-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 170311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1111 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1044 PM EDT SUNDAY...LATEST RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...HEADING EAST.
THESE ARE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY AND ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SAME REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO REST OF FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS EXPECTED. NO CHANGE MADE TO MIN TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AROUND 5 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND 7 PM OR SO IN EASTERN VERMONT. THE HEAVIEST AND
STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE RAIN HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAIN IS MUCH MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WILL BE
GENERALLY 0.5-0.75" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...0.25-0.50"
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS OF
NEW YORK...AND 0.10-0.25" IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

EXPECTING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BECAUSE OF
THIS...NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY MUCH...GENERALLY
INTO THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LIKELY BE STUCK WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT
EARLY ENOUGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
IS HINTED AT IN SOME OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HI-RES NAM GUIDANCE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
MAIN COLD FRONT (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. CAPE PROFILE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH TALL AND SKINNY CAPE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID...SHEAR PROFILE IS DECENT (40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR)...SO IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE SOME STORMS CAN BE BECOME STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER OVERALL NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
IS ALSO LAGGING BEHIND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT GRADUALLY PRESSES EASTWARD AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING PRETTY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER SO LOWS IN THE 50S AGAIN APPEAR REASONABLE.

CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE
OF A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN NORTHEAST VERMONT.
SHOULD BE SOME SUN AROUND AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AFTER
PERUSAL OF THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE SUITE. SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WED/THU) WILL FEATURE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ALOFT BY WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW AS WE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. BY FRIDAY
EVIDENCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY AS PRIMARY
ENERGY PASSES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THEIR ORIENTATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...NONETHELESS
ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND NEGLIGIBLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS
SUPPORT RUNNING IDEA OF CAPPING ANY POPS AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%). PER AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB THERMAL PROFILES...KEPT WITH PRIOR IDEA OF NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WARMING GRADUALLY BY 2-3
DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND BY WHICH TIME MAX
TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE WILL BE COMMON. LOWS TO FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...THOUGH WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL VARIABILITY
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL
RADIATIVE EFFECTS. BY SUNDAY FORECAST TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN AS
WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS LIFTING OUT AND IS REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR TWO AFFECT THE REGION AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ENCROACH TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER
AND HAVE INTRODUCED A NOMINAL 30 POP TO COVER ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY AT THIS DISTANT TIME RANGE. MAX TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MILD TO WARM...77 TO 83.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHOWERS. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING
OVER THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT MPV...SLK AND MSS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WON`T RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR MIST BUT
LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP MIX OUT ANY MIST WITH MOST OF THE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...IT
COULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIFFER
REGARDING TIMING SO FOR NOW HAVE TREATED WITH VCSH. WINDS SOUTH
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER TO CLEAR EARLY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. CIGS GENERALLY VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH MOST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR. WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD INTL BORDER MAY SPARK A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER
18Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO