COMMUNICATIONS LINE WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER MARINE... EQUIPMENT...WGH

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