Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 300712 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 312 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1014 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS NRN LAMOILLE COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING - DRIVEN BY VERY WARM PBL TEMPERATURES AND ORORGAPHIC FORCING - HAVE DISSIPATED WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. WILL SEE SCATTERED MID- UPR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 22-24C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S (WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED WIND FIELD. NOTING 20-25 KTS AT SLK AROUND 900MB LEVEL BY 06Z...SO SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TO MITIGATE NOCTURNAL FOG POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 244 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL FRONT/DEW POINT BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BRINGING A QUICK PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BE 12-16Z ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK...16-19Z IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 18-22Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO EARLY FOR SEVERE. CURRENT MODELS INDICATING ROUGHLY 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z FROM THE CHAMPLAIN EASTWARD...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT. WIND SHEAR IS MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SO PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION...AN OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE IS NOT FORECAST AT BTV...WITH HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 80S. PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VERMONT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS THE COOLER AIR WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING IN...AND WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BY FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOWEVER THE NEXT VORT IN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK BY EVENING AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WIND FIELD WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE QUITE STRONG...SO A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAINLY 75-85F. THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 312 AM EDT THURSDAY...THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OPERATIONAL RUNS AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL FEATURE A SLOWLY EVOLVING AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WITH A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE AS FAST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MODEST AT BEST, TYPICAL UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS. IN GENERAL THE BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS FURTHEST INROADS SOUTH. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR/BR VISIBILITIES AT KSLK AND KPBG VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 14-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY TREND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WITH TURBULENCE/WIND FROM KPBG/KBTV AND POINTS EAST. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS TO CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 21Z. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z, THEN SOUTHERLY FROM 6-12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM 12Z ONWARD, TRENDING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 12Z SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/IFR FOG MAINLY AT MPV/SLK. 12Z SAT ONWARD: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG

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