Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 212013 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 413 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING 500 MB LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...EJECTING A VORT CENTER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER VORT SPEEDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE SURFACE LOW LAGS BEHIND OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE LIMITED. SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND CROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT IN PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE. EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DEWPOINTS LOWERED AS DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH 40KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE. RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING LIMITS INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY MORNING. TEMPS...TONIGHT BEGINS COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LOWS IN 40S IN NY AND 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL POSTFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED. 00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE- FRI. && .MARINE... AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI MARINE...MUCCILLI

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