Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 020543 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 143 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 105 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN VT/ERN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NRN DACKS. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M50S TO L60S...THOUGH SOME U40S TO L50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN DACKS. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 PM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY...WITH JUST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES. THIS DUE TO APPROACH OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING TIMING OF FRONT...SURFACE INSTABILITY AND WHETHER OR NOT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INDICATED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS AND SOME SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS. TIMING OF FRONT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE SEE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...LARGE 500MB TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET DEPARTS EASTWARD, NO LONGER AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ALSO RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY MAY AFFECT THIS FEATURES PROGRESSION NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE 70S AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE INFORMATION... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMSS/KSLK/KMSS TERMINALS, BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRENDING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY 15-22Z. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. GUSTY WINDS/TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE. 12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS. && .EQUIPMENT... AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO. PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/RJS NEAR TERM...WASULA/BANACOS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG EQUIPMENT...JMG

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