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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY.
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL
ONLY HAVE THE SHOWER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT SO NO NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.
THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...TONIGHT STARTS OUR FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD
IN AWHILE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
WELL. THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THUS WE WILL BE APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY INTACT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING WHICH BEGINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SAID HEAT...BUT BOTH SHOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW
ALOFT TRENDS MORE WESTERLY GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME DAILY INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AS USUALLY IS THE CASE ON FORECAST
DAYS 6-7...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY INDIVIDUAL FEATURES SO HAVE
JUST PLAYED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NOW.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING KMSS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE WITH PLENTY MORE UPSTREAM AS WELL. ONLY
CLEAR AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHICH HAS LED TO SOME BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AT KMSS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA AFTER 14Z...BUT LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV WITH CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAINING VFR. AFTER 18Z...SHOULD SEE
A SHARP DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH ALL TERMINALS SKC BY 00Z EXCEPT FOR KRUT WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH DAY...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF