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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221903
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather will continue through Tuesday afternoon before rain
moves back into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a
strong cold front. Temperatures will drop throughout the day on
Wednesday with the chance for  snow on Wednesday as precipitation
tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given a
period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. Dry weather
returns late this week into the weekend before the next round of
rain late this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 302 PM EDT Monday...It remains deceptively cool this afternoon
but at least temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s under sunny
skies. Gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph will continue through the
daylight hours with winds diminishing rapidly after sunset. During
the overnight period, winds will begin to switch to the
south/southwest and will become increasingly strong and gusty as we
head into the daylight hours on Tuesday. Noticeably warmer
temperatures are expected Tuesday with highs in the 60s across the
North Country. Winds will also be noticeably stronger on Tuesday as
we see stronger winds move in aloft. Deep afternoon mixing up to
8000 ft is expected given efficient diurnal heating which will allow
wind gusts up to 35 mph to materialize. The strongest winds are
expected from the Champlain Valley westward but winds will be gusty
across the entire region. Rain chances will return to the forecast
Tuesday night as a strong cold front approaches the region from the
west. By daybreak on Wednesday, rain will most likely overspread the
entire region leading to a wet morning commute.

Increased fire weather concerns will exist on Tuesday. Please see
the fire weather discussion below for more details.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Very changeable weather expected on
Wednesday as a strong cold front quickly crosses the region from
northwest to southeast. Widespread rain will be ongoing out ahead of
this boundary, which should lie poised very near or just west of the
St Lawrence Valley Wednesday morning. The airmass behind the front
is much cooler, and as temperatures plummet some 5-10 degrees or
more as the front moves through, rain will mix with and change over
to snow. However, precipitation will also rapidly be coming to an
end during this transition as the incoming airmass will also be much
drier, as evidenced by PWATS dropping to around 0.10 inch by
Wednesday evening. So the period for snow will be short lived, and
given how warm the ground will be, accumulations will be minimal,
generally restricted to above 1000 ft. Highs will be early in the
day for most locations, though the St Lawrence Valley may rebound
back into the 40s in the afternoon under increasing sunshine. Winds
will turn to the northwest as the front moves through, and with
steep low-level lapse rates, they`ll remain gusty to 30-35 mph, with
locally higher gusts possible.

Precipitation comes to an end by sunset Wednesday night and skies
will clear as high pressure settles over the region. Winds will
abate overnight as well, and given the cold, dry airmass,
radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop through the 20s,
and even teens, by Thursday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 302 PM EDT Monday...The end of the work week will feature
another round of dry conditions with high pressure slowly crossing
the region. Thursday will be cool with highs only the mid 40s to mid
50s, though there will be abundant sunshine and light winds. The
ridge shifts east on Friday, setting up south/southwest flow and a
warmer, though continued sunny and dry, day. Precipitation chances
increase for the weekend and heading into early next week as upper
shortwaves rotate up and around the top of the ridge. Still some
model differences in which of these disturbances is able to break
down the ridge and/or how far south precipitation associated with
each one is able to intrude into the dry air. Have stayed with NBM
PoPs for now, which gives 30-60% chances much of the latter part of
this period, with highest chances north. One thing that is a little
more certain - after a cool day on Thursday, we`ll see a warming
trend as the ridge axis sets up to our east. Current indications are
highs will be well into the 60s by early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions with just a few passing
high clouds are expected through the forecast period. Gusty
northwest winds up to 25 knots are expected through the daylight
hours with winds diminishing to less than 10 knots and shifting
to the south overnight. Winds will become gusty from the south
quickly after sunrise on Tuesday with gusts up to 30 knots
possible by mid to late afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 302 PM EDT Monday...Dry weather is expected to continue
across the region through Tuesday afternoon with strong high
pressure situated across the region. We have seen RH values dip
into the upper teens to mid 20s this afternoon with winds
gusting as high as 25 mph at times. For tomorrow, the RH values
are expected to be slightly higher during the afternoon hours
with RH values ranging from 24% to 32% but winds will be gusting
as high as 35 mph from the south. Based on our local red flag
criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph
winds and RH below 30%) for much of the afternoon tomorrow.
However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the
issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as
leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush
fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged for the
remainder of today or tomorrow. In addition, the state of New
York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
FIRE WEATHER...Clay