Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 110951 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT. THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. 12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. 12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...NEILES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.