Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 281930 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT AND A SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. CHANGES ARE IN STORE THOUGH FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN WITH US THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE CONTINUED...ALBEIT WEAK...NORTH FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 251 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE DAY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE. SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THAN TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 47 TO 57...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LARGE CAPPING INVERSION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY OVERALL WITH SUN FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO MARKEDLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO 1.5-1.8" AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. THUS WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY NIGHT GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL EXPECTATION FOR THE SUNDAY & MONDAY PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS & T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND, MOST NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY. STILL A FEW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY, THEN IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAILS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO READ ON FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS... SUNDAY: DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL IN PLACE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSING IN ON 2.0". THAT`S ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND THAT INDICATES SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON OVERALL AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, AND AS A RESULT, THEY ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND, AND THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE, THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A MODEST AMOUNT JUST BASED ON A VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER (DEWPOINTS WAY UP IN THE 60S). BOTTOM LINE, STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN TO EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL PLAY OUT. ANTICIPATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AT ANY TIME, SO THE 60% OR SO POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SHOULDN`T RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION THE WHOLE DAY, BUT STILL THE IDEA OF HAVING THE BACKUP INDOOR PLAN IS A GOOD ONE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP NEAR 17C, WHICH WITH FULL SUN WOULD GIVE US UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDS WILL GREATLY CUT BACK ON THAT POTENTIAL, SO MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FINE. SHORT WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, SO SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VERY MUGGY WITH THOSE HIGH DEWPOINTS, SO LOWS WON`T BE ALL THAT LOW -- MID TO UPPER 60S. MONDAY: STILL FAIRLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS, BUT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, WE`LL HAVE A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOP. THUS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY. ONLY PAINTING IN 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WHICH FOR THE OPTIMISTS MEANS A 60-70% OF NO RAIN! 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C, WHICH SHOULD GIVE US ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUN). STILL HUMID MONDAY NIGHT, SO ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER AT NIGHT. TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND WEAK FRONT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SCENARIO, THOUGH NEITHER SHOWS ANYTHING TOO STRONG. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS, SO HAVE 40-50% CHANCES. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL WARM (15-16C), BUT AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS A BIT UP IN THE AIR. WILL AGAIN GO WITH LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: MODELS GREATLY DIVERAGE AT THIS POINT. GFS IS BACK ON "IT`S GONNA RAIN AGAIN WEDNESDAY", WHILE THE EURO IS DRY. LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THIS TURNS INTO THE BLOB OF PRECIPITATION FOR US. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE STEADY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WENT MUCH MORE TOWARD THAT MODEL. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF RAIN, THE EURO HAS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, MEANING COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FOR EXAMPLE AT 850MB THE EURO HAS 12C VS 16C ON THE GFS. THAT`S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN UPPER 70S AND UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. GFS ALSO HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S VERSUS 50S FOR THE ECMWF. THURSDAY IS A SIMILAR SITUATION, AS THE GFS HAS RESIDUAL SHOWERS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. SO STAYED DRY. GETS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AS NOW THE GFS IS FINALLY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THAT MUCH WARMER AIR FROM CONTINUING HEAT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL US STARTS TO GET IN HERE. THE EURO NOW HAS THE 16C AT 850MB (OR UPPER 80S AT THE SURFACE) COMPARED TO 14C AT 850MB (LOWER 80S) FOR THE GFS. I KEPT WITH THE LOWER 80S AT THIS POINT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BTWN 3500FT AND 5000FT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OUT OF THE NW THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BTWN 3-8KTS. THERE WILL BE A LGT LOW LVL JET AROUND 15 KTS AT 1-2KFT...KEEPING WINDS FROM BCMG CALM THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. AROUND 06Z...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO CALM OR NEAR CALM...COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LIFR- VLIFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KSLK...WITH IFR BR/FG AT KMPV...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. COME FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LGT GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIDGE OVERHEAD. FEW STRATOCUMULUS PSBL IN THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTN. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI-12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. 12Z SAT ONWARD...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI LONG TERM...NASH AVIATION...KGM

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