Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 222001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST LOOK GD ATTM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY... COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY 20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...JN SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER

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