Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 141753
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low
pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early
Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and
southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving
system will move through the Northeast late this weekend
bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow. Then
conditions remain unsettled heading into next week with near
seasonal temperatures and periods of showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...It`s a glorious afternoon out there
with ample sunshine and temps warming into the 50s with even
some low 60s showing up in southern Vermont. Mid clouds are
beginning to encroach upon the St. Lawrence Valley, and by
sunset most locations should have broken to overcast skies.
Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes
region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central
Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be fairly
strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary allowing for
efficient precipitation processes. As such, 0.3-0.75 inches of
rain is expected to fall across the region with highest amounts
across the Adirondacks/central Greens. These totals will allow
for modest river rises, but no flooding is currently
anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are susceptible to
these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of this system will
largely preclude acute flooding concerns. Rainfall will clear
west to east Friday with only a few showers lingering over
terrain by Friday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday will remain cloudy, but
temperatures will still be quite warm for the middle of March
with southwesterly flow in place. Maximum temperatures on
Saturday will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, warmest in the
valleys of southern Vermont. A vertically stacked low pressure
system situated to the north of the Great Lakes will slowly
track eastward. A surface cold front with deep low level
moisture will track across our area Saturday evening into the
overnight. Widespread precipitation is anticipated, at this time
looks like a mix of rain and snow showers. It will only be cold
enough for snow showers in the higher elevations of the
Adirondacks and Greens as lows dip into the lower 30s, mainly
mid to upper 30s in the valleys.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation associated with low
pressure system passing to our north will continue on Sunday,
then come to an end overnight. Even with cold air advection
behind departing cold front, high temperatures should still
reach the mid to upper 40s. Some colder air sinks down over our
area from Canada from Sunday night through Tuesday, and
temperatures will be a bit cooler during this timeframe. The
weather will remain showery through Monday as it takes awhile
for upper level trough and associated vorticity advection to
finally push east of the area. Ridging will start to build in at
the end of the week and temperatures will rise back above
normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR condition will persist through the
remainder of the daylight hours with mid clouds of FEW-SKC
trending to BKN-OVC by sunset. Overnight, a warm front lifting
into the region will provide widespread rain along with lower
ceilings to MVFR at all sites, by 05-07Z. Further lowering to
close to or just below IFR is expected through the remainder of
the night, before ceilings slowly lift from any IFR sites back
to MVFR by 18Z. Vsby will be a tricky forecast, mainly 4-6SM in
rain and 1-2SM briefly in snow at KSLK, but with abundant
moisture and warm temperatures riding over a fresh snowpack,
there remains the possibility if some MVFR/IFR BR/FG from around
midnight through mid-morning Friday. There may be enough
gradient wind though to inhibit this, so have left it out of the
terminal forecasts for now and will allow the next shift to
assess that potential. Winds will be light through midnight,
then increase from the north/northeast to 6-12kts through the
remainder of the period, though locally southeast KRUT through
12Z. In addition, a brief period of LLWS is likely at KRUT from
06-12Z as a low level jet brushes the region to the south.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Boyd