Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 051744 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 144 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 144 PM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT 00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN 15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z- 09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND 1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY. AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT 050-060 WILL DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES UPSTREAM CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AT HIGHER LEVELS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE`LL CALL THIS SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND FEW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. VARIABLE WESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY AT KPBG LEADING TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG FROM 04-12Z. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS 16-18Z FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THOUGH REMAIN BELOW 10KTS. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX. 12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. 00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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