Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 202341
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017
Rather quiet weather continues for the North Country through
the weekend with cloudy skies, mild temps and a chance of some
wintry mix. Next week brings a more active period of weather
Monday night into Tuesday with another snow/wintry mixed/rain
system impacting the area. After this system, temperatures
remain mild to go along with another couple chances for some
rain/snow showers through the later half of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 641 PM EST Friday...Persistent low level cloud cover
trapped under a subsidence inversion remains over the North
Country. This will keep temperatures mild tonight, similar to
last night. A weak impulse with some very light and spotty
precipitation will move in from the southwest overnight. There
is some concern with the potential for some -fzra/-fzdz during
the early morning hours on Sat for parts of the St Lawrence
Valley, the Adirondacks and the Southern Greens as temps dip
below freezing. That being said, warm air aloft that moves in is
also rather weak, coupled with low and sparse QPF amounts
across the area looks to have very minor impact overall for the
morning. FRAM model looked to be a bit over done, so after
scaling back, the Dacks look to see only about 0.01"-0.02" with
other locations seeing even less than that.
Moving through Saturday, temps look to warm and while the
slight chance for precipitation continues, most looks to be rain
in the valleys, snow in the higher elevations and a small
window again for freezing precipitation for the Eastern slope of
the Greens right at sunrise before temps warm there too and any
chance switches to rain. The airmass overall has little chance
and will see overnight temps in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s and
then see highs in the lower 40`s to upper 30`s for Saturday.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EST Friday...Saturday night will see ridging
return for the second half of the weekend with rather quiet
conditions for Saturday night and into Sunday. An abundance of
low level moisture looks to again become trapped under a low
level inversion leading to cloudy conditions Saturday night
through Sunday. Late Sunday night will see the edge of next
system move in as snow begins to move into the area at the very
end of the period.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 PM EST Friday...Active period of weather is expected
Monday into Tuesday with upper trough lifting up across the
region during this time period. Thermal profile will be very
interesting with high pressure building down into the region
Monday morning and bringing colder air down into the lower
levels. However...throughout the day low level thickness values
will be a bit on the warm side. This may set the stage for some
mixed precipitation at the onset of this event with snow and
sleet before seeing a trend towards rain on Tuesday. Still some
timing issues with the onset of precipitation as it appears it
will be more in the Monday night into Tuesday time period. For
now have kept things snow or rain for now...but system will need
to be monitored for sleet or freezing rain potential.
Strengthening pressure gradient will also be taking place Monday
into Monday night from the east and southeast. This will create
some downsloping conditions to limit precipitation...but also
increase the potential for stronger winds due to the southeast
component allowing for some gap winds. Upper trough lifts
northeast of the area Tuesday night allowing for precipitation
to taper off. Flow aloft quickly becomes southwest on Wednesday
with general upper trough gradually sagging down into the
region. This will keep a chance of showers around for the
remainder of the week...but temperatures are still in the 30s so
looking at some rain or snow showers. Eventually some cooler
air moves in right at the end of the week.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through
the next 24 hours. Low level moisture trapped under inversion is
creating widespread MVFR cigs with a weak impulse likely
bringing IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys with slight chance for -FZDZ at
MSS and SLK after 08Z into Saturday mid-morning hours.
Elsewhere, expect MVFR conditions to prevail, with MPV
deteriorating to IFR mainly between 08z-14Z.
As the aforementioned impulse weakens and exits NEwd during the
mid-day hours Saturday, cigs may briefly improve but remain
MVFR during the late afternoon. Heading into Saturday evening,
MVFR flight conditions look to persist, possibly deteriorating
Outlook 00Z Sunday through Wednesday...Extensive cloud cover
will persist through much of Sunday with a continuation of the
MVFR/IFR ceilings and VFR/MVFR visibilities. Widespread
precipitation will eventually move into the region later Monday
and especially Tuesday for continued MVFR and IFR ceilings and
in this case MVFR and IFR visibilities as well. Watch for breezy
southeast downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT. Brief
period of improving conditions possible early Wednesday, before
bout of precipitation arrives for the latter half of Wednesday.