Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 210529 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1229 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected through Sunday night with variably cloudy skies and only an outside chance of a stray sprinkle or flurry. A storm system will affect the area Monday into Tuesday with a variety of mixed precipitation and rain, before colder more seasonal temperatures return by the middle to later portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 635 PM EST Saturday...Only minimal updates this evening based on cloud cover and associated temperature trends. Still relatively mild across the region this evening, including 42F at BTV at 2330Z. A broad west to southwesterly flow persists between distant low pressure to our north and east and subtropical high pressure draped across the southeastern seaboard offshore to near Bermuda. For the overnight period, we`re still watching a cold front dropping southward from southern Ontario/Quebec province in association with the aforementioned low. This is a rather moisture-starved boundary and with models somewhat bearish on precipitation chances/QPF I`ve only offered a pre- frontal 20-40 pop for a few snow showers or sprinkles/flurries through midnight or so across the north before values begin to wane. The actual front should sink south into the area in the 100-600 am time frame with winds trending light northerly to near calm by sunrise Sunday. Low temperatures mainly in the 20s to locally near 30 south. By Sunday into Sunday night, the boundary essentially trends stationary to our immediate south with variable clouds and once again, perhaps a stray flurry across the north over time. Model- averaged 925 mb thermal profiles cool by some 3-5C supporting highs around 30 along the international border and ranging through the 30s elsewhere. With abundant clouds overnight lows to hold on the mild side by late January standards and range mainly through the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Warm front will move into the Northern New York and Vermont area from the southwest late in the day on Monday and bring some rain or snow to parts of the area...with a little light mixed precipitation across parts of northern New York. Temperatures on Monday will reach the 30s, with some upper 30s in the Saint Lawrence valley and mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will be nearly steady or even rising Monday night into Tuesday. By midnight mixed precipitation should lift north of the area and we will then be in a dry slot until the very early morning hours on Tuesday. Rain is expected from 09z-21 Tuesday, with the heaviest totals across Southern and Eastern Vermont. Most of the precipitation will be out ahead of the cold front with drier colder air moving in afterwards. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday should be well into the 40s, then drop back into the 20s following cold frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Saturday...Some snow showers may linger behind departing cold front into the day on Wednesday, especially across our Northern zones. We are then expecting dry and cold weather from Wednesday night through Saturday with high pressure over the region. Thursday looks to be the coldest day of the extended period, then warming headed into the weekend. Another system approaches for next weekend, tracking west of us so will be another thing to watch as we get closer to next Sun. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions are trending towards MVFR as weak cold front and associated ribbon of enhanced moisture moves into the North Country. In addition to lower cigs to mvfr levels this boundary might bring a few scattered rain/snow showers through 12Z. Ceilings will improve briefly at the valley locations after 15Z back to VFR before dropping back to MVFR ahead of the next system coming in Monday evening. Winds will shift NW at 05-10 knots before going light and variable after 12Z. Outlook... Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA, Likely RA, Chance PL. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SHRA, Definite FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Banacos/JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Taber/Verasamy

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