Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271126 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 626 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR. 00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...RJS

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