Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281148 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 748 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD DRY AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TO START THE WORK WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 737 AM EDT SATURDAY... BASED ON CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ITS A TRICKY FORECAST TO ASSESS HOW FAR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BACK FILL THIS MORNING AS WE ARE UNDER MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BUT THERE IS GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE FAIRLY STRONG FGEN BAND ORIENTED ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, I DO FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL FILL IN OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT OVER WINDSOR COUNTY. HOWEVER I DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 2" INCHES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OTHER THAN THE INCREASE OF POPS AND WEATHER TEMPS/SKY/WINDS AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ARE RIGHT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS SO NO CHANGES THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THEY RUN INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IT WILL BRING COLD DRY AIR UNDER NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS TODAY WE WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. OLD MAN WINTER SEEMS TO WANT TO GIVE US ONE LAST TASTE OF THE COLD BEFORE FINALLY RELEASING US TO SPRING. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE, CHAMPLAIN, AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS AND WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE HIGHER SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND BE GONE LATE SATURDAY EARLY SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP BRINGING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT BEFORE TOMORROW THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TEENS BEFORE WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MOVING TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO VERMONT BY EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE EXPECT THE TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING OF THE PRECIP IN VALLEYS BY 15-18Z BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY 00Z IN THE EVENING. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTH WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERCAST SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 359 AM EDT SATURDAY... PROGRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY OBSERVED BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING EWD ACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY DRIVE SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/NRN GREEN MTNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE CARRIED 30-50 POPS ACROSS THE HIR TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THE END OF MARCH...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DEVELOPING MID- LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD. PROSPECTS FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S ON TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD SEE A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF STRONG P-GRADIENT. WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO +3 TO +5C ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...AND MID-UPR 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH PROSPECTS FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STILL REACH THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT MAY SEE THAT HAPPEN BY LATE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CAA LATER IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT RUT AND MPV. BEST CHANCE OF -SHSN APPEARS TO BE AT KRUT 15-02Z...WHERE WE/VE CARRIED VCSH. ELSEWHERE...MVFR/VFR OVC CONDITIONS...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GENERALLY SKC OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH AROUND 10-12 KTS THROUGH 14Z...THEN GUSTING 16-20KTS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS 06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SLK/MPV)...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEAL NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS

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