Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 051411
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
911 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016
A weakening warm front lifts across the North Country today
with widespread light snowfall through midday. The snow is
expected to result in some travel slowdowns during the morning
commute. Weather will remain active as we move through the work
week with several additional systems bringing renewed chances of
light rain and snow.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 912 AM EST Monday...Radar shows band of moderate snow
with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per lifting across northern
ny/vt attm. This poorly timed band of snow caused plenty of
problems with the morning commute across the North Country.
Conditions will improve as snow becomes lighter and mainly
terrain focused by this afternoon. Total snow accumulations
general 1 to 3 inches...but some isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts
possible across northern NY into parts of northern VT...given
fluff factor. Have one report from our media friends of 5.5
inches near Fairfax...which looks reasonable given the duration
the heavier band has stayed across northern VT.
Water vapor shows well defined short wave energy lifting across
northern NY now...with sharp drying behind this energy over
central NY. The combination of drying aloft and best lift
associated with warm air advection moving away from our cwa will
result in lighter snow and precip becoming more scattered in
nature by late this morning. Also...helping to weaken snowfall
across the cpv will be developing southwest downslope flow of 30
to 40 knots per latest KTYX VAD profile at 925 and 850mb.
Still expecting another couple hours of steady light snow...but
additional accumulations an inch or two at most. All these
elements are covered very well in current forecast. Temps with
slowly climb to near 30f champlain and saint lawrence valleys
with mid/upper 20s in the mountains.
Previous forecast below.
Band of moderate snow crossing our area and lowering
visibilities under 1 mile at times. Ceilings are also dropping
below one thousand feet. Pretty quick burst of snow with
conditions improving not too far behind this band. Still feel
that 1-3" is a good forecast for snowfall totals. Have issued an
SPS to try to highlight dangerous driving conditions this
morning. Previous discussion follows.
Low pressure system will track Northeastward through Saint
Lawrence valley today. Warm front currently lifting across the
area and light snow has begun in Saint Lawrence county,
spreading Northeastward across the rest of the forecast area.
Precipitation is still on track to reach the Champlain valley by
about 6 or 7 am. There is potential for a messy Monday morning
commute with onset of precipitation right at commute time. Aside
from snow accumulating on the roads, visibility may also be
reduced in areas of heavier snow. As early as 10 or 11 am snow
will become more upslope influenced with the flow turning to
Northwesterly. Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1-3"
range with some isolated higher amounts. Drivers should exercise
caution this morning and allow extra time to reach their
destinations. Skies will remain cloudy through the afternoon
hours, with some lingering flurries or light snow showers
expected, especially across the higher terrain. Stuck with
blended guidance for high temps on Monday with highs in the
lower to mid 30s in the valleys and upper 20`s in higher
elevations. Winds look to remain light throughout the
period...initially light SE, shifting W-SW during the afternoon
hours once surface low and associated warm front move east of
our longitude. Precipitation will hang on the longest across the
higher elevations, but ending everywhere overnight. Still
plenty of clouds in place though, so temperatures will not drop
too drastically. With clouds in place temperatures will not drop
very much, just about 5 degrees from daytime max temps.
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Monday...A ridge of high pressure will be over
the north country on Tuesday. However, this will be a "dirty
high", as plenty of low level moisture will be over the region
on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies expected. On Tuesday night,
an upper shortwave will approach the region from the southwest.
Models in good agreement showing that precipitation will not
arrive into the region until after midnight Tuesday night.
Expecting some light snow to develop, along with some pockets of
light rain. Have gone with likely pops for late Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning. Precipitation will wind down late
Wednesday morning, and have lowered pops for Wednesday afternoon
to slight or low chance pops.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Monday...Wednesday night expecting mostly
cloudy skies across the region, with just some slight chance
pops for snow showers over a portions of the Adirondacks. A cold
front will move through the region late Wednesday night and
early Thursday. The north country will be under cold advection
from Thursday through Friday night. This will result in snow
showers across the region from Thursday through Friday night.
Have raised superblend pops to likely for Thursday and Friday
over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green
Mountains, as gusty northwest winds will generate upslope snow
showers over the Adirondacks and the western slopes of the Green
On Saturday, models show a ridge of high pressure will be over
the region Saturday and Saturday night, with fair and dry
weather expected. GFS and ECMWF models show a warm front
approaching the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley on
Sunday, so have gone a bit higher than superblend pops for snow
showers on Sunday, with over running warm air advection aloft
moving into the region.
.AVIATION /14Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Warm front approaching lifting across the
North Country early this morning with developing light snowfall
to all TAF locations. At BTV, light snow to continue through
about 17Z with 1-3" of snow accumulation expected, with minor
impact to airport ground operations. Anticipate IFR at all TAF
locations generally 11-18Z Monday, along with higher terrain
obscured. Light SE winds will shift light SW-W during the
afternoon and evening hours on Monday as the warm front shifts
to the north and east. Overall, surface winds AOB 10kts are
expected at all TAF locations thru the period. May see lingering
MVFR ceilings even as precipitation tapers to flurries/snow
showers late this afternoon into tonight.
06Z Tuesday through 12Z Tuesday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR with
12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure.
06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...trending MVFR/IFR in
00Z Thursday onward...Mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in periods of light