Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 271909 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 309 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon today as an upper level short wave tracks into the North Country. These storms will have the potential to cause gusty winds and small hail. The showers and thunderstorms end tonight and much of the area will be dry on Wednesday with just the possibility of some showers up along the international border. Below normal temperatures will continue through midweek but a warmer and wetter pattern sets up for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...The radar continues to see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the North Country. The lack of much surface instability has limited how tall the storms have been capable of growing however with low freezing levels and advancing cold pool aloft anticipate a continued small hail threat through the evening hours. The showers will end this evening as we lose what little diurnal driven heat warmed the area to the upper 60s. High pressure will build in behind the upper level shortwave as it exits the region this evening and Wednesday. There may be some residual energy that holds on along the international border so I could see some isolated showers that develop in the afternoon but otherwise it should be a pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...As the weak ridge continues to build into region anticipate any residual showers to come to an end. With high pressure aloft it should be a relatively quiet night. Unfortunately that quiet weather will end as we start to see a return towards a more active period. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will push a west/east oriented warm front over the region. Showers develop along the boundary across northern New York during the morning, and become widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon and into Thursday night. Composites charts indicate that the combination of forcing/lift/shear/instability isn`t quite aligned so we may or may not see much widespread thunder. However given continuity I went ahead and continued to include mention of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday generally along the southern tier where instability will be highest.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...As we head into the weekend the biggest threat will be the continued active weather. We are currently already an 1.5 inches above normal for the month and nearly 6 inches above normal of precip for the year. With continued active weather and more rain on the way hydro impacts come straight to my mind. Friday night and Saturday will see several waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal boundary to our west will provide ample instability for showers and thunderstorms along with additional moisture and PWATs surging to 1.5-2". While the exact timing of each individual wave is difficult at this time, confidence is high we`ll see periods of heavy rain with rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range on top of the 1" we`re likely to see on Thursday. Considering how wet area soils are already, this could be the tipping point to realize flash flood potential and bears watching through the week. Sunday remains showery, especially across northern areas as the parent upper trough and surface cold front look to swings through the region, with quieter and drier conditions expected Monday post fropa.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Through 18Z Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue moving southwest to northeast across the entire area until 02z. These storms will have the potential for gusty winds, generally up to 20-30kts and small hail. Visibilities in the strongest storms will drop to 3-4SM but given the spatial nature of the storms I couldn`t call anything as prevailing. So I`ve continued the previous forecasters idea using a tempo group to handle the storms with vicinity showers elsewhere and amendments for TS when needed. Any showers and storms will quickly be ending between 00z and 04z. Expect VFR conditions through the period...with localized MVFR/IFR conditions near the showers and storms. Winds will generally be from the south and southwest through the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA. Thursday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA...Likely TSRA. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal/Lahiff AVIATION...Deal

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