Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141753 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 153 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Another quick moving system will move through the Northeast late this weekend bringing another round of rain and high elevation snow. Then conditions remain unsettled heading into next week with near seasonal temperatures and periods of showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 139 PM EDT Thursday...It`s a glorious afternoon out there with ample sunshine and temps warming into the 50s with even some low 60s showing up in southern Vermont. Mid clouds are beginning to encroach upon the St. Lawrence Valley, and by sunset most locations should have broken to overcast skies. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central Greens. Although flow aloft is zonal, there will be fairly strong isothermal lift across the surface boundary allowing for efficient precipitation processes. As such, 0.3-0.75 inches of rain is expected to fall across the region with highest amounts across the Adirondacks/central Greens. These totals will allow for modest river rises, but no flooding is currently anticipated. The Mad River and Otter Creek are susceptible to these rises possibly to bank-full, but speed of this system will largely preclude acute flooding concerns. Rainfall will clear west to east Friday with only a few showers lingering over terrain by Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday will remain cloudy, but temperatures will still be quite warm for the middle of March with southwesterly flow in place. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, warmest in the valleys of southern Vermont. A vertically stacked low pressure system situated to the north of the Great Lakes will slowly track eastward. A surface cold front with deep low level moisture will track across our area Saturday evening into the overnight. Widespread precipitation is anticipated, at this time looks like a mix of rain and snow showers. It will only be cold enough for snow showers in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Greens as lows dip into the lower 30s, mainly mid to upper 30s in the valleys.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation associated with low pressure system passing to our north will continue on Sunday, then come to an end overnight. Even with cold air advection behind departing cold front, high temperatures should still reach the mid to upper 40s. Some colder air sinks down over our area from Canada from Sunday night through Tuesday, and temperatures will be a bit cooler during this timeframe. The weather will remain showery through Monday as it takes awhile for upper level trough and associated vorticity advection to finally push east of the area. Ridging will start to build in at the end of the week and temperatures will rise back above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...VFR condition will persist through the remainder of the daylight hours with mid clouds of FEW-SKC trending to BKN-OVC by sunset. Overnight, a warm front lifting into the region will provide widespread rain along with lower ceilings to MVFR at all sites, by 05-07Z. Further lowering to close to or just below IFR is expected through the remainder of the night, before ceilings slowly lift from any IFR sites back to MVFR by 18Z. Vsby will be a tricky forecast, mainly 4-6SM in rain and 1-2SM briefly in snow at KSLK, but with abundant moisture and warm temperatures riding over a fresh snowpack, there remains the possibility if some MVFR/IFR BR/FG from around midnight through mid-morning Friday. There may be enough gradient wind though to inhibit this, so have left it out of the terminal forecasts for now and will allow the next shift to assess that potential. Winds will be light through midnight, then increase from the north/northeast to 6-12kts through the remainder of the period, though locally southeast KRUT through 12Z. In addition, a brief period of LLWS is likely at KRUT from 06-12Z as a low level jet brushes the region to the south. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Boyd

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