-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 190219
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW EVENING SHOWERS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION MAY SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE HUMID AND SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1008 PM EDT TUESDAY...A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR MOST TONIGHT. PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL GRADUALLY TREND MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS MORNING
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINES.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT.
EXPECTING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
30S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. FOG
FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...OUTSTANDING STRETCH OF WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK (WED/THU) AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY ATOP THE
REGION. THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME
SHALLOW DEPTH FAIR WX CUMULUS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LIGHT.
AVERAGED 18-00Z MODEL BLENDED 925 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 68 TO 74 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN 2-4 DEGREES MILDER 71 TO 77 OR
SO BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 38 TO 48 WED NIGHT...THOUGH WITH
CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE EFFECTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT INFLUENCE. MODELS MAINTAIN
THE IDEA THAT A WEAK/DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE INTL BORDER BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. KEPT WITH THE
IDEA OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER JUST A
TAD FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS A TAD MILDER AS LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...GENERALLY WARM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MAX TEMPS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
70S AND TREND TOWARDS MID 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN TEMPS WILL
TREND FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. INITIALLY REGION WILL BE
UNDER INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU BRISK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE SMALL FEATURES AT THIS POINT...THEREFORE
HAVE A LOT OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LARGE AND HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THICKNESSES APPROACH 588. THINK THAT WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT TIMING AND LOCATION
THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND NORTH WINDS 7-10 KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN
06-12Z. 2-METER DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED 10-12F COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY EVENING...SO THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS AT MPV
MAKES PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH
DAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT KSLK/KMPV.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES