Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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352 FXUS61 KBTV 242328 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 728 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure area will move out of the Ohio valley slowly tracking northeastward, and bring more widespread rainfall to the North Country Thursday afternoon through Friday. Clouds, rain, and cool east winds off the Atlantic will keep highs in the 60s Thursday, and 55 to 60 on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 710 PM EDT Wednesday...Isolated low-topped showers that developed across the nrn Adirondacks and Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom this afternoon are generally dissipating at 23Z. Last remaining echoes per mosaic composite reflectivity are across Orleans county east of Newport. May see a few hundreths of an inch before activity dissipates. Otherwise, generally a quiet night expected with early AM lows expected in the mid-50s for the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Will see lows in the upr 40s to lower 50s across the nrn Adirondacks and VT east of the Greens. Winds will generally continue light sely overnight as sfc ridge over eastern Maine weakens and low pressure pushes into the upper OH river valley region. Will see increasing mid- upper level clouds associated with this upstream low pressure system during the overnight hrs, but with associated warm frontal rains expected to hold off until the daylight hrs on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...During the day Thursday, vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly track from the Ohio river valley Northeastward towards our CWA. Light rain will spread southwest to northeast across our forecast area, especially after 15z. Low pressure system then tracks off the coast of New England overnight and into the Gulf of Maine on Friday. Two areas of deeper low level moisture will miss us, one to our Northwest and one to our Southeast. Have lowered rainfall totals a bit, mainly a third of an inch to an inch of rain is expected. GFS is showing an evident dry slot moving across our area from 18z through about 03-06z. During this time will see some winds mix down to the surface on strong low level east/southeast jet, strong Easterly flow will cause downsloping in Rutland County as well as Eastern Addison and Eastern Chittenden counties. Have issued a wind advisory, please see NPW. As low pushes east off the New England coast Friday best forcing goes with it and precipitation will become more showery. Temperatures will remain mild through the period, generally 50s at night and 60s during the day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Wednesday...The synoptic pattern will be shifting towards a more pleasant weekend as vertically stacked low pressure system will be pulling off the New England coastline. This leaves a few scattered showers over the eastern portion of Vermont as the moisture will be decreasing through the evening hours. The more welcomed portion of the forecast will be the high pressure that builds in for Memorial Day weekend. As ridging occurs at the surface there may be a stray shower or two but otherwise we can expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies with a few breaks in the that areal coverage. The latest trends in the guidance has been to slow down how quickly the next system is to move into the region. In the broad sense, an upper level low pressure system will track west of the Great Lakes and lift a warm front through the North Country and then later on will swing a cold front through. The timing on this has been even further delayed such that we may get through much of Sunday with quiet weather and nice conditions to be outdoors or perhaps going for a run. Towards Sunday evening and into Monday morning, expect that warm front to lift north and bring a chance for scattered showers into Monday. By Monday mid-morning early afternoon a pre- frontal trough will swing through with shortwave energy aloft and bring showers with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. The GFS depicts decent instability with marginal elevated instability along with decent 0-6km shear and moderate lapse rates. So the idea of some showers with embedded thunderstorms looks good based on the 12z guidance timing. Heading into the rest of the mid week we should see a break on Tuesday before the actual front swings through on Wednesday renewing our chances for showers. Temps through the period will be depend on the timing of the fronts but the general idea is upper 60s to lower 70s for high and lows starting off in the upper 40s over the weekend and gradually warming to the low to mid 50s by mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 00Z Friday...VFR through much of the period, with conditions deteriorating after 16Z Thursday. VFR expected until 16Z Thursday with SCT to occasionally broken mid to high cloud cover generally above 070-100 AGL. Winds light, trending east to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots overnight. After 12Z Thursday east/southeast winds trend modest and gusty into the 15 to 25 kt range with steadier light rains arriving from the south in the 17-21Z time frame with conditions lowering to a mix of ovc VFR/MVFR late. Of particular concern will be the potential for strong downsloping southeasterly flow along the immediate western slopes of the central/southern Green Mtns. Gusts into the 35 to 45 kt range will be possible from 18Z onward in this area, and will likely affect the KRUT terminal. While localized, moderate to severe turbulence will also be possible in this area. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. Localized gusts to 45 kts at KRUT through 03Z. Rain/showers likely. Friday: VFR/MVFR. Rain/showers likely. Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA. Memorial Day: VFR. Chance SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for VTZ011-017>019. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Banacos/Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG

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