Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210539 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure area and a warm front will approach the North Country overnight and will bring moderate rain to the region, mainly during the pre-dawn hours. Rain will continue into Friday, before tapering off to showers Friday afternoon and Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region Sunday and will remain over the North Country through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1123 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast remains on track. Broad region of 850-700mb warm advection across sern Ontario into central NY will shift newd into nrn NY and VT during the remainder of the overnight hrs...in advance of low pressure across nrn lower Michigan. It appears convective instability driving tstm activity across s-central NY and PA will remain south of our region. However, strong synoptic ascent will move across the North Country between 06-09Z, bringing steady moderate rainfall to most locations for several hrs. Only minor adjustments to total QPF...generally 0.5-0.75" expected, but orographic enhancement is possible on S-SW facing slopes, with rainfall near 1" possible srn Greens and portions of the Adirondacks high peaks. Winds are light and variable late this evening. However, will see some gusty S-SE winds around daybreak with increasing p-gradient, with gusts 20-30 mph once the steady rain ends, and gusts locally to 30-40 mph along the immediate wrn slopes of the Green Mtns with downslope effects. Rain will continue into Friday morning before tapering off to showers Friday afternoon as best synoptic forcing shifts to our east. A slight chance of showers will continue into Friday night. Expecting low temperatures to be mainly in the 40s overnight. High on Friday from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Friday night from the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Weakening complex surface low pressure system will affect the North Country for the first half of the weekend. Surface low pressure to the north in Quebec will weaken and allow coastal low to become primary surface low. Meanwhile, 500mb trough will move across the region through Sunday morning. Expect low level moisture in north to northwest flow to keep slight chance of showers and low clouds over the area til building ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft brings drier air early Sunday. Late Sunday into Sunday night, weakening front extending for surface low east of Hudsons Bay will bring more clouds and only a slight chance of showers to the international border. Saturday max temps limited to the 40s to low 50s under the overcast skies. Saturday night temperatures generally in the 30s as skies begin to slowly clear. Temperatures expected to be warmer Sunday with increasing sunshine throughout the day and maxes in the 50s to around 60. Sunday night temperatures generally in the 30s again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Beginning of the work week looks to be quiet as high pressure is over the region through Monday night. The high slides east, putting the North Country in southerly flow on Tuesday beginning an influx of warmer air. Late Tuesday into Tuesday night, the North Country will be sandwiched between 2 low pressure systems - one to the north and one to the south. Southerly low becomes coastal Tuesday night and moves northward, attempting to bring some showers to eastern VT on Wednesday. GFS keeps associated energy aloft further off the coast and is also weaker, limiting the impact on the North Country. The northerly low looks to have a warm front across Quebec Wednesday and closed surface low over the Great Lakes region. This low may bring some showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Still some uncertainty with regard to these systems as 12Z ECMWF and GFS differ on evolution of said systems. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Saturday...Conditions will largely be a mix of VFR and MVFR over the next 24 hours with steady rainfall through about 12-15Z reducing vsby to MVFR and cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR. Thereafter scattered showers may briefly reduce vsby at times, but cigs should lift to VFR area-wide until later in the evening after 22-24Z when a gradual lowering back to MVFR is expected. Winds mainly SSE becoming increasingly gusty by dawn with gusts in the 20-30kt range especially at KBTV through the daylight hours, abating after sunset. Outlook... Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... As of 401 PM EDT Thursday...No major issues are expected on area rivers and streams but we should see some modest rises on Friday with basin average QPF in the 0.50-0.90" range (occurring late tonight into Friday AM). Concerns still exist on Lake Champlain with gusty southerly winds developing late tonight and Friday morning. This will likely cause rises across the northern portion of Lake Champlain, where Rouses Point could rise slightly above flood stage on Friday. This will be closely monitored over the next 12-24 hours. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...Banacos/WGH SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff HYDROLOGY...Team BTV

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