Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 160515 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1215 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDY AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEPS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING SKY COVER WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE...BUT INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL OVER THE GULF OF MAIN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 906 PM EST MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY JUST NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HOLDING UP WELL. HEARD OF A REPORT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TAKING PLACE IN SOME LOCALES THIS EVENING. THINK COVERAGE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FOLLOWS... IF YOU WERE JUST LOOKING AT PRESSURE LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT AND NOTHING ELSE YOU WOULD THINK IT WAS A GORGEOUS SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. BUT THEN YOU`D LOOK AT THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND REALIZE SURFACE CONDITIONS WERE QUITE THE OPPOSITE. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH SET UP LAST NIGHT UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WHICH BY OBSERVING HIGHER ELEVATION WEBCAMS ON WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN, NY AND MOUNT MANSFIELD, VT ONE CAN DEDUCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT 1500 FT THICK! DESPITE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS INVERSION ISN`T GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON...SO FOR TONIGHT HAVE KEPT IN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO SKY COVER WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 2500 AND LOWER...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE HIGHER SUMMITS ABOVE 3000 FEET. HAVEN`T OBSERVED ANY REPORTS OF DRIZZLE UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE IT OUT HAVEN`T ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WIND FIELDS BASICALLY NIL...TEMPS WON`T BE DROPPING MUCH EITHER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS ONLY FALLING ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 20S...THOUGH 30S ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE THE INVERSION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...INVERSION FINALLY LOOKS TO BREAK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE...BUT I SAY "BRIEF" BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AGAIN UNFORTUNATELY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. ATTENDING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VERY TRICKY AS WARM AIR WILL ALREADY BE PRESENT ALOFT ABOVE THE ERODING INVERSION...AND COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE RAIN/SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD...WHILE EAST OF THE GREENS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST VERMONT COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FILTER BACK IN SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW. OVERALL QPF IS RATHER LIGHT...SO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUT A GLAZE ON ALREADY STRESSED TREES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLICK ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE TEMPS WARM AREA-WIDE TO SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE THOUGH INTENSITY WILL LESSEN SUCH THAT WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...MAYBE JUST A TAD ABOVE. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN TRACKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 235 PM EST MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO A TRACE TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO. TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON FRIDAY ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THROUGH CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PREFERRED. TEMPS SLIGHTLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING. AS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. GFS INDICATES WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO...PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE CONTINUED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GONE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NO EXTREME TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAINTAINS SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE. COULD ALSO SEE INTERVALS OF MIST/FOG AT TIMES, WITH BTV HAVING A SHOT AT SEEING SOME MIST AS WELL UNDER A VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR TUESDAY: BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TO THE INVERSION, WITH SLIGHT LIFT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR. PRECIPITATION THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. TIMING AROUND 20-00Z (LATER AT MPV) WITH VCSH INDICATED AT PBG, RUT AND BTV. AT MSS AND SLK, EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CONDITIONS ARE INITIALLY UNSATURATED ALOFT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY (EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT MSS) UNDER 10 KTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH PREVAILING FZRA AT ALL SITES BY ABOUT 04Z. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WED-00Z THU...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED DUE TO WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. 00Z FRI-00Z SAT...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. 00Z SAT-00Z SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES

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