Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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358 FXUS61 KBTV 050902 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 402 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, A SMALL PORTION OF WHICH MAY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN VT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTEDTHIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 AM EST FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY WEST WITH PRECIPITATION PROGGED TO AFFECT EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DRY WEATHER AND ONLY THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AFTER LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND PERUSING THE 00Z HI-RES MODEL SUITE I DID FEEL IT PRUDENT TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME LIGHT MIXED RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, SOME MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDSOR AND FAR EASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES. TYPICAL WITH ANAFRONTAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE PCPN SHIELD WITH DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WINNING OUT IN AREAS WEST OF THE GREENS AND NORTH OF ROUTE 4. AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST THIS AFTERNOON, PCPN WILL END SOUTHEAST AND CLOUDS WILL THIN OVER TIME LEAVING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST BY SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AREA WIDE UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BY TONIGHT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVING WAY TO THICKER CLOUDS LATER AT NIGHT AS FLOW BACKS TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND ALLOWS GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO TRICKLE INTO THE REGION. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS LIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY...FOR MUCH OF VERMONT SATURDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET, HOWEVER, FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX RIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTER EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE EAST TOMORROW MORNING AND MID LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CROSS LAKE ONTARIO I ANTICIPATE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH BELOW THE SATURATED DGZ WILL ONLY BE 70-80% SO DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT TOTAL SNOW. AS THE MAIN PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO WAS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS NOW KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THAT WELL TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOESN`T TURN NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND SO I STILL EXPECT THE GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT IT WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN AFFECT CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHWARD. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND THEN BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT A SHARP COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S DURING THE DAY AND RAPIDLY COOLING TO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY....ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT EXACTLY HOW THINGS DEVELOP IS STILL A LITTLE MURKY. USING A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN ROTATING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE INTENSIFYING AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. NEITHER REALLY POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT INTO A STRONG COASTAL AS THE VERTICAL STACKING IS POOR. AS SUCH SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY HOWEVER WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A POTENT SOURCE FOR ENERGY SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR A LONG DURATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, TRENDING MAINLY SKC IN THE 20-00Z TIME RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN 6-12 KTS WITH OCCNL MODEST GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT VERMONT TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ABATE LATE. OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06-00Z SUN...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SUN-18Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18Z SUN-12Z MON...VFR/HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MON-00Z TUE...VFR AT VT TERMINALS AND AT KPBG. SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS AT KMSS/KSLK MONDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z TUE-00Z WED...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...DEAL LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...JMG/HANSON

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