Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160615
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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After a few rain and snow showers this morning, dry conditions
briefly return, followed by another round of valley rain and
mountain snow tonight through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are
expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled
pattern that will feature periods of showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 137 AM EDT Saturday...Only minor adjustments needed as
skies cloud over ahead of light rain showers. These showers will
likely fizzle out over the next few hours as the trough passes.
The positive side effect is that areas of fog are improving as
mixing/clouds increase. Still a few slick spots, especially
elevated untreated surfaces, are possible from denser freezing
fog.
Previous discussion...A lobe of shortwave energy passes
through the region between 00-12z, bringing some light rain and
snow showers to the area. Minimum temperatures will dip into the
upper 20s to lower 30s, so some areas will see rain showers mix
with or change over to snow showers. Accumulations will be very
light. Northwesterly flow pattern will favor the northwest
facing slopes of the Adirondacks and northern Greens. We will
have briefly quieter weather on Saturday as a weak surface high
pressure ridge builds into the area. Clouds will remain in place
over the area, but temperatures will still manage to reach the
mid to upper 40s with southerly flow and some warm air
advection. As we head into Saturday night, chance for
precipitation will increase once again. A vertically stacked low
pressure system north of the Great Lakes will track eastward
tracking associated fronts across our area. Precipitation will
spread across our forecast area overnight, and once again will
be a mix of snow and rain showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Friday...Sunday will begin with a vigorous upper
shortwave shifting east. There may be a brief pause as the forcing
associated with it exits the area, but by late morning into the
afternoon, steepening lapse rates and diurnal heating will be
favorable for the development of showers, especially with an upper
low slowly progressing east just south of James Bay. With 100-200
J/kg of CAPE forecast and equilibrium levels beyond -20 C while the
upper low is present, there should be several scattered showers
across the region, and some capable of producing graupel or pea
sized hail. The highest chances for precipitation will be along and
just south of the international border. High temperatures are likely
to top out in the 40s across the region with lower 50s in the
Connecticut River Valley. Late Sunday evening, the loss of solar
heating and some mid- level warming will quickly end convective
activity. However, modest cold advection in west-southwest flow will
keep some moisture streaming off Lake Ontario all while a trough
axis embedded in the upper low is moving east of Montreal that will
allow scattered showers to continue on western slopes of the
Adirondacks and over the northern Greens.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Friday...The extended period will be characterized
by an amplified longwave pattern that gradually flattens with the
development of more zonal flow. Conditions on Monday should again
produce scattered convection in the day time, that transitions
towards limited orographic precipitation on western slopes after
sunset. Conditions are not likely to be as favorable on Sunday, but
should still be enough on Monday for hit or miss showers with
embedded graupel or pea sized hail. Drier, colder air will displace
the warmer air across the area overnight. By Tuesday, coverage will
continue to wane. However, there`s one last embedded shortwave
rounding the longwave trough that could eke out some flurries
despite PWATs falling towards 0.10- 0.20".
Conditions will trend mainly dry next Wednesday and next Thursday as
weak surface high pressure around 1020mb sets up for a couple days.
Zonal flow will prevent any significant warm up. So just a gradual
moderation from below normal temperatures on Tuesday back towards
normal is expected for the mid to late week, which at this time of
year is low 40s in the day, and 20s at night with a few teens in
cooler pockets of the Dacks and Northeast Kingdom. Next Friday into
the weekend, it appears possible that there could be a weak cyclone
in the vicinity during the weekend that could bear watching, but
long range details indicate wide spread right now.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 06Z Sunday...Flight categories are varying widely from
VFR to VLIFR with a mix of atmospheric conditions occurring.
Areas that remain clear, like EFK, continue to experience dense
fog, while other locations in the Champlain valley are improving
as skies cloud over and mixing increases ahead of scattered
showers. Behind these showers IFR/MVFR conds will continue
through 12Z. By 15z, VFR conds become more widespread through
around 00Z when the next precipitation comes through. MVFR/IFR
conds will spread overnight tonight with a mix of rain and
higher elevation snow showers.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered
SHRA, Scattered SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Slight chance SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles/Storm
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd