Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131727 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 127 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY... LIFTING INTO CANADA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOR TONIGHT ON INTO MONDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING STEADY RAINS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 127 PM EDT SUNDAY....MORE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/SKY COVER/POPS/WX BASED OFF CURRENT TRENDS AND POSN OF WARM FRONT AT 1 PM. QUITE THE VARIABILITY IN TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SRN SLV/SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...50S IN A STRIPE IN BETWEEN INCLUDING PBG/BTV...AND 40S FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S (UGH) LINGERING ACROSS FAR NERN VT. WARM FRONT AND SURGE OF MUCH MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVANCE STEADILY NORTH AND EAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE FAR NERN VT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY HIGHS STILL BASICALLY ON TRACK WITH COOLEST READINGS FAR NORTHEASTERN VT (U40S/L50S) AND MILDEST KPBG/KBTV/KVSF SOUTH AND WEST (60S TO LOWER 70S). STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FAR NORTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT BASED OFF CURRENT TRENDS HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATES TO MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS AS OF MID-MORNING TO CAPTURE EVOLUTION OF WARM FRONTAL POSITION/CLOUDS/WX/TEMPS AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LEANED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE RAW 06Z BTV12 DATA IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES WHICH IS APPEARING TO CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AS GOOD AS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER SUCH A STRONG BAROCLINIC SITUATION LIKE TODAY. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/SRN SLV...LOWER TO MID 60S IN A SWIPE ORIENTED NW-SE IN BETWEEN INCLUDING THE NRN DACKS/PBG/BTV TO PORTIONS OF EC VT...AND 50S MUCH OF NC VT. IN FACT...SOME AREAS ACROSS NERN VT MAY ONLY CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S WHERE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESP THE SOUTWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PCPN OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE INTL BORDER LATER TODAY...PCPN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND TREND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH CENTRAL/SRN COUNTIES MAINLY DRY. RECENT HRRR/RAP...AND TO SOME EXTENT WRF RUNS STILL HINTING AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE/LIFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. THUS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHC POPS IN THIS AREA INTO FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY...CWA INTO WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. STRONG WAA WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY AS SSW WIND INCR SHARPLY. 850/925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS W/ SOME SPOTS APPROACHING 80F. GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THRU THE DAY WITH 15-25MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40MPH IN SPOTS. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT INCREASING AFTNOON CLDS AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SOME INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER A FEW -RW/-TRW BFR MAIN FRONT ARRIVES. FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE CWA AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIEST POPS DURING TUESDAY. QPF NEARING AN INCH WITH STEADY RAINS OVER AREA. WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF TRW AS AREAS WILL STILL SEE WK INSTABILITY THRU PORTION OF DAY. LATER IN THE DAY AS FRONT MVS EAST...COLDER AIR ION BACKSIDE WILL BEGIN TO CHANCE RW TO SW. EVENTUALLY HIR ELEV IN CWA COULD SEE 1-2" OF ACCUM THRU 00Z WED. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN VT TO THE 50S(DROPPING DURING THE DAY) BACK ACROSS N NY WITH COLDER AIR BLEEDING INTO AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING FROM CONTINUED RUNOFF AND RIVER RISES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW PCPN TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...WITH 850MB TEMPS CRASHING TO -14C BY 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS NRN NY EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT. BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SEE A FEW HRS OF WET SNOW BEFORE PCPN ENDS. A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4" IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000-1500 FT...WITH A SLUSHY DUSTING TO 1" ACROSS THE VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S MOST SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK...BUT LOCALLY 18-23F ACROSS NRN NY. THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CURTAIL RUNOFF FROM TUESDAY/S EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE SHARP RIVER RISES WITH MANY MAIN-STEM RIVERS CRESTING EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THRU 00Z THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ISSUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEATHER IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. GUSTY NW WINDS 10-20 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY LESSENING AS P-GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO -9C TO -10C BY 00Z THURSDAY...SO WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHILLY DAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S WITH DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS GIVEN DRY 1000-500MB RH VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S ON THURSDAY...AND AROUND 60F FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPR LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BRINGING RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY ABSENT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT DID APPEAR IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH POTENTIAL OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 50S FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AREA OF WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY 15Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY/CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAINFALL THRU 15Z...BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 5 KFT OR HIGHER. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AFTER 14-15Z. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL LAYER OF LOW STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AFTER 04Z. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS ACROSS VT...SO INCLUDED BKN-OVC015-025 AT THE VT TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KTS. SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR AND INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN NY...AND THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY ALL TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT MPV/SLK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF VT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR WED-THU. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENHANCED THREAT OF MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. HIGHEST THREAT OF FLOODING SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WATERSHEDS THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT DUE TO SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. BASIN-AVG QPF DURING THE INITIAL TIME FRAME RANGES FROM 0.33-0.66 INCHES WITH MOST CONCERN ALONG THE CHAZY...MISSISQUOI AND LAMOILLE RIVERS. LESS OF A CONCERN INITIALLY ON BASINS FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGH (CENV1 CASE IN POINT) SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS. STILL LOTS OF RIPE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MELT OUT. SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE/HEAVIER PCPN TO OCCUR LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. DURING THIS SECOND WAVE...BASIN-AVG QPF RANGES FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS ALONG WITH MORE RAPID SNOMELT GIVES RISE FOR FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS MANY BASINS...INCLUDING THE OTTER CREEK...WINOOSKI...MAD AND PASSUMPSIC TO NAME A FEW. NOT LOOKING AT MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY LATER TUESDAY NITO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE LOSE MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK BELOW 2500 FEET. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS HYDROLOGY...JMG

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