Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 262340
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Summer like conditions will persist across the North Country
through the Memorial Day weekend, featuring well above normal
temperatures, more humid conditions, and the threat for afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 736 PM EDT Thursday...relatively quiet night across our
region with activity from earlier dissipating into a few sprinkles
per latest radar trends. based on radar data have trimmed back
pops accordingly...but will still mention slight chance
overnight...based on warm front and additional moisture/energy
arriving after midnight. otherwise...updated to remove mention of
thunder and decrease areal coverage of pops. cloud cover
grids...along with temps look reasonable based on current
previous discussion below...
Lots of interesting features out there this afternoon with the
current surface and upper air analysis showing a mid/upper level
ridge cresting over the region, a stalled frontal boundary
extending from the Great Lakes through just south of the Mohawk
Valley to southern New England, and a few very nondescript
shortwave troughs upstream supporting some convective development
coming into western New York. As expected some isolated convection
has begun to develop over the Adirondacks, and moving on into
tonight, the main forecast idea will be that any convective
development over the Adirondacks will dissipate this evening with
the loss of surface instability due to daytime heating, with any
additional convection firing over Western New York this afternoon
riding along the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary to our
south. Best chances for precipitation, albeit low, during the
overnight should be along our southern tier zones accordingly, and
mainly through midnight or a couple hours beyond, with generally
dry conditions to the north. Mid clouds become more abundant
through the night area-wide with very light surface winds, leading
to mild overnight lows ranging from the 50s in the Adirondacks and
Central/Northeast Vermont, to lower 60s elsewhere, which are a
good 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned
upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection
to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts
northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE
appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where
I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a
few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps
bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the
80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern
Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll
fall just short in the upper 80s.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off
Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early
Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies,
ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and
generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to
Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal
throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday
as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on
Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week.
Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east
into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the
North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be
expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure
system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for
precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a
cold front moves through the region.
High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the
northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of
the week with generally dry conditions.
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the period with isolated/scattered afternoon shra/tsra locally and
briefing reducing cigs/vsby to MVFR/IFR. Through most of the
overnight, dry conditions should prevail with mid clouds becoming
BKN-OVC. Winds light and variable.
Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to
occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame.
Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016
thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington
VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of
90F was April 17, 2002.
Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as
follows: 5/27 5/28
BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978
MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978
St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978
Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978