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312
FXUS61 KBTV 300543
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers are spreading west to east with
about a 10% chance of a thunderstorm for portions of northern
New York. A cold front will bring numerous showers as it sweeps
through the North Country. Afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible. Quieter weather is expected for the latter half of
the week, with a warming trend across the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 129 AM EDT Tuesday...Main change was to adjust shower
chances based on latest radar imagery. Elevated instability is
apparent over the Mohawk Valley of New York with cellular
structures moving into portions of the Adirondacks. This
necessitated the addition of a 10% chance of a thunderstorm
overnight. CAMs generally keep convection out of Vermont, but it
wouldn`t be too surprising if a weak thunderstorm meandered
into western Rutland County around 7AM. Outside of more elevated
instability, the forecast is on track otherwise with isolated to
scattered showers spreading overnight.

Previous Discussion...After some light showers earlier in the
day, a brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening before
the next round of precipitation associated with a warm front enters
the region. Overnight low temperatures will be seasonably mild,
generally in the 40s, due to increased cloud cover associated with
the incoming precipitation.

Precipitable water values with this system will near or exceed an
inch, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a
plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Model
guidance is still a little uncertain in regards to where the axis of
the heaviest precipitation sets up, whether across northern New York
or a bit further north of the international border. Some rumbles of
thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it
looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings and the latest
CAM guidance. With some trees still dormant and lingering summit
level snow, there could be some areal flooding on low lying farm
fields, poor urban drainage basins, and across ditches. Precipitation
will continue into Tuesday night, although it will begin to
decrease in areal coverage.

A large temperature gradient is expected Tuesday afternoon, with
portions of the Northeast Kingdom struggling to warm above 50 while
portions of the St. Lawrence Valley warm into the mid 60s. Fairly
mild overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with lingering
precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near
50.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather is generally expected for
the latter half of the work week with lower precipitation chances,
but showers cannot be ruled out for Wed/Thu. Lingering low level
moisture combined with an increase in PWATs and a shortwave passing
north of the border through central Quebec may provide enough
support for a few showers Wednesday, and another stronger shortwave
following a similar path though perhaps a little farther south with
do the same Thursday afternoon. Best chances Wednesday will be
across central/southern zones, while the chance will exist more
across northern areas Thursday. Both days are by no means a wash
out, with expected QPF less than a tenth of an inch each day.
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the period with highs mid/upper
50s north to lower 60s south, but temperatures will trend much
warmer for the next few days with 925mb temps in the plus teens
Celsius supporting highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Friday will be
the pick of the week with an upper ridge directly overhead and no
precipitation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Looking into the upcoming weekend, surface
high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain in place
through much of Saturday which will keep precipitation chances low
and likely decay shortwave energy ejecting out from a strongly
occluded low moving north through the western Great Lakes. Better
chances for showers comes Saturday night onward as the ridge breaks
down and additional shortwave energy moving east from the Great
Lakes will interact with a modest stream of enhanced PWATs with
origins from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time is appears the highest
PWATs >1.5" will remain south of the region across the mid-Atlantic
states, so the risk for heavy rain remains low. Temps through the
period remain fairly close to normal with highs mainly in the 60s,
and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will degrade through the
forecast period. Through 12Z, shower chances are generally too
isolated to include at terminals, but its possible for a light
shower especially at MSS, PBG, SLK, EFK. Also carrying about a
10% chance of a thunderstorm overnight in the Adirondacks with
best chances over the Mohawk Valley of northern New York
tracking south of most terminals. Could see flashes in the sky
fromSLK, but location and timing place cells south of the
terminal. RUT may be the next terminal with a chance of a rumble
around 12Z if cells can hold together. Models track cells
through southern Essex County of New York and weaken them by the
time they reach RUT, but were underdone earlier, so still a
possibility. Otherwise, CIGs/VIS will be tied to showers and
generally lowering through the period, MVFR chances up by 12-18Z
ahead and in the cold front, IFR chances up 22-06Z just behind
the front.


Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Kremer
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Boyd