Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 262340 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Summer like conditions will persist across the North Country through the Memorial Day weekend, featuring well above normal temperatures, more humid conditions, and the threat for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 736 PM EDT Thursday...relatively quiet night across our region with activity from earlier dissipating into a few sprinkles per latest radar trends. based on radar data have trimmed back pops accordingly...but will still mention slight chance overnight...based on warm front and additional moisture/energy arriving after midnight. otherwise...updated to remove mention of thunder and decrease areal coverage of pops. cloud cover grids...along with temps look reasonable based on current conditions. previous discussion below... Lots of interesting features out there this afternoon with the current surface and upper air analysis showing a mid/upper level ridge cresting over the region, a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes through just south of the Mohawk Valley to southern New England, and a few very nondescript shortwave troughs upstream supporting some convective development coming into western New York. As expected some isolated convection has begun to develop over the Adirondacks, and moving on into tonight, the main forecast idea will be that any convective development over the Adirondacks will dissipate this evening with the loss of surface instability due to daytime heating, with any additional convection firing over Western New York this afternoon riding along the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary to our south. Best chances for precipitation, albeit low, during the overnight should be along our southern tier zones accordingly, and mainly through midnight or a couple hours beyond, with generally dry conditions to the north. Mid clouds become more abundant through the night area-wide with very light surface winds, leading to mild overnight lows ranging from the 50s in the Adirondacks and Central/Northeast Vermont, to lower 60s elsewhere, which are a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Friday begins relatively calm and mild under the aforementioned upper ridge, and much like today expect some afternoon convection to break out as the stalled front to our south overnight shifts northeastward as a warm front. Axis of best instability and CAPE appears to be from the Adirondacks eastward through Vermont, where I`m not thinking we`ll see any real strong storms, but certainly a few heavy downpours and a few strikes of lightning. 925mb temps bump up to around +20-22C supporting highs ranging through the 80s, locally warmest in the Champlain, St. Lawrence and Southern Connecticut River valleys pushing towards 90, but I think we`ll fall just short in the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms taper off Friday night with brief period of surface high pressure into early Saturday. Min temperatures will be mild in mostly cloudy skies, ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Saturday will see potential for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms in temperatures nearing 90 in the broad valleys and generally mid 80s elsewhere. Saturday night will be similar to Friday night with regard to warm temperatures and drying trend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 339 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures remain above normal throughout the period, with most notable change occurring Monday as max temperatures decrease from being in the low to upper 80s on Sunday to the mid 70s to low 80s for the work week. Throughout the day Sunday, ridge of high pressure slides east into the Atlantic, increasing southerly flow and moisture over the North Country. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be expected as we enter the warm sector of surface low pressure system over eastern Ontario. This system will keep chance for precipitation Sunday night through late Monday/Monday night as a cold front moves through the region. High pressure builds at the surface and aloft across the northeast and mid-atlantic states Tuesday through the middle of the week with generally dry conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with isolated/scattered afternoon shra/tsra locally and briefing reducing cigs/vsby to MVFR/IFR. Through most of the overnight, dry conditions should prevail with mid clouds becoming BKN-OVC. Winds light and variable. Outlook 18Z Friday through Tuesday... Mainly VFR with a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame. && .CLIMATE... Friday and Saturday will see the warmest temperatures of 2016 thus far. The average first date of 90F or higher for Burlington VT is June 20th. The earliest occurrence in the calendar year of 90F was April 17, 2002. Record maximum temperatures for Friday 5/27 and Saturday 5/28 are as follows: 5/27 5/28 BTV - Burlington 91 in 1944 92 in 1978 MPV - Montpelier 88 in 1960 88 in 1978 MSS - Massena 89 in 1978 89 in 1978 St Johnsbury 89 in 1914 93 in 1978 Mt Mansfield 76 in 1978 77 in 1978 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Lahiff CLIMATE...KGM

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