Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 261101 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 701 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Expect dry weather for much of the day today with above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. An upper level disturbance will move across the North Country tonight and with increasing moisture...the threat for showers and a few thunderstorms will exist. The Memorial Day weekend will then feature above normal temperatures...more humid conditions...and the threat for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 701 AM EDT Thursday...Going forecast in good shape with only some tweaks to current conditions. Otherwise...weak ridging aloft and at the surface should keep most of the North Country dry today. There will be some high clouds this morning...otherwise expect a good deal of sunshine along with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. These readings are about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Eventually the flow aloft backs to the west and southwest as a shortwave trough moves into the region. This along with increasing moisture suggests the potential for some isolated convection late in the day across parts of northern New York. For tonight the shortwave trough continues to move across the area and moisture deepens over the area for increasing chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. Shortwave trough moves east of the area after midnight and this should help decrease the areal coverage of the convection from west to east after midnight. Not expecting anything strong or severe with rainfall amounts generally less than a quarter inch. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s...which are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Warm air advection on Friday behind warm front which continues to move northward. Should have showers with some thunderstorms during the afternoon and very warm max temperatures. Cape values will be in the 1500-2000 range, especially in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valleys. Increasing PWAT values through the day also with possible elevated mixed layer reaching our forecast area as well. Max temps should be in the upper 80s to around 90, our hottest day of the year yet. Showers and thunderstorms will die down Friday night and temperatures will remain mild, mainly mid 60s. Region will remain under warm ridge on Saturday and another warm day is on tap, perhaps even a tad warmer than Friday, upper 80s to around 90. Once again will have Capes reach over 1500 by Saturday afternoon and think there may be some showers and thunderstorms once again. Without a significant surface feature storms will mainly be fueled by warm temperatures creating instability. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Generally more of the same for the extended portion of the forecast with above normal temperatures continue and chance for afternoon convection most days. Will remain in warm unstable environment from Saturday night through early Monday. Finally have a surface feature crossing the area Monday in the form of a cold front during the afternoon and evening. This feature brings the highest pops and have likely mentioned at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the entire period. Expect only mid and high level clouds during the day today with light and variable winds. Deeper moisture moves in late in the day and especially tonight which will help lower ceilings and increase the chances for showers. Look for the showers to move from southwest to northeast...moving into northern New York after 22z and across Vermont after 01z. Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday... 06z Friday onward...mainly VFR, though with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Saturday through Monday time frame. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Evenson/JMG

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