Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 280841 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 341 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warming trend will take place today and Wednesday. In fact... record high temperatures will be possible on Wednesday as temperatures climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s. It will be dry today...but increasing chances for rain showers are expected tonight and especially on Wednesday. There may even be a few thunderstorms over parts of the area Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Cooler and drier weather moves into the region Thursday and persists right through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...Relatively quiet day today with increasing clouds as flow aloft gradually becomes more southwest with time. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Deeper moisture moves into the region tonight and continues into Wednesday as southwest flow aloft becomes established over the area. The increase in moisture will also lead to increasing chances for rain showers tonight and especially on Wednesday. The clouds and precipitation will keep low temperatures generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. Wednesday still looks to be the most interesting day with stronger southwest flow aloft over the area. We continue to expect above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s...which would set new record highs at a number of locations. Above normal precipitable water values are expected on Wednesday...2 to 3 times higher than normal for this time of year...which will increase the potential for higher precipitation amounts on Wednesday with any showers. There will also be the potential for some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as instability develops across the area. The northern Adirondacks... much of the Champlain Valley...and areas south of Route 2 in Vermont will have the potential to see any of these storms. Flow aloft will be rather strong and this could be a limiting factor to developing organized convection as the shear may be too strong given the limited instability that develops. The hydrologic threat will also need to be monitored on Wednesday as bursts of heavier precipitation will be taking place in addition to some snowmelt and resulting runoff due to the warmer temperatures. Rivers are starting off higher than the last event and with the warmer temperatures...any rivers that are still ice covered could see some ice breakup as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 322 PM EST Monday...On Tuesday night a warm front will lift Northwards across our CWA as a low pressure system lifts Northeastward across the Great Lakes area. We will have scattered rain showers at this time with overnight minimum temperatures achieved early in the night, very mild, then increasing with warm air advection through the overnight hours. Brisk southerly flow is expected. Looks like there will be a chance for some elevated convection, mainly from 06-12z Wednesday morning and have chance of TS mentioned in the forecast during that time. Wednesday will be very warm, likely setting more max temperature records for the day to start out the month of March. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes region eastward on Wednesday, and we should remain in the warm sector all day. Have mentioned stratiform rain categorical on Wednesday. Feel that best chance for thunder will be south of our forecast area. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty out of the South. Wednesday night the cold front will finally cross the area. Any rain showers remaining will change over to snow showers with sharp cold front dropping temperatures into the teens and 20s overnight. Wednesday night the winds will veer around to Northwesterly behind the front and will see some enhancement in the Northwest facing slopes with a bit favorable orographic flow. At this time looks like our QPF totals will range from around a half an inch to an inch.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 357 PM EST Monday...Expect a near normal day on Thursday with snow showers ending as system pulls further east and away from the region. Upper level flow flattens out and a ridge of surface high pressure builds over the area. Below normal temperatures are expected for Friday through Saturday night. Temperatures return to above normal then for the end of the forecast period as high pressure sets up off the Carolina coast for Sunday and Monday. GFS and ECMWF both show a system to impact the region from the Monday night through Wednesday timeframe, though huge discrepancies are evident at this time. && .AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected the through the period as a weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region. A warm front will approach the region Tuesday afternoon with a chance of light rain showers developing over northern New York between 18Z-21z Tuesday, and then across the Champlain valley and Vermont between 21z-23Z Tuesday. Expecting some areas of MVFR conditions in light rain showers, mainly after 00Z Wednesday. Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday... 06Z Wednesday - 06Z Thursday...Scattered/numerous rain showers with variable cigs from VFR to IFR before low pressure and cold front crosses the region Wed evening. 06Z Thursday 12Z Saturday...Becoming Mainly VFR but ocnl snow showers/flurries and MVFR/IFR conditions. 12z Saturday onward...Mainly VFR under high pressure. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 400 PM EST Monday...We continue to watch Tuesday night through Wednesday night time period closely for the potential for additional river rises associated with several rounds of showers and warm temperatures. Additional snowmelt and the potential for river rises...especially given the already high levels. The good news is that most river ice is gone and our areal coverage of deep snow pack is much less than previous event...resulting in less runoff potential. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts.
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&& .CLIMATE... We could see some records broken on Wednesday based on our forecast high temperatures. Current records for March 1st are as follows: Burlington - 59 set in 1954 Montpelier - 53 set in 1991 St. Johnsbury - 58 set in 1954 Massena - 49 set in 1954 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...WGH HYDROLOGY...Taber/Neiles CLIMATE...Evenson

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