Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261742 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 142 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PERSISTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE DAY WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED...BUT INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS RATHER WEATHER SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS. MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 347 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT PERSISTENT LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST THEN WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING SW, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT REBOUND ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS SKIES BECOME CLEARER THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 412 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE 80S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WE MOVE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND TRIES TO GENERATE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO MESH WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS WEEKEND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS AN UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND HINTS AT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEREAS GFS MODEL IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK...AS SUMMER-LIKE UPPER RIDGE GETS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90 NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST BEING OFFERED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. CIGS WILL REMAIN SCT-BKN AND MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOTE SOME MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN CANADA AND HAVE INCLUDED A FEW HOURS AT KMSS/KSLK, BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS EVOLVING EASTWARD IS LOW. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, AND MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. 00Z FRI - 18Z SAT...VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE. 18Z SAT - 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR. IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF

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