Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 010457 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1257 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1252 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES AND ALSO IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...RISING 700-500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY 10-12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER. SYNOPTICALLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR MASS/850MB TEMPS +17C TO +19C WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS DESPITE CLEAR CONDITIONS. WILL SEE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM SWRN QUEBEC TOWARD OUR REGION. GIVEN 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C...DEWPOINTS 60-65F...AND SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AS FRONTAL FORCING/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUR INTL BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE INDICATED 20-30 POPS WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SEWD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY). DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS 60-65F RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (OR ABOUT 10DEG ABOVE NORMAL). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 153 PM EDT MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROF FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTER THAT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS...MANY MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE SCANS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR SLK/MPV. AT THE TWO CLIMO FAVOURED FOG SITES IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED AND I TRIED TO MODEL TIMING BASED ON LAST NIGHT WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE SINCE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUED LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT AND GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM. OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z TUE-SAT...MAINLY VFR. PERIODS EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR MAINLY AT KMPV AND KSLK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...RJS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...DEAL/NEILES

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