Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 252341 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to build southward out of Canada this afternoon. A clear and cold night is expected overnight, with low temperatures widely varying from the single digits to the upper teens above zero. Unsettled and warmer weather returns for Sunday and Monday as developing low pressure over the central U.S. pushes the front back north Sunday afternoon into Monday, with periods of rain, snow and mixed precipitation expected through mid-week. A winter weather advisory has been raised for light freezing rain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 709 PM EDT Saturday...Challenging low temp forecast tonight as 1037mb high pres located over southern Hudson Bay builds into the North Country. This has resulted in rapidly clearing skies this evening with northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots and modest low level cold air advection. Expecting a sharp low level thermal inversion to develop in the deeper/protected valleys allowing for winds to decouple and temps to quickly fall...especially NEK/SLK. Have noted 18z MAVSLK is now -1F...so based on this info and very deep dry layer with ideal cooling conditions...with fresh snow pack...have cut temps across the dacks/nek back to around 0f. Elsewhere...some northeast winds at mss may keep temps up in the mid teens slv and in the cpv. Sharp thermal inversion will result in the coldest air temps in the deepest protected valleys with midslopes/summits holding in the mid/upper teens. Otherwise...captured latest clearing trends and placed into sky grids and made some adjustments to the dewpts. Rest of forecast in good shape. Previous discussion below: As high pressure continues to ridge into the North Country out of Canada this afternoon and evening skies will clear from North to South. Clear skies, light winds and the late season cold snowpack overnight will bring about another cold overnight period, generally single digits and teens. Some high clouds will try to advance from the southwest towards early morning. The overnight period will be dry. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 PM EDT Saturday....More active weather returns for the short term portion of the forecast. Have raised a winter weather advisory for Western Essex County NY, and from the spine of the Greens Eastward for light ice accumulations. On Sunday precipitation will begin from the southwest and spread across our forecast area during the afternoon hours. Precipitation should hold off till after 18z and by that time temperatures should be warm enough across most of the region to just expect rain at that point. Temperatures should warm pretty quickly with some morning sun across our northern zones and warm air advection all day as low pressure system lifts Northward into Great Lakes region. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower 40s across almost the entire north country. The only exception will be Western Essex county NY where there will be a threat for some freezing rain. Have gone warmer than most MOS guidance for Sunday night due to clouds and precipitation, as well as warm air advection across the region, but still looks cold enough especially east of the Greens to cause some icing issues. Sunday night low pressure system continues to push eastward towards our area, with more precipitation expected. Have some categorical pops mentioned overnight and then continuing into Monday with a front lifting across our area. Warmer air aloft moves gradually eastward over the top of the shallow layer of colder air, bringing with it the threat for mixed precipitation especially east of the Greens. Colder air is tough to scour out there. It does not take very much icing to impact travel. By about 15z Monday warm air advection should be strong enough to have our entire area raise about freezing with lower to mid 40s for afternoon high temperatures. The low pressure system will be very slow to push east of our region, and think there will still be some showers around on Monday night, but temperatures should remain warm enough to preclude any further issues. Mixed precipitation always presents a complicated forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 359 PM EDT Saturday...A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, with mainly rain showers expected, so have gone with mainly likely pops. Expecting rain showers to continue into Tuesday night, before changing to snow showers late Tuesday night, mainly over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. A chance of rain and snow showers will continue into Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Thursday and Friday, with fair and dry weather expected. ECMWF and GFS models showing differences for Friday night and Saturday, with the GFS model having a high pressure area over the region with fair and dry weather. The ECMWF model brings a low pressure area up through the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday, so have stuck with the superblend pops and will have a chance of rain and snow showers for Friday night and Saturday. Given model differences for Friday night and Saturday, forecaster confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Low clouds continue to erode around the north country this evening, with most IFR/MVFR ceilings scattering out right now. Skies will continue to clear out overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds southeast from Canada overnight. VFR conditions will remain over the region until very late as MVFR ceilings and precipitation begins to move in from the southwest after 20Z. Outlook 00Z Monday through Thursday... 00Z Monday through 00Z Thursday...periods of mixed precipitation, though mainly rain with cigs/vsby variable from IFR to MVFR. Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday. 00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...Mainly VFR, except for some scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-017>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for NYZ034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/MV

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