Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190526 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 126 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 945 PM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SHARPLY FALLING TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL ON TRACK FOR 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WE WILL SEE SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT CHILLY FOR MID-AUGUST WITH WIDESPREAD 40S...TO LOCALLY 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS SARANAC LAKE AND LAKE PLACID EXPECTED TO SEE THE MERCURY DROP INTO THE MID 30S. WITH SOME RECENT RAINFALL...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED LOCALES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF SOME CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHERE LIKELY POPS PREFERRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MUCH LOWER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS VERMONT AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INDICATED FOR EASTERN VERMONT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EDT MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN SHOWING PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEING CONFINED TO NORTHERN NY. I`VE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS VT. SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF MID-LEVEL LOW OFFERS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER PRIMARILY IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ALSO NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH...ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS. THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO ONE OF REX BLOCKING WITH A SLOW-EVOLVING SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL REGIME. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME STUCK BETWEEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGING INTO WESTERN NY STATE AND A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK AND CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 40N/70W. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS MAINE/NH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS TROUGHING LIKELY KEEPING MUCH OF EASTERN VT IN A COOLER EASTERLY MARITIME AIR MASS /HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S/. HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IT DOES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEST CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION SUPPRESSED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN COASTLINES OF NEW ENGLAND. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY WILL ACT TO PUSH THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW NORTHWARD BUT DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE IN HOW THAT EVOLVES. THEREFORE...SHOWN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...A 1015 MB SFC RIDGE ACRS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WL CONT TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING. THIS WL RESULT IN LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS AND CLR SKIES. VIS/CIGS ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS AT MPV/MSS/SLK AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIFR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK FROM 07Z TO 12Z. THINKING VIS/CIGS WL JUMP BTWN IFR/VFR AT MSS. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING WINOOSKI RIVER FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR BTV...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE BTWN 08Z-11Z. IFR CONDITIONS WL BECOME VFR BTWN 12-13Z THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES ANTICIPATED TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT THRU 06Z WEDS...WITH IFR DEVELOPING IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z. A WARM BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. HOWEVER...GIVEN DRY LLVLS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SFC HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS ACRS OUR TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...TABER

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