Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 291426 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1026 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1026 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL DRYING TREND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE, BUT LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT IN SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. FROUDE NUMBERS DO INDICATE BLOCKED FLOW OVER THE GREENS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY CLOUDY. DON`T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT`S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200 J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI`S AROUND -4 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS) DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY (SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15-16Z AS STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE CEILINGS RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT W-NW AROUND 5 KTS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z AT MPV/SLK...AND NOTED 3-5SM BR ELSEWHERE GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS GIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT`S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED. MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5 PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013. A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT. MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF MIDNIGHT 06/29. AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 1922. AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN 1998. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...BANACOS CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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