Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 071741 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 141 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SUNNY BREAKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY... EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO THAT`S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT 1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS. DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50". KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS 10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SHOWERS VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY, BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HITTING A TERMINAL, WILL JUST GO WITH VCSH AND AMD/TEMPO IN ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS THEY OCCUR. AFTER 22-23Z THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHERE LOWER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND WE`RE LEFT WITH A MID/HIGH DECK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT REACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 02Z ALONG WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN LIGHT RAIN, TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 11Z, AND THEN QUICK CLEARING THEREAFTER TO VFR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FOR WINDS, MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-16KTS (EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT KPBG) TURN NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 18Z WED - 12Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. 12Z SUN - 00Z MON: VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 140 PM EDT TUESDAY...KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW BACK IN SERVICE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...LAHIFF EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.