Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KBTV 230403
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1103 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017
Plenty of clouds will persist overnight along with some areas of
fog. Otherwise...a complex storm system will spread a wintry
mix of snow...sleet...and freezing rain across the North Country
on Monday Night into Tuesday. A plowable snow and sleet accumulation
is expected...with still some uncertainty on exact amounts. Also...
some ice accumulation is likely...especially central and eastern
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1103 PM EST Sunday...Just some fine tuning to the
forecast with a few light rain or snow showers possible
overnight across south central Vermont. Otherwise plenty of
clouds...some patchy fog...and gusty downslope winds along the
west slopes of the southern Green Mountains.
Little change is anticipated on Monday with highs mainly in the
upper 20s to mid 30s most locations. Expect northeast winds at
10 to 20 knots across the Saint Lawrence Valley with some higher
gusts possible near kmss. Models have trended slower with precip
arrival time associated with our next complex system...so have
chance pops central/southern areas after 21z. Any precip will
be light and under 0.05 through 00z Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 212 PM EST Sunday...Short term period looking at a significant
sleet storm with light icing in eastern Vermont and mixing with
snow in northern New York. Low pressure moving off the mid
Atlantic states at the start of the short term period, with
ridge of high pressure over northern New England. Cool surface
flow around the high will bring surface temperatures in the 20s
Tuesday night. As the low moves northeast up the Atlantic coast,
easterly low level flow will bring a nose of +2 to +4C air
between 700 & 800 mb to the region. Forecasting predominantly
sleet with this weather event as the warm layer prevents snow
from reaching the ground in appreciable amounts.
As surface low moves northeast impressive 60 knot 850 mb jet noses
into southern Vermont at 06z and moves across eastern Vermont
through 12z. Expect 40-50 mph wind gusts mainly across the
RIDGETOPS Tuesday night, with some downslope enhancement on the
west side of the southern Green Mountains. Will also see
terrain enhancement to precipitation with these winds,
increasing precip amounts on the eastern slopes of the Green and
Adirondack mountains, with some shadowing in the northern
Connecticut and Champlain valleys.
Looking for precipitation to spread south to north across the
region, beginning 03-06z while surface low is centered off the
delmarva and overspread entire area by 12z. Usually a sharp cutoff
with precipitation as these move northeast somewhere over northern
NY. While far western part of our area in the St. Lawrence Valley
will be in the colder air, that is where there will be less QPF thus
lower snowfall amounts. Any snow will be heavy and dense with low
ratios. Even any areas that have primarily snow in northern New York
will have an 8:1 ratio at best. Winter Weather Advisory will be
issued with this afternoon package for the entire area, based more
on sleet and some light icing in Vermont, becoming more sleet and
snow in northern New York. Good confidence in the sleet forecast in
Vermont, but my confidence decreases with western extent.
Bulk of precipitation lifts north of the forecast area during the
day Tuesday, however as winds shift northwesterly with the passage
of the surface low will see some lingering upslope snow showers.
With that in mind will have Winter Weather Advisory go through
Tuesday evening to encompass any lingering winter weather
-- End Changed Discussion --
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 237 PM EST Sunday...While things will remain active, the extended
period looks to be mainly just an enhanced period of snow
shower activity as the region remains under the influence of
500mb through through the end of the period. Wednesday morning
starts with a quick break in showers before the next system
moves through Wednesday afternoon into Thursday bringing
snow/rain showers, though most of the stronger activity should
remain in the higher elevation`s with the valleys seeing
marginal activity at best. The week closes out with minimal
chances of snow showers, again mainly in the higher elevations
into the weekend as temps look to remain mild with highs in the
mid 30`s to 40`s and lows upper 20`s to lower 30`s until the
weekend when temps trend closer to Jan normals.
.AVIATION /04Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Expect MVFR to LIFR ceilings across the
area through about 12z before lifting into the MVFR category for
the remainder of the period. Visibilities will generally be
VFR...but through 12z there will be periods of IFR and MVFR
visibilities in fog. Of note will be strong downslope winds at
KRUT after 04z where wind gusts to 35 knots will be possible
from the southeast creating rather turbulent conditions.
Outlook 00z Tuesday through Friday...
Expecting a wintry mix of precip to develop on Monday evening
and continue into Tuesday with the potential for moderate icing
and major impacts to the aviation community. A mix of
snow...sleet...and freezing rain is expected...with the heaviest
precip occurring between 03z-15z Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr
cigs/vis with periods of lifr vis in the heavier bursts of
snow/sleet. Also...gusty southeast/east winds are likely at
Rutland during this time period...with areas of wind shear and
turbulence areawide associated with 925mb to 800mb winds of 50
to 60 knots. Improving conditions with lingering rain/snow
showers on Weds into Thursday.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 PM EST Tuesday