Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 290732 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 332 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY NOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. PWATS WILL BE HIGH AS A FEED OFF THE GULF STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES THOUGH...PRETTY WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME CAPE DOES SHOW UP ON THE SREF AND NAM. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...FEEL STRONGER STORMS MAY COINCIDE AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 325 AM EDT FRIDAY...A STRONG 1039MB AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILES EXPECT A LARGE SWING FROM COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING TO HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTN. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND NEK ON MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST MEX FOR SLK SHOWING A 30F. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C ON MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH NORTH WINDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. GFS KEEPS OUR CWA DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. ITS INTERESTING THAT THE GFS SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WAY TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 5H TROF AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR TUES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...WITH VERY CHILLY TEMPS. THINKING THE ECMWF IS A BIT AGRESSIVE WITH ADVECTION OF MOISTURE NORTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES...GIVEN POSITION OF HIGH...SO WILL CONT TO KEEP FCST DRY ATTM. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO A DAY...AND SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK INTO THE M/U 70S MTNS TO L 80S WARMER VALLEYS BY THURSDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...1028MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES WITH CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG/BR TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RECENTLY...LIKE SLK. HAVE MENTION VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND VIS AROUND 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE FOG AT MPV...WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING...BUT GIVEN DRYING ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR...THINKING FOG/BR WILL DEVELOP BTWN 07-08Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MSS WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR IN FOG/BR AT PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 07-11Z. OTHERWISE...FOG/BR WILL LIFT BTWN 11Z-13Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV BTWN 07-11Z SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTN...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTN. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO LOWER VIS BTWN 1-3SM IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (1V4) IS NOT CURRENTLY REPORTING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE 1V4 ASOS COMMUNICATIONS LINE WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER EQUIPMENT...WGH

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