Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 230206 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1006 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1006 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AS OF 10 PM. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT CONTINUE TO WANE WITH ALL AREAS ESSENTIALLY RAIN FREE BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIOR DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER NEEDED AS OF 715 PM TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ALSO FELT FOG/MIST WILL COULD BE PREVALENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TONIGHT SO INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE...INCLUDING THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. RAINFALL/SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ABATE AND LESSEN IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE 8 O`CLOCK HOUR. WE DID SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GULLYWASHERS OUT ACROSS ST LAWRENCE COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER DESPITE ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY. CASE IN POINT OUR OBSERVER OUT IN GOUVERNEUR REPORTING 1.70 INCHES BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM EARLIER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA. CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT. OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE THE COMMON RESULT. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 352 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED PERIOD THE FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI BASIN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN US. QUIET WEATHER DURING THIS TIME, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MID WEEK GFS DEVELOPS HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER EASTERN US AND TROUGH TO WEST, WHILE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT. AS A RESULT GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS QUITE A BIT WARMER. GFS 850 MB TEMPS UP TO 17F ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...SO FELT COMFORTABLE BUMPING UP WEDS MAX TEMPS OVER SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. THIS ALSO MATCHED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN TEMPS...IS LOWER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES IS TAKEN BY THE GFS TO DIG AN EAST COAST TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT AND TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT GFS GIVES ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH WHILE THE ECMWF COOLS US DOWN ON THURSDAY. HEDGED A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TOWARD THE GFS ON THURSDAY...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAXES THURS OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 80S. BOTH MODELS BRING POPS UP INTO CHC CATEGORY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE FRONT DESPITE DISSIMILARITIES AT 500 MB. ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF THE FRONT VARIES...BUT USING A BROAD BRUSH IN THE FAR END OF THE EXTENDED YIELDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. AFTER 13Z...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...AFTER 13Z VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...HANSON AVIATION...EVENSON/HANSON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.