Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 192306 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT. 500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND MATCH GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5 STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK. LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER. AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME. 00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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