Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261911 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wane across the area this evening, though reblossom in earnest on Tuesday as vigorous upper energy pushes into the area. After a mainly dry Wednesday, unsettled weather returns for later in the week and into next weekend. The potential for some heavier rainfall will exist, especially by next weekend as a front lingers in the area and conditions trend warmer and more humid. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM EDT Monday...Scattered showers and a few/isolated storms have developed as expected this afternoon along a weak surface trough draped from near Lake Ontario east into central New England as of mid-afternoon. Weak convergent flow and low- end surface-based instability along this boundary is driving this activity in the absence of larger synoptic- scale forcing, and given rather poor lapse rates aloft coverage should wane as we progress beyond sunset and toward the overnight hours. A brief heavy downpour will be possible here and there, but many areas will remain dry so don`t cancel any outdoor plans you may have for this evening. Lows a blend of consensus guidance offering lows ranging through the 50s in most spots. A better coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday as another fairly vigorous shortwave swings directly through the region. Juxtaposition of this feature with chilly thermal profiles aloft (-20 to -22C at 500 mb) suggests convection will likely organize into one or two bands which will sweep across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. Not enough instability to drive anything to severe levels, but given low wet bulb zero heights below 8 kft some brief gusty winds and small hail could certainly occur. Best probabilities across eastern counties where at least some morning/early afternoon partial sunshine will steepen low level lapse rates. Highs a bit cooler tomorrow with the convection and an broad increase in afternoon ambient cloud cover...mainly 60s to perhaps a few spot 70F readings south and east. Shortwave then exits east through the evening hours on Tuesday with convective coverage lessening over time and leaving a mainly dry overnight period. Again, a few early evenning storms may spit out some small hail east early. Low temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler than tonight, generally upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday looks to be a relative minimum in the convective activity for the week. Northwest flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave should dry things out despite a fair amount of cold air aloft. There will be some instability developing in the afternoon but areal coverage should remain fairly low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 247 PM EDT Monday...Thursday will begin a stretch of active weather through the end of the week. A wave along a frontal boundary will travel north of the border Thursday through thursday night with a boundary stretched out east to west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to the west of the area in the lower great lakes and southern Ontario and move east along the boundary. Instability progged to be meager Thursday and thursday night so overall thunder chances area fairly low. Instability increases Friday so increased thunder chances Friday and Friday night. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport more moisture rich air into the region Friday and Saturday. Available instability progged to increase with the moisture plume moving into the area, but deep layer shear is meager at this point. PWAT values by Saturday way back up into the 1.50-2.00" range and heavy rainfall is definitely a concern. The rainfall of the last week, combined with whatever falls Thursday could set the stage for a flash flood event Saturday. Amount and location of Thursday`s rainfall will set the antecedent conditions for any potential flooding Saturday. Still quite far out in the forecast, but definitely bears watching. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR with SCT/BKN cigs in the 040-080 AGL range through 12Z Tuesday under light south to southwesterly flow. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to affect terminals in the 18-04Z time frame this afternoon/evening, but most of the period should remain dry. KBTV threat the highest in the 22-01Z time frame. Overnight any lingering showers to end leaving mainly VFR. Some brief and patchy MVFR cigs in the 015 AGL range possible at KMPV and KSLK from 09-12Z but confidence low. After 12Z Tuesday more robust energy pushing into the area aloft will spark better coverage of showers/sct storms. Highest coverage initially at KSLK/KMSS from 14Z onward where MVFR will be offered. Further east shower/storm probabilities increasing by 18Z but covered with just VCSH at this point given timing uncertainty. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance RA...Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA...Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Manning LONG TERM...Manning AVIATION...JMG

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