Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150816 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 416 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain will taper off this morning with northerly breezes today before another weak wave brings a mix of rain and snow showers tonight. Dry conditions briefly return Saturday, followed by another round of valley rain and mountain snow Saturday night through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected to begin next week as we remain under an unsettled pattern that will feature periods of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...Rain is ongoing with the cold core of the low moving across the Adirondacks this morning. Deformation rain is breaking into areas of showers as the low tracks eastward. Surface flow will keep upsloping ongoing through daybreak along the eastern Greens with another 0.25 to 0.5" of rain expected. West of the Greens through the Adirondacks could see another 0.1-0.33" especially where heavier showers track. Only up to 0.1" is possible for the St Lawrence Valley as focus of precipitation has shifted eastward. River responses have been lack-luster overnight as the heavier rainfall missed the basins that typically react faster to runoff, like the Ausable and Mad River basins. Still, another 0.5" is possible in the Mad River basin, so some rises to bankfull remain possible through the morning. Otherwise, flood concerns are minimal and will depend on training rain showers as we go forward. Tonight another wave quickly moves through the pattern beneath an upper ride. Northwesterly flow pattern will favor upsloping along the Adirondacks where synoptic lift is strongest and could squeeze out another 0.1" of QPF. With heights falling under cold air advection, a mix of rain and/or snow will be possible for most elevations as this swings through. Only an inch or so is possible above 1200ft and mainly localized in the Adirondacks. Saturday flow shifts southerly with breezes increasing and supporting temperatures above seasonal averages in the 40s to low 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...A barotropic low pressure system will track through the North Country Saturday night through Sunday. Given wean upper level support with a jet max displaced over the northern Plains of the United States, QPF will be on the lighter side with lower elevation rain and mid/upper elevations seeing snow. While the thermal gradient isn`t very impressive, the pressure gradient will be sufficient to kick up some southwesterly gusts 20-30mph. With flow remaining out of the southwest, temperatures will remain mild in the 40s to around 50 degrees Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Friday...An upper level trough will be situated over the region for the start of next week, causing some on and off snow showers. A few shortwaves will pivot through along the trough and will briefly enhance the snow showers a bit. Accumulations will be highest on the western facing upslope areas but even there they will still be relatively light. The Champlain Valley will likely be downsloped a bit on Monday due to southwesterly winds but winds turn northwesterly Monday night into Tuesday so some snow showers are more likely then. Temperatures will rise will above freezing in the broad valleys during the days but with steep lapse rates, the precipitation should still fall as snow. Ridging will build in later in the week and end the chances of snow showers but temperatures should continue to stay around normal. Overall, highs look to be pretty steady during this period with temperatures generally reaching the 30s and low 40s, close to normal for the time of year. .
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&& .AVIATION /... Through 06Z Saturday...Rain will continue to move through the region from west to east for much of the night. The heavier areas of rain will cause MVFR visibilities so visibilities will be fluctuating between VFR and MVFR for much of the night as the rain changes in intensity. Ceilings have been steadily dropping as the rain has been moving through and that trend will continue for much of the night. However, ceilings will likely decrease the fastest once the steadiest rain ends. Currently forecasting ceilings at SLK, EFK and MPV to drop to IFR later in the night but IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at any of the terminals once the rain lightens up. The ceilings at the rest of the terminals will fall to MVFR. Winds are generally light and northeasterly and they will gradually shift to northwesterly tonight and into the day on Friday. They will increase a little during the day Friday but winds should generally max out at or below 10kts. Ceilings will rise a little during the day Friday and they should at least rise to MVFR at every terminal. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Rain will continue to move through the region from west to east for much of the night. The heavier areas of rain will cause MVFR visibilities so visibilities will be fluctuating between VFR and MVFR for much of the night as the rain changes in intensity. Ceilings have been steadily dropping as the rain has been moving through and that trend will continue for much of the night. However, ceilings will likely decrease the fastest once the steadiest rain ends. Currently forecasting ceilings at SLK, EFK and MPV to drop to IFR later in the night but IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at any of the terminals once the rain lightens up. The ceilings at the rest of the terminals will fall to MVFR. Winds are generally light and northeasterly and they will gradually shift to northwesterly tonight and into the day on Friday. They will increase a little during the day Friday but winds should generally max out at or below 10kts. Ceilings will rise a little during the day Friday and they should at least rise to MVFR at every terminal. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Myskowski

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