Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280547 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure system continues to push eastward across Quebec. Scattered showers redevelop Tuesday as surface front moves west to east across our area. Wednesday and Thursday will be drier with ridge of high pressure building south out of Canada and over the North country. Another storm system looks to affect the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1107 PM EDT Monday...The North Country is in between mid- level troughs this evening. The leading shortwave trough - which brought this morning`s precipitation (0.30" at BTV since midnight) - is exiting ewd across nrn Maine and New Brunswick. There is a weaker shortwave and associated surface trough across sern Ontario and swrn Quebec, with is maintaining a moist S-SE flow across the North Country overnight. Not anticipating much change in wx conditions next 6-12hrs...with temps generally holding above freezing in the 35-40F range with low overcast in place. Dewpoint depressions are small, and have seen some developing fog at MSS/Potsdam this evening. With upr 30s dewpoints over the existing snowpack, could see some additional patchy dense fog overnight. Deep-layer forcing is limited. In fact, NAM/RAP soundings show mid-level drying thru the remainder of the overnight...so any lingering precipitation should primarily be drizzle or perhaps a light orographically induced rain shower or two. Only change with this update was to include patchy fog areawide. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday....Surface high pressure will build southward from James Bay Tuesday. Low pressure system tracks eastward across Quebec dragging a surface front with it across our CWA. Will have some scattered light rain showers for Tuesday into the first part of Tuesday night. Region will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of aforementioned front early in the day and max temperatures will reach the upper 40s to around 50. Strongest shortwave energy stays well south of our CWA Tuesday, therefore only scattered showers expected with the frontal passage in the afternoon into Tuesday evening. Showers will taper off Tuesday overnight, with possible change over to snow showers with colder air moving into the region on Northwesterly flow. On Wed upper level trough pushes across our area with surface high pressure building south and east from central Ontario. Will continue to be some scattered light rain or snow showers, mainly across the northern high terrain. Wednesday will be about ten degrees cooler than Tue and back below seasonal normals once again. Looks to be a breezy day as well with cold air advection and northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Partly sunny skies will develop during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday night any remaining precipitation comes to an end with large ridge of surface high pressure ridging into the north country. Wednesday night will be near normal, temps dropping back into the 20s with some teens in the Dacks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 357 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country Thursday through Thursday night with fair and dry weather expected. A low pressure area over the Ohio valley will spread moisture into the region on Friday. GFS and ECMWF model showing some timing differences at this time, with the GFS model holding off precipitation until Friday afternoon, while the ECMWF is more aggressive and bring precipitation in earlier in the day on Friday. Have raised superblend pops to high chance (50 percent) for Friday across the region, and will have likely pops for Friday night. Will go with a mention of rain and snow for Friday and Friday night. Precipitation will linger into Saturday, so will continue with a chance of rain and snow. Have stuck with superblend pops for Saturday night and Sunday, and will have a chance of rain or snow showers. A ridge of high pressure will build into the north country on Monday for fair and dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR to VLIFR will continue through the overnight hours and into the morning hours before a slight lift to MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the period. Some scattered rain showers are likely from mid-morning through the evening as a cold front shifts into the region with brief reductions in vsby. Light winds shift to the northwest at 5-10 knots behind the front after 18Z across northern New York and after 21Z across Vermont. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in scattered scattered rain/snow showers, mainly across central/northern Vermont. 00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated snow showers over higher terrain. 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure. 12Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...Lahiff

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