Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 282346 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 646 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING OUR REGION. WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MUCH BELOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 623 PM EST WEDNESDAY... CURRENT SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO REFLECT THE THERMAL DECOUPLING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS OF 615 NEWPORT IS ALREADY DOWN TO 0 UNDER CALM WINDS. WV/IR SATELLITE CONTINUE TO PAINT A COLD PICTURE AS NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE WITH THE COLDEST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR -20. INSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TEMPS WILL RANGE SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A STRONG INVERSION WITH DECOUPLED CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND FRESH SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS...WHILE S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE TEMPS...BASED ON TRICKY LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN -6C AND -8C BY 12Z THURS...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY COLD BL TEMPS UNDER A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION. THIS WL SUPPORT A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM -20F SLK/NEK TO -15F TO -5F CENTRAL VT VALLEYS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEAR 0F CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 5 TO 10F MIDSLOPES. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY. TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PRECIP. EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CHANNELING OF THE LLVL WINDS. TEMPS WL DROP SHARPLY ON FRIDAY...WITH LOCAL BTV4KM SHOWING SFC TEMPS DROPPING FROM NEAR 30F TO 7F IN < 6 HOURS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THESE SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPS...COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW WL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FREEZE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS DROPPING BLW ZERO BY FRIDAY EVENING...WL CREATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BTWN -20F AND -40F ACRS OUR CWA. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 337 PM EST WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER BUT OVERALL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH. GOING INTO SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE 00Z SUITE, SOUTH STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DOESN`T PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH NEVER BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BASED ON PREVIOUS RUNS THOUGH CAN`T COMPLETELY GO WITH TODAY`S MODELS AND WHILE I`VE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON POPS, WILL KEEP CHANCE IN THERE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED. BEYOND MONDAY PATTERN TURNS COLD AND DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG 1030MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY AND FALL BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF BLAST OF CLOD THOUGH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AT MSS/SLK...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS WILL COME AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTHERLY AT MOST SITES ON THURSDAY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS AT MSS WILL TURN NORTHEAST FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z FRIDAY - 12Z SATURDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...CIGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR VSBY IN SNOW, MAINLY FROM 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. 12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS TREND LIGHT. 00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER CLIPPER (WEAKER) PASSES THROUGH. 00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...DEAL SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI

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