Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181656 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1156 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The wintry mix will taper off during the day today, with most precipitation limited to the mountains by tonight. Low pressure south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the region through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1156 AM EST Wednesday...Decreasing trend of precipitation continues late this morning and should remain more spotty in nature this afternoon. Have adjusted forecast to reflect this scenario. Otherwise going forecast in good shape. Should still see quite a bit of clouds tonight with fog being rather persistent in some areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend. Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country`s weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Next potential system looks to impact the region early next week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing, especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At least that`s what the models are telling us now, but there`s lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows in the 20s/30s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... Through 02Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings most locations except LIFR KMSS. Low level moisture will remain locked in the area during the TAF period and see little improvement in ceiling heights. Mainly snow to continue over most of the area except KMSS where northeast flow locks in upper 20s temperatures and light freezing rain/mist. Precipitation to gradually come to an end this afternoon when upper trough moves out of area. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though most of the period with winds 05-15 knots. 12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR rain/snow showers. 00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanson NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hanson

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