Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221515 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1115 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to dominate into the middle of next week while Hurricane Jose remains southeast of New England. Quiet and dry conditions continue through the weekend with some fog in the favored locations in the early mornings. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal average with potential record highs over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1113 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes made to the forecast. Previous discussion follows. New day, same story. High pressure is still entrenched over the North Country. This is keeping Post Tropical Cyclone Jose to the southeast of the CWA with mainly just some higher clouds over the area today, which should decrease in coverage as the day progresses. The fog and low stratus we`ve seen over the last few nights is not nearly as widespread this morning. Still, a couple hours at and right after sunrise is still possible and should be gone by mid morning. For the day, Friday looks to shape up to another well above average day with partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 70s to 80 and light northerly winds. Overnight will see another chance for a round of fog as we`ve seen over most of the week. Saturday will see an even warmer day as 925mb temps of 21-22C will see valley locations pushing mid to upper 80s with sunny skies again. Time to break that A/C back out. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge builds into the region Saturday night into Sunday with full sunshine expected. It will definitely feel like summer with highs on Sunday in the 80s with a few larger valley locations pushing 90...and dew points in the 60s. Forecasted temperatures on Sunday suggests some new record high temperatures will be established. Atmosphere remains capped so feel convection is not likely to develop. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Friday...Upper ridge remains over the area right through Monday and it looks like another day where some record highs could be established. 850 millibar temperatures will be maximized over the area on Monday which should contribute to high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal. In the Tuesday through Thursday time period we will start to see the upper ridge flatten a bit and this might increase the potential for some showers near the Canadian border on Tuesday and then potentially affecting the remainder of the area Wednesday into Thursday as the flow aloft becomes more southwest with time indicating the approach of an upper trough. At this time it appears Thursday may have the best chance for showers given the instability and increasing dynamic support. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with the exception of lingering MVFR/LIFR cig/vsby at KMSS/KMPV. Both should improve back to VFR by 14Z. Will see N-NE winds during the day today at 5-10kts. Another chance of overnight fog again for the usual locations again tonight. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures and year recorded for the period Sat Sep 23 to Tue Sep 26 Day Burlington Massena Montpelier 9/23 87 / 1895 84 / 1964 83 / 1965 9/24 84 / 1961 87 / 2010 83 / 1961 9/25 85 / 1891 90 / 2007 85 / 2007 9/26 84 / 1934 82 / 1970 83 / 2007 For Burlington, here are the latest in the year dates for reaching specific temperature thresholds 90F or higher: 9/16/1939 88F or higher: 9/22/1965 87F or higher: 9/23/1895 86F or higher: 9/23/1895 (was 87F that day) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...NRR/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Verasamy CLIMATE...BTV

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