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943
FXUS61 KBTV 120802
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather continues today with scattered showers and
cool temperatures. Once again hit and miss type showers are
anticipated with mostly light rainfall as temperatures climb
into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A warm front will produce more
showers on Monday followed by a cold front with showers and
embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday. Highs warm back into the mid
60s to lower 70s on Tuesday, before a slight cooling trend
occurs for midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 344 AM EDT Sunday...Water vapor shows the center of a
closed and vertically stack cyclonic circulation is located near
Buffalo, NY this morning. Meanwhile, radar and sfc obs are
indicating some scattered light rain showers prevail over
northern NY into parts of the CPV, while most of central/eastern
VT remains dry. The theme for today wl be a slightly more robust
areal coverage of showers, especially spine of Green Mtns into
northern NY, including the CPV, but a complete washout is not
anticipated. Timing of areal expansion of precip is challenging,
but thinking highest pops wl be btwn 15z-22z today, with
activity waning toward evening. Have noted a small pocket of sfc
based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg with rather steep sfc to 3 km lapse
rates, so similar to yesterday a rumble or two of thunder is
possible, but feel coverage wl be <10% so have not included in
grids attm. In addition, freezing levels are near 4500 feet or
850mb and given cooling temp profiles aloft, cannot completely
rule out some very localized pea size hail in the stronger
updrafts this aftn, similar to yesterday. Areal coverage and
forecaster confidence is too low to mention in grids attm.
Progged 850mb temps hover near 0C today with 925mb temps of 7 to
8C, supporting highs only in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with
mostly 40s in the mtns above 2000 feet. Based on deepest 850 to
500mb rh progs, weak differential heating boundary, and
rotation of s/w energy around cyclonic circulation I have
likely pops over northern NY with chc pops extending into VT.

As sfc heating wanes and moisture profiles decrease with
building heights tonight, showers wl dissipate with skies
becoming at least partly cloudy, with some mostly clear skies
likely in NY. Based on upstream obs some patchy valley fog is
possible btwn 04z-10z where clearing develops and rain occurs
today, something to watch moving forward, especially as winds
become light overnight. On Monday, clouds quickly overspread the
region from west to east as a warm frnt approaches. Additional
light showers are likely especially btwn 15-21z from northern
NY into portions of VT. Highs on Monday warm back into the 60s
with southerly flow and modest 925mb to 850mb waa.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...Unsettled weather is expected across the
region at the start of the week. Monday morning will start off on
the dry side due to weak upper level ridging, before rain associated
with an incoming warm front arrives in northern New York sometime in
the late morning to early afternoon, marking the start of some
widespread, wetting rainfall across the region. Temperatures during
the day will be seasonable, generally in the 60s. Overnight lows
will be mild due to abundant cloud cover, with temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 PM EDT Saturday...The unsettled weather continues into the
middle of next week, with an upper low located over Quebec and
associated frontal boundary bringing widespread precipitation to the
region. There is a little uncertainty with where the axis of
heaviest rainfall will set up, with deterministic guidance in slight
disagreement. Model sounding are not overly supportive with CAPE
values less than 200 J/kg across most of the area, a rumble or two
of thunder is not out of the question during the day on Tuesday,
especially if clouds are able to clear out during the morning to
allow for more diurnal heating. While ensemble guidances supports
rainfall amounts less than an inch, precipitable water values will
approach 1.25 inches, near the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding
climatology for Albany, so trends will be something to monitor with
future forecasts. Precipitation should begin to taper off towards
Wednesday evening as the upper low shifts to the east. Temperatures
will be seasonable during the day on Tuesday, with highs in the 60s.
Overnight lows will continue to be mild with lingering cloud cover,
in the 40s to mid 50s. Heading into the later half of next week, a
brief period of dry weather looks to build in across the region,
with high temperatures warming into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Unsettled weather continues for the next 6
to 12 hours associated with a slow moving upper level area of
low pres over western NY. Scattered to numerous showers are
anticipated again today, with greater areal coverage, but
vis/cigs mostly in the VFR range. Some lowering of cigs may
produce MVFR conditions at times, especially SLK toward 10z this
morning, with some potential at MPV/RUT and MSS. Showers
decrease in areal coverage toward 00z Monday, with mostly VFR
conditions prevailing. Winds are south/southeast 4 to 8 knots
this morning and become light and variable as center of low pres
tracks just to our south today. There is a <10% chance of a
rumble or two of thunder today, but prob and confidence is too
low to mention at any given taf site attm.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber