Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KBTV 241931
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
A quiet evening with mostly clear skies. Low pressure in the
Carolinas will bring showers to all the north country on Tuesday and
mainly eastern Vermont on Wednesday. Drier and warmer on Thursday
with a chance of showers possibly returning on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Monday...High pressure to our north dropped a
backdoor cold front earlier today with cooler air across most of the
region, especially in the Champlain Valley where a north wind and
cold lake temperatures only allowed temperatures to reach near 50
Clear skies across the region going into this evening with clouds
lurking across Southern New england as the closed low slowly
meanders north through early Wednesday then eastward.
Return moist flow from High pressure to our north and the surface
low will bring in showers to the region in a few waves on Tuesday.
It will be a cool, damp raw especially across eastern and southern
VT with a good easterly maritime flow. There will be a first wave of
scattered light showers with the initial first surge of
moisture and then as we get caught into the inverted trof from
the coastal low a bit more numerous or pronounce showers
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 359 AM EDT Monday...Surface/Stacked low eventually departs
with best chance of showers across central-eastern VT during
Wednesday, decreasing in coverage during Wednesday. Slow
clearing from west to east Wednesday night, likely holding off
til Thursday for much of VT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Monday...Rain showers associated with coastal
low pressure will exit east and strong southerly flow will
affect the North Country Thursday. Some lingering clouds may
limit warming over eastern Vermont, but generally expect
temperatures in the 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 in the
St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys.
Cooling trend starts with the next chance for rain late
Thursday night into early Friday as surface low pressure moves
from the central Great Lakes region northwestward towards James
Bay Friday morning. Possible cold front or pre-frontal trough
associated with this system could bring convective activity on
Friday. Lots of disparity amongst model guidance with this
system and further into the weekend. Commonalities exist with
blocking Bermuda high developing at the surface, which brings a
moisture plume from the Gulf toward the Northeast. This could
bring another chance for precip on Saturday as the GFS and ECMWF
have energy at 500mb moving from SW towards southern Quebec.
This is reflected at the surface as a cold front with northerly
flow setting up in the front`s wake.
On Sunday, Canadian high pressure centered around James Bay
will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low
moves up the Mississippi Valley reaching the Great Lakes by
Monday morning. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring
more showers late Sunday. GFS and ECMWF in better agreement with
regards to this system. Still differences on track, strength,
etc. Overall expect this system to be capable of producing heavy
rainfall as moisture from the Gulf rides up the ahead of the
cold front and strong winds possible from tight pressure
gradient and strengthening of low. The surface low pressure
center looks to track to our north and west towards Hudsons Bay
sometime on Tuesday.
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly SKC through 04z then gradual
increase in clouds from south to north with slowly approaching
closed low. Scattered showers and cigs AOB 060 enter 10-12z
along MA-VT border and northern border around 16z. Primarily VFR
through period with some MVFR aft 15z at KRUT and possibly KSLK.
Primarily NNE winds aob 10 kts today...largely light overnight
with KRUT witnessing SE 5-7 kts aft 03z then by 10-12z SE winds
around 10 kts for all.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.