Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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000
FXUS61 KBTV 150816
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
416 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain will taper off this morning with northerly breezes today
before another weak wave brings a mix of rain and snow showers
tonight. Dry conditions briefly return Saturday, followed by
another round of valley rain and mountain snow Saturday night
through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next
week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature
periods of showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...Rain is ongoing with the cold core of
the low moving across the Adirondacks this morning. Deformation
rain is breaking into areas of showers as the low tracks
eastward. Surface flow will keep upsloping ongoing through
daybreak along the eastern Greens with another 0.25 to 0.5" of
rain expected. West of the Greens through the Adirondacks could
see another 0.1-0.33" especially where heavier showers track.
Only up to 0.1" is possible for the St Lawrence Valley as focus
of precipitation has shifted eastward.
River responses have been lack-luster overnight as the heavier
rainfall missed the basins that typically react faster to
runoff, like the Ausable and Mad River basins. Still, another
0.5" is possible in the Mad River basin, so some rises to
bankfull remain possible through the morning. Otherwise, flood
concerns are minimal and will depend on training rain showers as
we go forward.
Tonight another wave quickly moves through the pattern beneath
an upper ride. Northwesterly flow pattern will favor upsloping
along the Adirondacks where synoptic lift is strongest and could
squeeze out another 0.1" of QPF. With heights falling under
cold air advection, a mix of rain and/or snow will be possible
for most elevations as this swings through. Only an inch or so
is possible above 1200ft and mainly localized in the
Adirondacks. Saturday flow shifts southerly with breezes
increasing and supporting temperatures above seasonal averages
in the 40s to low 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...A barotropic low pressure system will
track through the North Country Saturday night through Sunday.
Given wean upper level support with a jet max displaced over
the northern Plains of the United States, QPF will be on the
lighter side with lower elevation rain and mid/upper elevations
seeing snow. While the thermal gradient isn`t very impressive,
the pressure gradient will be sufficient to kick up some
southwesterly gusts 20-30mph. With flow remaining out of the
southwest, temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to around 50
degrees Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will be situated over
the region for the start of next week, causing some on and off snow
showers. A few shortwaves will pivot through along the trough and
will briefly enhance the snow showers a bit. Accumulations will be
highest on the western facing upslope areas but even there they will
still be relatively light. The Champlain Valley will likely be
downsloped a bit on Monday due to southwesterly winds but winds turn
northwesterly Monday night into Tuesday so some snow showers are
more likely then. Temperatures will rise will above freezing in the
broad valleys during the days but with steep lapse rates, the
precipitation should still fall as snow. Ridging will build in later
in the week and end the chances of snow showers but temperatures
should continue to stay around normal. Overall, highs look to be
pretty steady during this period with temperatures generally
reaching the 30s and low 40s, close to normal for the time of year.
.-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /... Through 06Z Saturday...Rain will continue to
move through the region from west to east for much of the night. The
heavier areas of rain will cause MVFR visibilities so visibilities
will be fluctuating between VFR and MVFR for much of the night as
the rain changes in intensity. Ceilings have been steadily dropping
as the rain has been moving through and that trend will continue for
much of the night. However, ceilings will likely decrease the
fastest once the steadiest rain ends. Currently forecasting ceilings
at SLK, EFK and MPV to drop to IFR later in the night but IFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out at any of the terminals once the rain
lightens up. The ceilings at the rest of the terminals will fall to
MVFR. Winds are generally light and northeasterly and they will
gradually shift to northwesterly tonight and into the day on Friday.
They will increase a little during the day Friday but winds should
generally max out at or below 10kts. Ceilings will rise a little
during the day Friday and they should at least rise to MVFR at every
terminal.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Rain will continue to move through the region
from west to east for much of the night. The heavier areas of rain
will cause MVFR visibilities so visibilities will be fluctuating
between VFR and MVFR for much of the night as the rain changes in
intensity. Ceilings have been steadily dropping as the rain has been
moving through and that trend will continue for much of the night.
However, ceilings will likely decrease the fastest once the
steadiest rain ends. Currently forecasting ceilings at SLK, EFK and
MPV to drop to IFR later in the night but IFR ceilings cannot be
ruled out at any of the terminals once the rain lightens up. The
ceilings at the rest of the terminals will fall to MVFR. Winds are
generally light and northeasterly and they will gradually shift to
northwesterly tonight and into the day on Friday. They will increase
a little during the day Friday but winds should generally max out at
or below 10kts. Ceilings will rise a little during the day Friday
and they should at least rise to MVFR at every terminal.
Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski