Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300834 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 434 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD EARLY FALL WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COOLER...CLOUDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAINLY A WIND DIRECTION/CLOUD FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AS BACKDOOR SFC FRONT HAS SNAKED ITS WAY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHILE FURTHER EAST HAS PUSHED WEST FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL PLAIN INTO ERN PORTIONS OF VT. FRONTAL ZONE IS SHALLOW (UP TO ABOUT 2 KFT) AND TAKING ON CLASSIC DENSITY CURRENT FLOW BEHAVIOR...SO ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF GREENS LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS MODEST AIRMASS CHANGE. FOR TODAY WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR IDEA OF VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PARTIAL SUN MOST PREVALENT IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHEST CLOUD COVER IN VALLEYS OF ERN VT WHERE LIGHT EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ANY PATCHY -DZ IN ERN VT THIS MORNING SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS PBL WARMS/DRIES SLIGHTLY. WINDS LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY...BUT QUITE VARIABLE AS EVIDENT FROM CURRENT (07Z) SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS...NORTHERLY AT KPBG/KBTV...SOUTH AT KMPV...SOUTHEAST AT KRUT AND CALM AT KSLK...YOU GET THE PICTURE. ONLY OTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE SWRN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS CLOSED H5 LOW DROPS ESE FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION BY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SMALL AREA WILL LIE IN A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS (200-400 J/KG) COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ARM EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER. QPF WILL BE SCT AND LIGHT AT BEST HOWEVER. STAYED AWAY FROM BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE DATA GIVEN OUR SLIGHT REGIME CHANGE OFFERING VALUES RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TO LOCALLY AROUND 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SWRN ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...FROM TONIGHT ONWARD INTO THURSDAY PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE/DRY FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NRN NY/VT WEATHER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED H5 LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NY/NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLOUDS AGAIN QUITE VARIABLE WITH PARTIAL SUN EXPECTED HERE AND THERE...MOST PREVALENT CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST AND LESS SO EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EASTERLY MARITIME PUSH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS WELL WITH DAILY HIGHS WED/THU FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S (COOLEST ERN VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 434 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR AWAITING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS AND THE INTERNATIONAL MODELING SUITE...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING REMAIN APPARENT. THAT BEING SAID...IT`S PRETTY CLEAR THAT A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM DRY WEATHER/AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING BASED ON ABOVE GUIDANCE AND GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF SHARPLY NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) TELECONNECTION INTO EARLY OCTOBER. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS...I`M MORE APT TO BELIEVE THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING THOUGH. THEREFORE...WHILE I STILL THINK LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED I`VE SLOWED THE TIMING BACK UNTIL SATURDAY AFTN FOR NORTHERN NY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR VT. GIVEN PROGGED SHARP 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AND SYNOPTIC/FRONTAL FORCING...A FINE LINE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT WOULD BE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. I`VE ACTUALLY SHOWN RAIN AS OPPOSED TO RAIN SHOWERS AS POPS TREND TO LIKELY TO BETTER SHOW THAT SCENARIO. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SENDS 925 MB TEMPS TO AROUND +3 TO +5C BY SUNDAY AND MOSTLY STAY AROUND THAT RANGE INTO MONDAY. ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE- EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT WITH SLIGHT MODERATION TO TEMPS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ABOUT INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IT REALLY IS A MISMASH OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM SCT/BKN VFR AT PBG/BTV...MVFR DUE TO LOW STRATUS AT MPV AND RUT...IFR STRATUS AT MSS AND IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG AT SLK. BACKDOOR MARITIME FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS LAYER HAS MADE IT TO THE GREENS. WITH 925 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY PER CXX VAD...BELIEVE THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OF FAIRLY SHORT DURATION AT BOTH MPV AND RUT WITH GRADUAL TREND TOWARD BKN/OVC VFR. AT MSS...LEADING EDGE OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A PREVAILING IFR STRATUS DECK DRAINING DOWN THE VALLEY ON NE FLOW PER FOG PRODUCT. CONDITIONS FAVOR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK (ALREADY AT 4SM BR AS OF 06Z METAR). WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT EACH TAF...SOUTHEAST AT MPV AND RUT (WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT RUT)...NORTHEAST 8-10 KTS AT MSS...NORTH UNDER 5 KTS AT BTV AND CALM AT SLK. FOR TUESDAY: EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY BLEED SOUTHEASTWARD. DAYTIME INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS. BASED ON UPSTREAM POST-FRONTAL OBS...BELIEVE CEILINGS COULD LOWER DOWN TO IFR ONCE AGAIN AT MSS AND PERHAPS SLK AS WELL TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06-15Z WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR AT KMPV/KSLK AND MVFR/VFR AT KBTV AND ELSEWHERE. 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LIFR/FOG AT KMPV/KSLK LIKELY FROM 06-13Z EACH DAY. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...LOCONTO AVIATION...LOCONTO

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