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243
FXUS61 KBTV 292320
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
720 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After light showers earlier today, more widespread precipitation is
expected across the region late tonight night into tomorrow with
showers likely, followed by another batch of afternoon showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder. Quieter weather is expected for the
latter half of the week, with a warming trend across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 709 PM EDT Monday...It`s been a pleasant afternoon and
evening thus far across the North Country as breaks in the cloud
cover have yielded some much welcomes sunshine. Cloud cover is
expected to quickly build back into the region after sunset as a
shortwave trough is driving a line of showers and thunderstorms
towards the North Country. These are expected to move into
northern New York during the pre-dawn hours with the possibility
of a few embedded rumbles of thunder.

Previous Discussion...After some light showers earlier in the
day, a brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening before
the next round of precipitation associated with a warm front enters
the region. Overnight low temperatures will be seasonably mild,
generally in the 40s, due to increased cloud cover associated with
the incoming precipitation.

Precipitable water values with this system will near or exceed an
inch, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a
plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Model
guidance is still a little uncertain in regards to where the axis of
the heaviest precipitation sets up, whether across northern New York
or a bit further north of the international border. Some rumbles of
thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it
looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings and the latest
CAM guidance. With some trees still dormant and lingering summit
level snow, there could be some areal flooding on low lying farm
fields, poor urban drainage basins, and across ditches. Precipitation
will continue into Tuesday night, although it will begin to
decrease in areal coverage.

A large temperature gradient is expected Tuesday afternoon, with
portions of the Northeast Kingdom struggling to warm above 50 while
portions of the St. Lawrence Valley warm into the mid 60s. Fairly
mild overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with lingering
precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near
50.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather is generally expected for
the latter half of the work week with lower precipitation chances,
but showers cannot be ruled out for Wed/Thu. Lingering low level
moisture combined with an increase in PWATs and a shortwave passing
north of the border through central Quebec may provide enough
support for a few showers Wednesday, and another stronger shortwave
following a similar path though perhaps a little farther south with
do the same Thursday afternoon. Best chances Wednesday will be
across central/southern zones, while the chance will exist more
across northern areas Thursday. Both days are by no means a wash
out, with expected QPF less than a tenth of an inch each day.
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the period with highs mid/upper
50s north to lower 60s south, but temperatures will trend much
warmer for the next few days with 925mb temps in the plus teens
Celsius supporting highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Friday will be
the pick of the week with an upper ridge directly overhead and no
precipitation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Looking into the upcoming weekend, surface
high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain in place
through much of Saturday which will keep precipitation chances low
and likely decay shortwave energy ejecting out from a strongly
occluded low moving north through the western Great Lakes. Better
chances for showers comes Saturday night onward as the ridge breaks
down and additional shortwave energy moving east from the Great
Lakes will interact with a modest stream of enhanced PWATs with
origins from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time is appears the highest
PWATs >1.5" will remain south of the region across the mid-Atlantic
states, so the risk for heavy rain remains low. Temps through the
period remain fairly close to normal with highs mainly in the 60s,
and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds are
expected through 09Z when rain is expected to move into northern
New York from the west. Conditions will deteriorate through the
morning thereafter with widespread MVFR ceilings becoming
entrenched across the region on Tuesday. On and off showers are
expected through the day Wednesday but should be light enough
that we don`t see visibilities drop below 6SM. There will be a
few embedded rumbles of thunder as well but these will be far
and few between. Wind will be light and variable through 09Z
before winds shift to the south in the 5 to 12 knot range.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay