Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 161920 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 320 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRIOR DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH 57-62F. HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE 24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS. OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...MUCCILLI AVIATION...JMG HYDROLOGY...EVENSON

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