Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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074 FXUS61 KBTV 201727 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front is lifting across the region currently bringing with it above freezing temperatures and breezy southwest winds. Localized wind gusts to 30 mph are expected over the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys as well as across the international border across New York. This front shift back south as a cold front with additional clouds and cooler temperatures later Saturday evening. A few mountains snow showers with a light accumulation is possible. Late Monday into Tuesday brings the next significant chance of precipitation in the form of a wintry mix. While not as pronounced as last week`s system, with ice jams in place close monitoring will be needed for the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Saturday...Weak warm front sits across the international border and should continue to remain there before waving back south later on tonight. Hi-Res models continue to show strong southwest low level jet of 50-65 knots at 850mb. This will bring gusty winds initially across the St Lawrence Valley across the early morning hours with localized gusts of 30 to 35 mph eventually shifting over Northern NY near the international border and the Champlain Valley and parts of southern Vt later this morning before jet shifts east out of the CWA. Models also still show a rather complex thermal profile across the region. Warm air is moving into the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys a bit of a faster pace than expected, so even with bumping high temperatures up a bit from the previous forecast, some locations could still see a bit higher, especially is cloud cover decreases temporarily across some of the valley locations this afternoon. A few flurries are possible over the dacks and northern greens this afternoon, but overall moisture is minimal at best, so accumulation will be very light. Look for high temps to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with a few locations pushing mid 40s. Saturday night will be rather quiet and mild as the weak cold front starts to wave back south. Overnight lows will be in the 20s with some locations near the international border seeing temps in the teens. Sunday continues the quiet weather with cooler but still above seasonal normal temps with increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system and a chance for a shower or two in the higher elevations. Look for highs in the lower to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Saturday...Westerly flow aloft will prevail Sunday night into most of Monday. Perhaps there will be a little bit of light snow up along the Canadian border Sunday night...but most of the area will remain dry. Large high over eastern Canada will allow for some colder air to move into parts of the region on Monday...especially near the Canadian border. Highs on Monday will generally be in the 30s...with upper 20s near the Canadian border. Warm front will move into the region from the southwest late in the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of northern New York. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM EST Saturday...Best potential for mixed precipitation/icing will occur Monday night into Tuesday. At this time thermal profile supports the idea of mixed precipitation for northern New York with mainly snow over Vermont through the first of the night before low level warming takes over across northern New York and most of Vermont. The Northeast Kingdom of Vermont will be the last to changeover and thus some icing may also be concentrated in this area. This area and the Saint Lawrence Valley/western portions of the northern Adirondacks should see at least a tenth of an inch of ice. Would not be surprised for a number of areas in Vermont to pick up an inch of two of snow before a change to mixed precipitation and/or rain. Most areas will ultimately see rain on Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Precipitation probabilities Monday night and Tuesday should essentially be categorical...but there may be a brief break in the precipitation late Monday night as area gets in the warm sector. Shortwave trough and cold front exit the region Tuesday night...but we still stay in the main upper trough. Colder air moves in so precipitation will essentially be snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as highs will only be in the 20s to lower 30s. Looks like we trend toward a northwest flow aloft pattern for Thursday and Friday. Should be relatively dry...but below normal temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 18Z Sunday...BKN/OVC mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with cigs mainly from 035-050 AGL. Exception at KSLK terminal where MVFR cigs in the 018-025 AGL range will prevail. KRUT terminal will see the BKN/OVC cigs arrive after 21Z with mainly SKC until then. Weak cold front to drop into the region in the 06-10Z time frame tonight with little fanfare as modestly gusty southwest winds to 20 kts abate by this evening and trend light northerly or near calm by 12Z Sunday. Widely scattered light shsn/flurries possible here and there along the frontal boundary tonight, but paucity of coverage warrants no mention in the terminal forecasts at this time. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite PL, Definite RA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...JMG

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