Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 152303 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 603 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough and surface low passing northwest of the region will bring scattered snow showers to the North Country late tonight into Saturday morning along with a light accumulation. A brief ridge of high pressure will bring a quiet end to the weekend on Sunday, before the pattern becomes active again next week with several chances for precipitation, especially on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 603 PM EST Friday...Overall forecast in good shape and no real big changes needed at this time. Only tweak was to confine any precipitation to Saint Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York for now before shortwave trough moves in and spreads precipitation eastward over the remainder of the area. Previous Discussion... The forecast remains on track for a light accumulating snow across the region late tonight through Saturday morning as an upper trough and weak surface low tracking through the Great Lakes this afternoon swing just northwest and over the region. Low/mid level southwest flow ahead of the trough has aided in the development of a lake effect snow band in the lee of Lake Ontario northward up the St. Lawrence River this afternoon with surface obs and area webcams showing on/off snow showers at Ogdensburg and Potsdam over the past few hours. Expect this activity to continue until the trough shifts the flow west/southwest after midnight where at that point snow showers will become more widely scattered across the northern Adirondacks and then points eastward towards sunrise, especially over the northwest upslope favored areas. By mid-morning Saturday activity should be diminishing with area snow totals generally a dusting to 2" with perhaps 3" in the lake effect. Saturday evening and overnight a brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region with clearing skies and light winds aiding in another good night of radiational cooling. Temps will once again fall below normal levels with lows early Sunday morning in the single digits above and below zero.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 409 PM EST Friday...Sunday will start off mostly sunny and cold with a weak ridge building along the eastern seaboard. Daytime highs will top out in the mid to upper teens over higher elevations and reach the low 20s in valley locations. Mid to upper-level moisture will increase throughout the day, so expect mostly sunny skies in the morning to become party to mostly cloudy by the evening. Sunday night, clouds will continue to increase from west to east as a warm front lifts through the area from the southwest. As winds gain an increasingly southerly component, a slightly warmer air mass will be advected in. Low temperatures will be moderated by the warmer air moving in and the increased cloud cover overnight. Nevertheless, will still see fairly chilly lows in the upper single digits to mid teens across the area as the bulk of the warmest air won`t move in until late Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 409 PM EST Friday....The extended forecast will continue to feature an active weather pattern as a series of disturbances quickly move through the area amid strengthening upper-level flow. Monday will be considerably warmer than Sunday, with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s expected throughout the forecast area. Increasing isentropic ascent will support light snow showers across northern New York and Vermont Monday as the warm front pushes through. Moisture will be fairly limited however, especially in the low-levels, and snow accumulations in most areas should stay under an inch from Sunday night through Monday evening. Northern New York will see a little more snow than Vermont as moisture from the lake feeds into the system. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as warmer air advects in under southwesterly flow. An approaching shortwave will bring the next focus for precipitation Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. At this time, it`s looking like enough warm air will be in place to support fairly widespread rain out this system. The exception to this will be higher elevations, which could cling on to some snow or a rain/snow mix Tuesday night. A cold front moving down from Canada will bring a return of the colder more seasonal temperatures by mid week, with highs in the 20s to 30s expected Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for snow showers will persist through Friday as weak waves move through the upper-level flow. Next weekend looks to feature more active weather, however models have yet to come into any sort of agreement on the evolution of the next system. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Overall conditions through 00Z will remain VFR with a mix of VFR and MVFR thereafter as an upper disturbance brings periods of snow showers to the region. Most persistent MVFR will be at KMSS and KSLK through 12Z where local IFR is likely at KSLK in light snow after 06Z. After 12Z improving conditions back towards VFR is expected with snow showers diminishing. Winds light south/southwest turn westerly tomorrow at 5-10 knots. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Evenson/Lahiff SHORT TERM...RSD LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Lahiff

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