Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160615 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 215 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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After a few rain and snow showers this morning, dry conditions briefly return, followed by another round of valley rain and mountain snow tonight through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 137 AM EDT Saturday...Only minor adjustments needed as skies cloud over ahead of light rain showers. These showers will likely fizzle out over the next few hours as the trough passes. The positive side effect is that areas of fog are improving as mixing/clouds increase. Still a few slick spots, especially elevated untreated surfaces, are possible from denser freezing fog. Previous discussion...A lobe of shortwave energy passes through the region between 00-12z, bringing some light rain and snow showers to the area. Minimum temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s, so some areas will see rain showers mix with or change over to snow showers. Accumulations will be very light. Northwesterly flow pattern will favor the northwest facing slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens. We will have briefly quieter weather on Saturday as a weak surface high pressure ridge builds into the area. Clouds will remain in place over the area, but temperatures will still manage to reach the mid to upper 40s with southerly flow and some warm air advection. As we head into Saturday night, chance for precipitation will increase once again. A vertically stacked low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will track eastward tracking associated fronts across our area. Precipitation will spread across our forecast area overnight, and once again will be a mix of snow and rain showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EDT Friday...Sunday will begin with a vigorous upper shortwave shifting east. There may be a brief pause as the forcing associated with it exits the area, but by late morning into the afternoon, steepening lapse rates and diurnal heating will be favorable for the development of showers, especially with an upper low slowly progressing east just south of James Bay. With 100-200 J/kg of CAPE forecast and equilibrium levels beyond -20 C while the upper low is present, there should be several scattered showers across the region, and some capable of producing graupel or pea sized hail. The highest chances for precipitation will be along and just south of the international border. High temperatures are likely to top out in the 40s across the region with lower 50s in the Connecticut River Valley. Late Sunday evening, the loss of solar heating and some mid- level warming will quickly end convective activity. However, modest cold advection in west-southwest flow will keep some moisture streaming off Lake Ontario all while a trough axis embedded in the upper low is moving east of Montreal that will allow scattered showers to continue on western slopes of the Adirondacks and over the northern Greens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Friday...The extended period will be characterized by an amplified longwave pattern that gradually flattens with the development of more zonal flow. Conditions on Monday should again produce scattered convection in the day time, that transitions towards limited orographic precipitation on western slopes after sunset. Conditions are not likely to be as favorable on Sunday, but should still be enough on Monday for hit or miss showers with embedded graupel or pea sized hail. Drier, colder air will displace the warmer air across the area overnight. By Tuesday, coverage will continue to wane. However, there`s one last embedded shortwave rounding the longwave trough that could eke out some flurries despite PWATs falling towards 0.10- 0.20". Conditions will trend mainly dry next Wednesday and next Thursday as weak surface high pressure around 1020mb sets up for a couple days. Zonal flow will prevent any significant warm up. So just a gradual moderation from below normal temperatures on Tuesday back towards normal is expected for the mid to late week, which at this time of year is low 40s in the day, and 20s at night with a few teens in cooler pockets of the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom. Next Friday into the weekend, it appears possible that there could be a weak cyclone in the vicinity during the weekend that could bear watching, but long range details indicate wide spread right now. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Flight categories are varying widely from VFR to VLIFR with a mix of atmospheric conditions occurring. Areas that remain clear, like EFK, continue to experience dense fog, while other locations in the Champlain valley are improving as skies cloud over and mixing increases ahead of scattered showers. Behind these showers IFR/MVFR conds will continue through 12Z. By 15z, VFR conds become more widespread through around 00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR conds will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and higher elevation snow showers. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA, Scattered SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Neiles NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles/Storm SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Boyd

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