Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 141927 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND SCATTERED FROST AWAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH BETTER MIXING TAKING PLACE BENEATH THE 925MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION...WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT ALL DAY. LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SET UP A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY VT. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/ERN VT. HAVE CONTINUED FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN WRN CLINTON COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/ERN VT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 29F AT KSLK...AND GENERALLY 30-32F ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESSEX COUNTY VT. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY MID-UPR 30S...EXCEPT LOW 40S AROUND LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. FOR THOSE WITH CROPS/TENDER VEGETATION STILL GROWING...TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IN THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORY AREAS TONIGHT. ALSO...MOVE ANY HOUSE PLANTS INDOORS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE USUAL VALLEYS 05-13Z...INCLUDING THE LOWER PASSUMPSIC...CONNECTICUT...AND WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEYS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 259 PM EDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING EWD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...WITH FOG DISSIPATING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS 12-13Z. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME MID-UPPER CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE SEASONABLE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT S-SW WITH PREVAILING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BEST FORCING FROM QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS THRU NY AND VT 06-12Z TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8". ANTICIPATE RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.1-0.25" MOST SECTIONS...WITH THE CONSENSUS FOR THE HIGHEST AMTS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXITING THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY NOON OR SO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. QUIET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EDT SUNDAY...COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THU NGT/ERLY FRI THEN GRADUAL LIFTING OF HEIGHTS AND ZONAL TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT THRU SAT/SUN THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON TIMING OF NEXT TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WITH ECMWF AND GEM MORE IN LINE OF GREATER AMPLITUDE DEVELOPMENT IN UPR MS RVR VLY/GRT LAKES FOR DELAY IN THE FRONT TIL LATE SUN AND BEYOND VS. WEAKER SYSTEM OF GFS AND CHC SHOWERS SAT NGT-SUN. WPC SYNOPTIC CHARTS FOLLOWS ECMWF/GEM YET STILL HAS SHOWERS IN GRIDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS TIME FRAME SO MINIMAL POPS FOR CHC SHRA SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE AND COMPROMISE. BASICALLY...HIGH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MODERATING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS. UPR LEVEL TROF WITH REINFORCING COLDER AIR LATE WED/WED NGT CUD TRIGGER ISOLD INSTABILITY MTN SHOWER. SEVERAL CHANCES OF FROST/FREEZE THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE BY 22Z AS SKIES CLEAR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP AFT 04Z TO 14Z DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT KSLK/KMPV BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE VFR. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND TODAY...LGT/VRBL TNGT AND MON. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VFR. 00Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR. 00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR ON THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012-016. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ031. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ029-030-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...SLW

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