Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 260651 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 251 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA RIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 105 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. 6-9 SM VISIBILITIES FROM HAZE CAUSED FROM SMOKE PLUME ALOFT ARE MORE IN THE 8-9 SM RANGE PER AREA METARS. I`VE OPTED TO EXTEND HAZY CONDITIONS A FEW HOURS LONGER WITH STILL SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TAKING PLACE...THOUGH IT`S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE HARDER TO SEE NOW WITH NIGHTFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP. BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE TO BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOW ACROSS ONTARIO/WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS BOTH OF THESE ASPECTS COVERED PRETTY WELL. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL DURING THE DAY AND IT WILL TAKE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES IN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCES PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES DURING THE WEEK...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER MINIMAL SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED IN GRIDS. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO MAINE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT. UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB TEMPS THEN PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN AROUND +10 C TUE/WED THEN MODERATING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...MODERATING TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOCAL IFR/VLIFR IN FOG AND STRATUS 7-12Z AT KMPV/KSLK WHERE CROSSOVER TEMP HAS BEEN MET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT S-SW...THOUGH LOCALLY SW AROUND 10 KTS AT KMSS WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW AND CHANNELING IN THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECG SWLY AROUND 10 KTS AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD 06Z SUN. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN SCT SHOWERS/STORMS. 12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. 00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...SISSON

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